How Aliyev won Azerbaijan’s presidential elections for the fifth time in a row.
According to the data of the first exit-poll held at the extraordinary presidential election in Azerbaijan, the overwhelming majority of voters voted for Ilham Aliyev with over 93.9% of the votes cast. Aliyev has already been congratulated by the presidents of Belarus, Uzbekistan, Hungary and Turkey.
A lack of real competition, government pressure on the media, and obstacles to election monitoring by civil society organizations were characterized by the Observer Mission of the Bureau for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) in its interim report dated 31 January in preparation for the snap presidential elections in Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan’s presidential elections have been called early for what is now the second time in a row. The first was in 2018, when the elections scheduled for October took place in April. The postponement of the election date by six months was attributed by presidential assistant Ali Hasanov to the organization of a series of local and international events in the country.
Now, the elections, originally scheduled for 2025, have taken place almost a year and a half earlier, on 7 February 2024.
In 2008, when Ilham Aliyev ran for president for the second time, it was supposed to be his last electoral race, as the Constitution at that time prohibited the same person from being elected president more than twice. However, a year later, a referendum was held that lifted this restriction. As a result, in 2013, Aliyev participated in the elections for the third time.
Snap elections without a legal basis
In the constitutional referendum of 2016, alongside extending the president’s term from five to seven years, the head of state was also granted the right to dissolve the parliament and announce snap presidential elections. Additionally, the positions of the first vice-president and vice-president were created. In the case something happens to the president, the first vice-president would assume the responsibilities until a new head of state is elected. Since 2017, this position has been held by the first lady of the country, Mehriban Aliyeva.
The revised document failed to mention the legal basis for dissolving the parliament and conducting snap elections. These grounds should have been specified, and the regulations for holding such elections should have been incorporated into the Constitution as well. However, this was not done. As a result, the president is now authorized to issue a relevant decree at any time, citing the law.
Political reasons for early elections
In December, Ilham Aliyev announced that snap elections would be held on 7 February. He cited several political factors for this decision. Firstly, he believes that after the events of September 2023 (a local military operation took place in Karabakh on September 19), a new period has begun. The upcoming elections will conclude the previous period and mark the beginning of a new one. Secondly, Aliyev thinks that since presidential elections are the most important of all elections, the first elections to be held across the entire territory of the country must be the presidential elections.
He stated that one additional reason was the completion of 20 years of his presidency in October 2023, which should be seen as a sort of conclusion. However, the opposition found Aliyev’s reasons unconvincing.
Milli Şuranın sədri, professor Cəmil Həsənli ölkə başçısının söylədiklərinə suallarla reaksiya verib:
Jamal Hasanli, who is the Chairman of the National Council as well as a professor, has responded to the President’s recent statements. He raised some questions about the claims made by the President regarding a new period. Jamal asked whether there have been any changes to the country’s constitution, political system, or increased participation of people in governance to justify the notion of a new period. He also questioned whether the well-being of the population has improved or not, especially given instances of corruption revealed in infrastructure projects in the territories once again under Azerbaijani control. Furthermore, he highlighted the increase in the number of political prisoners in 2023 and also the holding of unscheduled, sudden elections during the COVID-19 quarantine period. Jamal suggested that the new period may manifest itself in someone using their state-granted privileges to gain advanced knowledge about the sudden elections.
Hasanli questions the feasibility of holding elections across the entirety of the country, including territories that were not previously under Azerbaijani control. He raises the point that less than 3,000 displaced individuals have returned to these territories, and questions whether it is practical to transport remaining displaced individuals to their native lands in order to vote. As an alternative, he suggests that these individuals can vote in Sumgayit, Baku, or on the Mugan-Mil plain.
Elections and Karabakh
The conflict in Karabakh began in 1988 and has been the main reason for the change of power in Azerbaijan over the past 33 years. Ayaz Mutallibov, who took office in 1990, lost power two years later. The Supreme Council attributed Mutallibov’s departure from the presidency to the Khojaly tragedy in Azerbaijan. In 1992, Abulfaz Elchibey took over the country. In April 1993, Kalbajar was occupied, and when a military rebellion occurred in Ganja in June of the same year, Elchibey also had to step down from the presidential chair.
In the first few months of Heydar Aliyev’s rule, who became president in 1993, Armenian forces occupied six districts. However, unlike his predecessors, he did not continue the war, agreed to a ceasefire, and during his ten-year rule, there were no further military actions.
The military defeats of the 1990’s, the discrediting of the leaders of the national liberation movement believed in by the people, and the difficult socio-economic situation deeply traumatized the Azerbaijani people and society on a subconscious level.
In the 17th year of Ilham Aliyev’s rule, a new war began, and in the following three years, the Armenian population was expelled from Karabakh. On the day of the expulsion of Armenian forces from Shusha, Ilham Aliyev was congratulated even by Ali Kerimli and Isa Gambar, who had previously been in irreconcilable opposition to him.
In the 2003 elections, Ilham Aliyev’s opponent Etibar Mammadov acknowledged that the people should be grateful to Ilham Aliyev for the liberation of Karabakh. Another candidate, Lala Shovkat Hajiyeva, also praised Aliyev’s achievement, stating that Shusha has great significance for Azerbaijan and that Aliyev mobilized the nation to solve this difficult task. These statements from Aliyev’s long-time opposition figures and main opponents essentially show that they saw no alternative to him. As a result, society’s attitude towards Aliyev was positively impacted. Later on, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and leaders of several Western countries recognized Karabakh as an integral part of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani propaganda presented this as a success of their diplomacy.
Over the past three years, there has been a noticeable change in public opinion towards Ilham Aliyev. Some individuals who were previously opposed to his government have changed their stance. For instance, Javanshir Guliyev, a composer who went into exile to protest Aliyev’s regime, has announced his intention to vote for him in the upcoming presidential elections. Similarly, Akif Islamzade, a singer who used to be a member of the opposition party Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan, has advocated for the cancellation of elections and the establishment of Aliyev as the eternal president. Rais Rasulzade, the grandson of Muhammad Amin Rasulzade, the founder of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic in 1918, has claimed that his grandfather would have voted for Ilham Aliyev if he were alive today. Moreover, during the current pre-election campaign, all other presidential candidates have expressed gratitude to Aliyev for his actions in Karabakh. Given this context, it is reasonable to assume that scheduling the elections at a time when Ilham Aliyev’s approval rating is at an all-time high was a calculated decision.
Thus, going into the elections, Aliyev has:
- a grateful population,
- a fragmented, weakened opposition under constant pressure,
- a destroyed press and civil society.
Now, let’s delve into the details.
“Pre-election” Laws on Media and Parties
The current pre-election political situation in Azerbaijan is vastly different than before the previous elections. For 30 years, the politically active part of society and independent opposition media usually faced pressure after elections; this time everything was the opposite. And most importantly, in 2022-2023, new laws regarding media and political parties were adopted.
Independent journalists have spoken out against the new media law, which was adopted on December 30, 2021. Even during the discussion of the bill in the Azerbaijani parliament, they stated that the new law would significantly restrict the activities of the media. Mehman Aliyev, the director of the independent Turan News Agency, noted that the purpose of this law is to strengthen the state’s control over the media. Media law expert Alaskar Mammadli reported that “the new law imposes too many requirements on journalists, many of which do not comply with the Convention.”
“The new law imposes too many requirements on journalists, many of which do not comply with the Convention.”
Alaskar Mammadli, media law expert
The Venice Commission of the Council of Europe, in its conclusion, rejected the Media law and emphasized that such a law should not be applied in a Council of Europe member country. In particular, the Commission went through certain provisions of the law: “In the context that in Azerbaijan the space for independent journalism and media is already extremely limited, this law will have an even more inhibitory effect. Many provisions do not comply with European standards of freedom of expression and the press and do not allow the media to effectively perform the role of a ‘public watchdog.’ For these reasons, the law should not be applied in its current form.”
The Venice Commission urged the Azerbaijani authorities to urgently do the following:
- The media registry should be scrapped, or the overly strict requirements for entry into the registry should be removed.
- Conditions for media accreditation should be removed.
- Restrictions in the law on content should be brought into line with Article 10 of the European Convention.
- Articles on protecting journalists’ sources should be amended.
- The requirement for a license for platform broadcasters should be removed.
- It is enough to notify state structures to publish and distribute print and online media.
The Commission has raised concerns about the inaccurate definition of the term “journalist” in the law and the prohibition of covert filming. The conclusion of the Commission suggests that the definition of the term “journalist” in the document should be expanded, and covert filming should be allowed if it serves the interests of society. The Commission also stressed the need to review the model of forming the regulatory structure for television and radio broadcasting.
The 2023 report by the international organization “Reporters Without Borders” highlights the poor state of the press in Azerbaijan. According to the organization’s compiled Media Freedom Index, Azerbaijan ranked 151st out of 180 countries worldwide.
Furthermore, changing the phrase “mass media” to “media entities” in the Electoral Code raises questions about the future of independent media organizations. The amendments were introduced to ensure the implementation of paragraph 4.1 of the presidential decree of April 8, 2023, No. 2089, which requires the alignment of the laws and acts of the president of Azerbaijan with the Media Law.
Anar Mammadli, who is the chairman of the Election Monitoring and Democracy Training Center, expressed his concern that the recent amendments made to the Political Parties Law in Azerbaijan would have a negative impact on the ability of journalists to cover the electoral process. He believes that this would limit the transparency of the electoral process as a whole. Mammadli stated that the amendments would restrict the access of journalists to information and, as a result, only a select few journalists would be able to cover the elections.
The Political Parties Law, which was signed by Ilham Aliyev on 11 January 2023, has faced criticism both within the country and abroad. The Venice Commission and the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights jointly addressed the problematic nature of this law. They noted that the new law introduced several provisions that could restrict pluralism in the country. The commission also highlighted the importance of political parties as collective instruments of political self-expression and emphasized that these parties must have the opportunity to fully enjoy their rights. This means that registration requirements must be reasonable and state control over political parties should be limited. The commission also stated that extensive state control over the internal functioning of a political party, including the requirement to provide lists of its members to the state, is an excessive measure incompatible with the principles of necessity. The suspension and dissolution of political parties should only be applied in the most serious cases of regulatory legal violations.
Despite the Venice Commission and the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights calling on the Azerbaijani authorities to eliminate flaws in the law, this proposal was ignored. As a result, the law was passed and several political parties were dissolved.
Over 20 parties declared their self-dissolution within two months of a new law coming into force. However, the Liberal and Republican People’s Parties were dissolved without their knowledge. On June 24, the VIII Congress of the Liberal Party was held online, where the party’s chairman, Avaz Temirhan, was re-elected. He stated that the congress had decided to temporarily suspend the party’s activities until new parliamentary elections, which meant a temporary suspension until 31 December. However, the party was unaware that news of its termination had been published by the news website musavat.com.
Re-registration: Who’s first?
In June 2023, the process of party re-registration began in Azerbaijan. The ruling party, Yeni Azerbaijan, was the first to be registered, followed by the “White Party,” the Civil Solidarity Party, the Movement of National Revival, the National Front, Motherland-Mother, Law and Justice, and other parties that supported the government’s policies. However, opposition parties like the People’s Front of Azerbaijan, Musavat, REAL, and the Party of National Independence of Azerbaijan, were denied at the preliminary stage on the basis of lists they submitted to the Ministry of Justice.
After the ruling party was registered, opposition parties were finally registered. Twenty-three parties sent a thank-you letter to Ilham Aliyev for the registration. The adoption of the Media and Political Parties laws did not meet the commitments on political freedoms that the Azerbaijani authorities had undertaken before the Council of Europe.
Pre-election arrests
In December 2022, Bakhtiyar Hajiyev, a prominent civil activist, was arrested on charges of “hooliganism with resistance to a person performing duties to maintain public order” and “disrespect for the court.” By 16 June 2023, he was faced with new charges, including “illegal entrepreneurship,” “money laundering from criminal proceeds,” “smuggling,” and “use of counterfeit documents.” In November, he was further charged with tax evasion.
In July 2023, Gubad Ibadoglu, the chairman of the Party of Democracy and Prosperity and a renowned economist, was arrested. While he was charged with Article 204.3.1 of the Criminal Code, which pertains to counterfeiting, acquisition, or sale of counterfeit money or securities committed by an organized group, he associates his arrest with his political activities and research related to construction work in Karabakh.
Starting from 20 November, the leadership and staff of the online publication AbzasMedia were arrested. AbzasMedia is known for its high-profile journalistic investigations in recent years. Criminal cases were initiated against the director Ulvi Hasanli, deputy director Mahammad Kekalov, chief editor Sevinj Vagifgizi, reporter Nergiz Absalamova, and investigative journalist Hafiz Babali, reporter Elnara Gasimova under Article 206.3.2 (smuggling committed by a group of persons by prior conspiracy). The pension and salary accounts of Sevinj Vagifgizi’s mother, Ulvi Hasanli mother and sister, and economist Togrul Valiyev, who was accused of collaborating with the site, were also blocked.
Note: On April 11, 2018, during the extraordinary presidential elections in Azerbaijan, Sevinj Vagifgizi was fined 1000 AZN for video recording at polling stations. The journalist was sued by the deputy director of Secondary School No. 251, Elmira Alandarova, for capturing election fraud, specifically "carousel." After a years-long court case, Vagifgizi won.
Several individuals have been arrested and charged with various offenses in Azerbaijan recently. On 27 November, Aziz Orujov, the head of the Kanal 13 internet channel, was arrested for violating property rights and later, on 19 December, he faced new charges of smuggling. On 6 December , civil activist Ilhamiz Guliyev was arrested for drug-related offenses, followed by the arrest of journalists Teymur Karimov and Shamo Eminov. On 14 December, Tofig Yagublu, a member of the National Council and Musavat Party, was arrested for fraud and counterfeiting. Araz Aliyev, the co-founder of the Third Republic political platform, was detained on 23 December, and sentenced to 25 days of administrative arrest, and his computer and personal belongings have not been returned. Finally, Arzu Sayadoglu, the head and host of his own YouTube channel, was detained in January 2024 and remanded in custody for four months, following his criticism of the political situation in the country and official arbitrariness.
Electoral recommendations and commissions without opposition
It’s important to recall the suggestions that the OSCE provided to the country’s officials following the extraordinary presidential elections of 2018. This sheds light on the current pre-election scenario. The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, in its ultimate report on the 2018 early elections, observed that the process of appointing election commissions should ensure impartial election management in practice.
It was suggested to enhance the impartiality and public trust of election commissions by reassessing their composition. One of the key recommendations was to decriminalize defamation, including online content. However, despite these recommendations, they haven’t been implemented yet. Under Azerbaijan’s Election Code, Article 22, any commission member who violates the law must be removed from their position. The European Court of Human Rights has issued more than 100 rulings regarding the violations that took place during the 2005-2010-2015 elections in Azerbaijan.
Lawyer Asabali Mustafayev stated that he has sent over 30 complaints regarding violations in the 2020 elections to the ECtHR. Most of the complaints were from Baku, Sumgayit, and Absheron, as there are fewer lawyers in the regions. Interestingly, there have never been any complaints from Nakhchivan to the ECtHR about election violations.
The lawyer pointed out that the ECtHR has already made decisions about the composition of the commissions that allowed the violation and said that these commissions should have been changed. However, this did not happen. The complaints addressed to the European Court are mainly about the composition of commissions, the procedure for considering complaints by the Central Election Commission and local courts, and the registration process.
The Council of Europe has released the Venice Commission’s opinion and recommendations on the composition of election commissions, but nothing has changed. Despite the ECtHR decisions, electoral legislation is becoming even stricter.
The opposition party has secretaries in 8 out of 125 districts and members in 320 out of 6319 polling stations. Opposition party with secretaries in 8 out of 125 districts and members in 320 out of 6319 polling stations
After winning the 2020 parliamentary elections, Erkin Gadirli of the REAL party managed to secure positions for his party members in regional and precinct election commissions. Although the Central Election Commission (CEC) did not accept the REAL party’s nomination of Metin Ragimov as a member of the commission.
Natiq Jafarli, a member of the REAL party’s political committee, reported that the party has two secretaries in Baku, and commission members in 320 polling stations across Sumgait and other regions. The numbers may seem small, considering there are 125 districts and 6319 polling stations, but the REAL party has made a significant impact on the composition of district and precinct commissions.
Civil society at an impasse
Representatives of independent civil society observed the early elections on 7 February and the Election Observers Alliance will publish an assessment document. However, the Center for Election Monitoring and Democracy Training could not apply to the Central Election Commission (CEC) because it is not registered. Its registration was annulled by the Ministry of Justice in 2008. Although the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) issued a decision in 2021 to restore its registration, the Supreme Court of Azerbaijan has not yet considered the case.
To understand the current situation, it is important to recall the government’s total pressure on civil society around ten years ago. Harsh amendments were made to the legislation in 2013-2014, which practically disabled the sector.
There are over 4,000 registered NGOs in Azerbaijan, according to lawyer Khalid Agayev. However, this number is much smaller than Georgia, where more than 20,000 NGOs operate with a population of about 4 million, and Estonia, with less than 1.5 million people and over 34,000 NGOs.
Agayev says that in 2013 and 2014, around 40 restrictive amendments were made to the laws regulating the activities of NGOs. While commercial legal entities can be registered within three working days, NGO registration takes 40 days, and if additional scrutiny is required, another 30 days are added to this period. Thus, the NGO registration process can take a total of 140 calendar days. And this is only if all the procedures prescribed by law are followed.
However, in practice, the situation is even worse. According to the amendments, if an NGO receives more than two written warnings or orders to rectify violations within a year, the organization can be liquidated by a court decision based on an application from the Ministry of Justice. Administrative liability is also burdensome – the Administrative Offenses Code, which came into force in 2016, provides quite serious fines for NGOs: over 25,000 AZN.
“Access to grants for NGOs has become almost impossible. In June 2015, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the ‘procedure for registering grant agreements,’ and then the government established the ‘procedure for foreign donors to obtain the right to provide grants on the territory of Azerbaijan.’ The Justice Ministry’s board also added rules for ‘examining the activities of NGOs, branches, or representative offices of NGOs of foreign states,'” adds Khalid Agayev.
He explains that in May 2014, the Prosecutor General’s Office liquidated major NGOs, initiating criminal cases against them based on the Ministry of Justice’s data. Bank accounts of major NGOs were frozen, their leaders and employees were banned from leaving the country, and they were prosecuted. Plus, tax audits were initiated, and hefty fines were imposed.
These tax audits targeted the Democracy and Human Rights Resource Center, the Azerbaijan Lawyers Association, the Institute for Media Rights, the Institute for Peace and Democracy, the Center for Election Monitoring and Democracy Training, the Human Rights Club, the Society for Legal Enlightenment, the Center for Democratic Journalism, the Institute for Freedom and Safety of Reporters, the Center for National and International Studies, the Public Association for International Volunteer Cooperation, and other organizations.
“The total amount of tax fines imposed exceeds 1 million AZN. Local and foreign NGOs have been subjected to tax fines exceeding 3 million AZN. Many of them have left the country.”
Organization of presidential candidate to conduct exit polls
The League for the Defense of Citizens’ Labor Rights has been registered with the Central Election Commission (CEC) for conducting exit polls. The organization is set to collaborate with the American organization ORACLE ADVISORY Group at 50 polling stations across 40 electoral districts. Meanwhile, the Opinion Monitoring Center will cover 200 stations in 33 districts, and the Center for Sociological Research will be present at 125 stations in 25 districts.
It is worth noting that the independence of these structures has been called into question. During the extraordinary presidential elections in 2018, the Opinion Monitoring Center conducted an exit poll, which saw Ilham Aliyev, nominated by the ruling party Yeni Azerbaijan, emerge victorious with a result of 84.49% of the votes.
The chairman of the League for the Defense of Citizens’ Labor Rights, Sahib Mamedov, is known for his proximity to the government. He has confirmed his support for the statement of the Azerbaijani delegation to the Council of Europe, where he asserted that the “Council of Europe was not created for benevolent purposes,” and the “collective West” united against Azerbaijan.
Meanwhile, the chairman of the Center for Sociological Research, Zahid Oruj, has officially stepped down from leading the organization. However, according to the results of all surveys conducted by the center in previous years, Ilham Aliyev consistently had the highest ratings.
Ilham Aliyev’s “opponents“
Several candidates are challenging Ilham Aliyev, who has led the country for 20 years. These challengers include deputies Fazil Mustafa, Zahid Oruj, Gudrat Gasanguliyev, and Razi Nurullaev, as well as the chairman of the Great Azerbaijan Party, Elshad Musayev, and the chairman of the Independent Trade Union, Fuad Aliyev. Three of the mentioned deputies also lead parties: Fazil Mustafa heads the “Great Creation” party, Gudrat Gasanguliyev leads the party of the Whole Azerbaijan National Front, and Razi Nurullaev leads the National Front.
Gudrat Gasanguliyev has participated in all presidential elections over the past 20 years, receiving about 7.79% of the votes in total (0.50% in 2003; 2.28% in 2008; 1.99% in 2013; and 3.02% in 2018). However, he received fewer votes than Zahid Oruj in the 2018 elections. Thus, based on the CEC results, Zahid Oruj represents the main opposition.
Zahid Oruj first participated in the presidential elections in 2013, officially gaining 1.45% of the votes. In the 2018 elections, he surpassed several other candidates, securing 3.12% of the votes. In total, Oruj’s votes over the two elections amount to 4.57%.
Fuad Aliyev, the chairman of the Independent Trade Union, is also running for president for the second time. He made his first attempt in 2008, receiving less than one percent of the votes (0.78%). Despite submitting 40,000 signatures to the CEC for the registration of his candidacy, only 28,423 people ultimately voted for Fuad Aliyev.
Elshad Musayev, the chairman of the Great Azerbaijan Party, is participating in the presidential elections for the first time. Although he claims to have nominated himself in 2003, the CEC did not register him at that time.
However, the major opposition parties have decided to boycott the elections due to the current political conditions. The number of political prisoners in the country has doubled, there has been a complete absence of freedom of assembly for the past five years, the last remnants of the media are being destroyed, the opposition is treated as enemies, torture in prisons has become commonplace, electoral commissions are under government control, and votes are not properly counted.
Ali Karimli, the chairman of the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan (PFPA), stated that it is impossible to hold elections under such conditions and that the PFPA will boycott the elections. The Musavat Party participated in presidential elections only once in 2003, nominating Isa Gambar. Although, according to official information, he took second place, the party claimed that the results were falsified. In 2013, Musavat supported the candidacy of Jamiyat Gashamli from the National Council.
The Classical Popular Front holds a similar position, stating that electoral commissions are under full government control, freedoms are trampled upon, there are political prisoners, and all of this indicates the absence of an atmosphere of democratic elections. The Classical Popular Front also did not nominate its candidate for the elections, and in 2003, it supported Isa Gambar.
The Civic Unity Party also refused to participate in the 7 February elections but considers the current president the main favorite in the race. The party’s chairman, Sabir Rustamkhanli, ran for president only once in 2003.
Although the REAL Party does not participate in the elections, it encourages the population to vote. The party believes that the election observation institute on 7 February should be expanded in preparation for parliamentary elections.
The political platform Third Republic also announced that it will neither nominate its candidate nor support any existing candidates. One of the main reasons cited for the platform’s non-participation in the elections is that it was recently established and lacks financial and personnel resources.
The platform has stated that while it supports individual participation in voting to preserve the habit of voting, it does not rule out other steps related to the elections. According to the platform, participation in voting is important to maintain the skills of elections and election traditions should be preserved. These traditions should be preserved for the future when favorable conditions are created.
Unregistered Candidates
Several individuals attempted to nominate themselves for the presidency, including lawyers Namizad Safarov, Metleb Muttallimli, and Sarvan Kerimov, but the Central Election Commission (CEC) did not accept their applications.
Namizad Safarov complained that there was insufficient time given to collect signatures. He stated that he had submitted documents to the CEC to obtain signature sheets on 25 December, but they were only issued to him on 31 December. Despite contacting the commission regularly since 21 December and visiting the CEC every day until 25 December, he was told by the police standing at the doors to call on the phone. Finally, on 25 December, his documents were accepted.
Metleb Muttallimli, an unsuccessful candidate, claims that the authorities created favorable conditions for appointed candidates, but their applications are not being considered. Muttallimli and Namizad Safarov, their authorized representative, visited the Central Election Commission repeatedly, but they were not allowed in, and no one came out to hear their complaints. Muttallimli accuses the Azerbaijani authorities of complete disregard for their complaints.
Another aspiring candidate, Sarvan Karimov, plans to file a lawsuit to annul Ilham Aliyev’s registration. Kerimov claims that Aliyev’s photos were plastered all over the country even before the start of the pre-election campaign. He also accuses the authorities of advocating for Aliyev every day on television, which violates Article 75.2 of the Election Code. According to Karimov, the campaign should start 23 days before the election date, but the Azerbaijani authorities ignore this rule.
Political analyst Arastun Orujlu also intended to run but faced bureaucratic obstacles while submitting his documents to the Central Election Commission. The pre-election campaign officially started on 15 January and candidates are required to pay 18,000 AZN per day for the use of airtime.
Seven candidates have submitted reports on their electoral funds. Ilham Aliyev is leading with 250,000 AZN in his fund, which came from the party’s account. However, the expenditure part of the report is empty. Gudrat Hasanguliyev, the presidential candidate from the Whole Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, is in second place with about 20,000 AZN in his fund. Hasanquliyev pointed out that 10,000 constitute special funds, and another 10,000 are funds received from individuals. According to him, 15,000 AZN from this amount were directed to financially support the process of collecting voter signatures.
The self-nominated candidate Zahir Oruj has 19,000 AZN in his fund, of which 8,000 were also spent on signature collection.
In the financial report of Fazil Mustafa, a candidate from the Great Creation Party, it is noted that he has 10,000 AZN as special funds, out of which 8,000 AZN have already been spent. On the other hand, Razi Nurullayev, self-nominated candidate Fuad Aliyev, and Elshad Musayev, the chairman of the Great Azerbaijan Party, have the smallest electoral funds.
Razi Nurullayev reported receiving 3,000 AZN from individuals, but he didn’t specify how he spent the money. Elshad Musayev, on the other hand, stated that he received 1,500 AZN from individuals and prefers meeting voters in regions rather than using paid airtime. Fuad Aliyev indicated 2,000 AZN in his financial report, and his authorized representative Khazar Teiyublu stated that there are currently no plans to use paid airtime or publish campaign materials.
Mamed Mamedzade, the chairman of the Election Observers Alliance, reported that a candidate must pay 18,000 AZN daily for 10 minutes of airtime. They need to pay 36,000 AZN, for two TV channels which will make it 396,000 AZN for 22 days. If the candidate wants to be on three TV channels, the cost is around 1.2 million AZN. However, this cost is only for airtime between 8:00 PM and 10:00 PM, and it is expensive at 30 AZN per second. Morning hours are a bit cheaper.
According to Mamedzade, these amounts do not correspond to the electoral funds of not only candidates with modest amounts but even to those of the ruling party’s funds.
Without PACE and ECtHR?
On 24 January, the delegation of Azerbaijan to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) made an announcement stating that they would be suspending their cooperation with PACE and their participation in the organization indefinitely. The head of the delegation, Samed Seidov, cited the unfair treatment of Azerbaijan by PACE, as well as the organization’s Islamophobic and Azerbaijaniphobic tendencies, as the reasons for their decision.
On 25 January, a vote was held to deprive the Azerbaijani delegation of their voting rights until the January session of PACE in 2025. The outcome of the vote was 76 in favor, 10 against, and four abstentions. During the discussions leading up to the decision, speakers highlighted the lack of media freedom and the presence of political prisoners in Azerbaijan, as well as the fact that Azerbaijan did not invite the PACE delegation to observe the presidential elections on 7 February.
On 1 February, President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, expressed strong criticism during a meeting with the Secretary-General of the Inter-Parliamentary Union, Martin Chungong. Aliyev stated that PACE’s decision contradicts the traditions of the parliamentary platform, and demanded that the rights of the Azerbaijani delegation be restored. Aliyev warned that if their rights were not restored, Azerbaijan would reconsider their participation in the Council of Europe and the European Court of Human Rights.
