Caspian Report: Russia’s Leverage on Ukraine

Remember how optimistic the media was during the Arab Spring? For some reason people were expecting the new governments to endorse freedom, liberty and democracy. And remember how disappointing and violent the Arab Spring turned out to be? The thing is, revolutions are hard to predict. Endless media exposure gives the idea that we know what is taking place in the streets, but from past experiences we know that it is often misleading. For example, in the case of the Euromaidan, did the crowd truly represent every segment of Ukrainian society? Perhaps that is what the Polish, German and French officials believed when they negotiated the agreement between the opposition and the former president Yanukovych. But I don’t believe the crowds in Kiev properly represented the interests of Eastern Ukraine, or even Crimea. I don’t believe the neo-nazi, who dominated the crowd truly represented the modern Ukrainian society.

In many parts of the country people are still angry and bitter over the results of the Kiev uprising. It doesnt mean they liked Yanukovych, it just means they wish to be part of Ukraine’s new government. Three of the country’s leading parties are not even represented in the new cabinet. Now it is true that the Eastern and the Crimean population (both of which have a pro-Russian stance) can be represented in the parliament. However, then the new government might return to its old constraints that created the crisis in the first place.

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