This week saw the announcement of U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s visit, scheduled for next week, to Azerbaijan and Armenia following the opening of the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Abu Dhabi to discuss expanding economic ties, and the European Union introduced new regulations requiring verification of the origin of Azerbaijani gas entering the bloc.
US Vice President JD Vance visits Azerbaijan and Armenia after Winter Olympics
On 6 February, US Vice President Jay Dee Vance arrived in Milan to lead the US delegation at the opening ceremony of the 2026 Winter Olympics, which included Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Ambassador to Italy Tilman Fertitta, and Vance’s wife, Usha Vance. Following the Milan events, Vance is scheduled to travel to Armenia on 9 February and to Azerbaijan later as part of a regional diplomatic mission.
The trip aims to advance a White House brokered agreement intended to end decades of conflict in the South Caucasus and strengthen US influence as Russia’s regional influence wanes. Under the framework, Armenia and Azerbaijan have committed to reopening key transport routes, enhancing cooperation with the US in energy, technology, and economic development, and creating a major transit corridor called the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) that links Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory.
The Coordination Center for Azerbaijani Political Emigrants (ASIMKOM) has urged U.S. Vice President James David Vance, who is due to visit Baku as part of this regional trip, to raise concerns about human rights in Azerbaijan, particularly the detention of journalists, opposition activists, and civil society figures on what it says are politically motivated charges. The organization states that at least 340 people are recognized as political prisoners, which constitutes violations of international obligations and fundamental freedoms. The appeal asked Vance to press Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on these issues during their meeting, drawing on U.S. precedents of addressing political prisoners in relations with countries such as Belarus and Venezuela. ASIMKOM hopes that a firm U.S. stance could encourage the unconditional release of these detainees. Vance’s visit, following an earlier stop in Armenia, is part of U.S. efforts to advance a peace agreement aimed at ending the long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Officials have not confirmed whether human rights concerns will be formally addressed during the visit, but the trip signals continued U.S. engagement in regional peace efforts. Mark Short, who served as Chief of Staff to Vice President Mike Pence during Donald Trump’s first term, noted that vice presidential foreign trips often depend on the President’s own travel plans, and some visits can include unexpected meetings. He emphasized that, given the President’s heavy responsibilities, it is important for the U.S. to be represented at the highest level, a responsibility that often falls to the Vice President.
Aliyev and Pashinyan discuss economic cooperation and trade in Abu Dhabi
On 4 February, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Abu Dhabi, UAE, to explore opportunities to expand trade and economic ties between their countries. The meeting, which took place during the presentation ceremony of the “The Zayed Award for Human Fraternity” focused on the ongoing implementation of the 2025 Washington Peace Summit outcomes.
The leaders highlighted the start of bilateral trade, including shipments of Azerbaijani oil products to Armenia and transit of grain and other cargo from third countries through Azerbaijani territory. They also discussed transportation and connectivity projects, including TRIPP, and expressed readiness to continue direct dialogue to strengthen peace and stability. Civil society exchanges between the two countries were positively evaluated as a tool to build trust.
The historic Washington agreement, signed with US facilitation in August 2025, affirmed mutual recognition of territorial integrity and established a transit connection between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan passing through southern Armenia.
Europe to verify Azerbaijani gas origin under new EU regulation
On 2 February, the European Parliament and Council enacted Regulation 2026/261, legally requiring all EU member states to phase out Russian natural gas by the end of 2027. The law specifically mentions Azerbaijan and Turkey, mandating that gas imported to the EU be verified as non-Russian in origin, particularly at the Strandzha-1/Malkoclar connection on the Bulgaria-Turkey border.
The regulation obliges gas suppliers to provide documentation confirming that exported gas is produced locally and not sourced from Russia, with penalties for non-compliance including fines up to €40 million or 3.5% of annual turnover, as well as possible criminal charges. The EU’s move reflects a continued strategy to diversify energy sources following historic disruptions in Russian supply, including the 2022 Ukraine war.
Azerbaijan has become a critical gas supplier to Europe, with exports reaching 13 billion cubic meters in 2025, potentially rising to 17 billion in 2026 via the TANAP and TAP pipelines. The EU’s new rules aim to ensure transparency in supply chains and reinforce European energy security, despite objections from countries such as Hungary and Slovakia, which have threatened legal challenges.
