On December 29, 2024, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev gave an interview to Azerbaijan Television (AzTV), where he made serious accusations against Russia regarding the tragic crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) passenger plane on December 25, 2024. The crash occurred near Aktau, Kazakhstan, and Aliyev’s statements focused on Russian involvement in the incident.
According to Aliyev, the plane, which was en route from Baku to Grozny, was struck by external forces while flying over Russian territory near Grozny. He stated that the aircraft had been hit by gunfire from the ground and was also affected by electronic warfare systems, which caused the plane to lose control. Aliyev rejected the initial explanation that the crash had been caused by a “bird strike,” calling it a misleading and inaccurate theory. “This clearly showed that the Russian side was trying to cover up the issue, and of course, this brings no honor to anyone,” he said during the interview.
Aliyev’s interview came one day after a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had called to offer an apology for the crash, which occurred in Russian airspace. However, Putin did not take responsibility for the incident. The two leaders discussed the need for a thorough investigation into the tragedy and the accountability of those responsible. Despite this conversation, Aliyev’s statements raised questions within Azerbaijan, as he sharply criticized Russia’s initial handling of the incident.
Aliyev remarked that for the first three days after the crash, Russian officials had put forward “absurd versions” to explain what had happened. He specifically called out the theory that the crash was caused by an exploding gas cylinder or a bird strike, calling these suggestions “foolish and immoral.” “The damage caused by the shrapnel to the passengers and crew members is clear,” he said, underscoring the external nature of the damage. His comments were seen by some as a demonstration of political resolve, while others viewed them as an attempt to calm public opinion and de-escalate tensions with Russia. Some even speculated that the interview was part of a “coordinated” effort to manage the crisis.
What’s Really Happening?
Political analyst Rauf Mirqadirov, in an interview with Meydan TV, suggested that Russia had not made a significant acknowledgment of its role in the incident. While Putin’s apology was framed as a response to the crash occurring in Russian airspace, Mirqadirov pointed out that it did not imply Russian responsibility for causing the crash. He noted that the Russian intelligence services had likely been aware from the beginning that a civilian plane had been struck, and that misleading information could not have spread without their involvement. “Putin knew this very well, and it was Putin himself who was trying to cover it up,” Mirqadirov said.
Russia Believes Baku Has Few International Allies
Mirqadirov also discussed the political implications of the incident for Azerbaijan. He argued that Russia’s behavior highlighted significant issues in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy. “This incident has revealed significant problems and inequality in Azerbaijan-Russia relations,” he stated, emphasizing that Russia had attempted to cover up the incident. Mirqadirov further noted that Russia seemed to believe it had significant influence over Azerbaijan, assuming that Baku had few international allies. “While they may not be allies with Azerbaijan, the world is closely watching Russia’s actions and responding accordingly,” he concluded.
Inaccuracies in Aliyev’s Statement
However, Mirqadirov also expressed concerns over potential inaccuracies in Aliyev’s statements. He pointed out that during the phone call between Aliyev and Putin, the Russian president had apologized only for the crash occurring in Russian airspace, without acknowledging responsibility for the incident itself. “In his interview, Aliyev should have clarified this discrepancy,” he said, suggesting that Aliyev’s comments lacked some necessary precision.
The Crash and Ongoing Investigations
The crash occurred on the morning of December 25, when an AZAL plane, flying from Baku to Grozny, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan. Among the 67 people on board, 42 were Azerbaijani, 16 were Russian, 6 were Kazakh, and 3 were Kyrgyz. Thirty-eight people lost their lives, while 29 survived. On December 27, AZAL confirmed that the cause of the crash was “external physical and technical interference.” The next day, Russian President Vladimir Putin called Aliyev to offer his apology, but he did not accept responsibility for the incident.
The Kremlin issued a statement claiming that the plane had attempted multiple landings at Grozny Airport and that Grozny, Mozdok, and Vladikavkaz had been under attack by Ukrainian drones at the time, which were intercepted by Russian air defense systems. Meanwhile, the Russian Investigative Committee opened a criminal case into violations of flight safety and aircraft operation regulations. Azerbaijan also initiated its own criminal investigation for violations of air transport safety rules, as well as negligence leading to the deaths of multiple people.
In the aftermath of the crash, Western media reports, citing sources within the Azerbaijani government, indicated that the plane may have been shot down by a Russian missile near Grozny. In response, AZAL suspended flights to several Russian cities, signaling a possible shift in Azerbaijan’s aviation policy.
This tragic incident has further complicated the already tense relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia, with differing narratives emerging from both sides and calls for a full and transparent investigation into the cause of the crash.
