{"id":344730,"date":"2026-05-06T17:14:01","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T13:14:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/?p=344730"},"modified":"2026-05-06T17:26:02","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T13:26:02","slug":"iran-savasi-az%c9%99rbaycan-bu-muharib%c9%99d%c9%99n-nec%c9%99-iqtisadi-v%c9%99-siyasi-qazanc-%c9%99ld%c9%99-etdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/iran-savasi-az%c9%99rbaycan-bu-muharib%c9%99d%c9%99n-nec%c9%99-iqtisadi-v%c9%99-siyasi-qazanc-%c9%99ld%c9%99-etdi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131: Az\u0259rbaycan bu m\u00fcharib\u0259d\u0259n nec\u0259 iqtisadi v\u0259 siyasi qazanc \u0259ld\u0259 etd\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 son ba\u015f ver\u0259nl\u0259r t\u0259kc\u0259 regionun t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259sini deyil, d\u00fcnya iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131 da silk\u0259l\u0259yib. AB\u015e v\u0259 \u0130srailin \u0130rana qar\u015f\u0131 h\u0259rbi \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar\u0131, Tehran\u0131n buna cavab olaraq regional h\u0259rbi v\u0259 enerji infrastrukturunu h\u0259d\u0259f\u0259 almas\u0131 neft bazarlar\u0131nda d\u0259rhal hiss olundu. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u0259sas etalon markas\u0131 olan Brent neftinin qiym\u0259ti may\u0131n \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259 114 dollar\u0131 ke\u00e7\u0259r\u0259k son d\u00f6rd ilin \u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k s\u0259viyy\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259n birin\u0259 qalxd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bunun \u0259sas s\u0259b\u0259bi fiziki neft q\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yox, onun yaranaca\u011f\u0131 ehtimal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7\u00fcnki d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnd\u0259lik neft ticar\u0259tinin t\u0259xmin\u0259n be\u015fd\u0259 biri Fars k\u00f6rf\u0259zi il\u0259 Oman k\u00f6rf\u0259zi aras\u0131nda yerl\u0259\u015f\u0259n H\u00f6rm\u00fcz bo\u011faz\u0131ndan ke\u00e7ir. Bu mar\u015frutda h\u0259rbi risk artd\u0131qca bazar da riskl\u0259ri qiym\u0259t\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 edir. Tramp administrasiyas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130rana qar\u015f\u0131 s\u0259rt kursu v\u0259 \u0130srailin Tehran\u0131 birba\u015fa h\u0259d\u0259f\u0259 almas\u0131 bu riski daha da b\u00f6y\u00fctd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Region \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bu, yeni humanitar v\u0259 siyasi b\u00f6hran dem\u0259kdir. Amma enerji ixracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 v\u0259 tranzit \u00f6lk\u0259 kimi Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bu b\u00f6hran eyni zamanda iqtisadi imkan p\u0259nc\u0259r\u0259si d\u0259 a\u00e7\u0131b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tarix g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 b\u00f6hranlar \u00e7ox vaxt Bak\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn neft g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin artmas\u0131, d\u00f6vl\u0259tin imkanlar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fl\u0259nm\u0259si v\u0259 geosiyasi \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tinin y\u00fcks\u0259lm\u0259si il\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259nib.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu d\u0259f\u0259 d\u0259 eyni ssenari t\u0259krarlan\u0131rm\u0131?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00fcharib\u0259 nec\u0259 ba\u015flad\u0131?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\u0130srail v\u0259 \u0130ran aras\u0131ndak\u0131 qar\u015f\u0131durma yeni deyil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1979-cu il \u0130ran inqilab\u0131ndan sonra Tehran \u0130sraili regionda \u0259sas r\u0259qibl\u0259rind\u0259n biri kimi g\u00f6rm\u0259y\u0259 ba\u015flad\u0131. Sonrak\u0131 onillikl\u0259rd\u0259 bu qar\u015f\u0131durma \u0259sas\u0259n dolay\u0131 yollarla \u2014 proksi q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259r, k\u0259\u015ffiyyat \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar\u0131 v\u0259 kiberh\u00fccumlar \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259n apar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ran\u0131n d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259diyi H\u018fMAS v\u0259 Hizbullah kimi silahl\u0131 qruplar \u0130srail \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259sas t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259 m\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259n biri say\u0131l\u0131r. \u0130srail is\u0259 uzun ill\u0259rdir \u0130ran\u0131n n\u00fcv\u0259 proqram\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6z milli t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliyi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn risk olaraq t\u0259qdim edir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyn\u0259lxalq Atom Enerjisi Agentliyinin son ill\u0259rd\u0259 yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesabatlar g\u00f6st\u0259rirdi ki, \u0130ran uran\u0131n z\u0259nginl\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259si s\u0259viyy\u0259sini art\u0131r\u0131r v\u0259 bu, Q\u0259rb paytaxtlar\u0131nda narahatl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u0259rinl\u0259\u015fdirirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Va\u015finqton v\u0259 T\u0259l-\u018fviv \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn problem t\u0259kc\u0259 \u0130ran\u0131n n\u00fcv\u0259 potensial\u0131 deyil. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 h\u0259m d\u0259 Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259r balans\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130ran \u0130raq, Suriya, Livan v\u0259 Y\u0259m\u0259nd\u0259 t\u0259sir imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fl\u0259ndirdikc\u0259 \u0130srail bunu \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn strateji m\u00fchasir\u0259si kimi g\u00f6r\u00fcrd\u00fc. AB\u015e is\u0259 regionda \u00f6z m\u00fctt\u0259fiql\u0259rinin t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik sistemini qoruma\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rd\u0131. Bu s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n son m\u00fcharib\u0259 yaln\u0131z d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259r aras\u0131nda h\u0259rbi qar\u015f\u0131durma deyil. Bu, h\u0259m d\u0259 enerji yollar\u0131, regional hegemonluq v\u0259 qlobal iqtisadi sabitlik u\u011frunda m\u00fcbariz\u0259dir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00fcnya iqtisadiyyat\u0131 m\u00fcharib\u0259y\u0259 nec\u0259 reaksiya verdi?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 h\u0259rbi qar\u015f\u0131durma ilk n\u00f6vb\u0259d\u0259 enerji bazarlar\u0131nda hiss olunur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u0259b\u0259b sad\u0259dir: \u0130ran d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck neft v\u0259 qaz istehsal\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131ndan biridir, amma daha vacibi onun co\u011frafi m\u00f6vqeyidir. H\u00f6rm\u00fcz bo\u011faz\u0131 d\u00fcnya enerji t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliyinin \u0259n h\u0259ssas n\u00f6qt\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259n biridir. Buradan h\u0259r g\u00fcn t\u0259xmin\u0259n 20 milyon barel\u0259 yax\u0131n neft v\u0259 neft m\u0259hsullar\u0131 da\u015f\u0131n\u0131r. Bu, qlobal d\u0259niz neft ticar\u0259tinin t\u0259xmin\u0259n be\u015fd\u0259 birin\u0259 b\u0259rab\u0259rdir.Bu mar\u015frutda risk artd\u0131qca bazar bunu d\u0259rhal qiym\u0259t\u0259 \u00e7evirir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu d\u0259f\u0259 d\u0259 bel\u0259 oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130srailin \u0130ran \u0259razisind\u0259 h\u0259rbi h\u0259d\u0259fl\u0259ri vurmas\u0131 v\u0259 Tehran\u0131n cavab ehtimal\u0131 neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rini d\u0259rhal bahala\u015fd\u0131rd\u0131. Neftin qiym\u0259ti bir ne\u00e7\u0259 g\u00fcn i\u00e7ind\u0259 s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259ldi. T\u0259kc\u0259 fiziki t\u0259chizat yox, logistika x\u0259rcl\u0259ri d\u0259 artma\u011fa ba\u015flad\u0131. Enerji qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri qalxd\u0131qca da\u015f\u0131nma, istehsal v\u0259 istehlak x\u0259rcl\u0259ri d\u0259 art\u0131r. Bu is\u0259 d\u00fcnya \u00fczr\u0259 inflyasiya t\u0259zyiqini g\u00fccl\u0259ndirir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ba\u015fqa s\u00f6zl\u0259, Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 m\u00fcharib\u0259 t\u0259kc\u0259 h\u0259rbi b\u00f6hran deyil, qlobal iqtisadi hadis\u0259dir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bel\u0259 b\u00f6hranlar\u0131n \u0259n birba\u015fa benefisiarlar\u0131 is\u0259 ad\u0259t\u0259n enerji ixracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 olur. Az\u0259rbaycan da onlar\u0131n aras\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n \u0259sas qazanc\u0131: bahala\u015fan neft<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131, REAL Partiyas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0259dri Natiq C\u0259f\u0259rli Meydan TV-y\u0259 deyir ki, Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 geosiyasi g\u0259rginlik enerji bazar\u0131na birba\u015fa t\u0259sir edir v\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan kimi ixracat\u00e7\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259lav\u0259 g\u0259lir yarad\u0131r:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131
\u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131 Natiq C\u0259f\u0259rli. Foto: Meydan TV<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\u201cK\u00f6rf\u0259z \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri \u0259traf\u0131nda v\u0259 H\u00f6rm\u00fcz bo\u011faz\u0131nda ba\u015f ver\u0259n hadis\u0259l\u0259r geosiyasi g\u0259rginlik n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 neft v\u0259 qaz\u0131n fiziki olaraq bazara \u00e7\u0131xar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0259tinl\u0259\u015fdirir. X\u00fcsusil\u0259 H\u00f6rm\u00fcz bo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131n ba\u011flanmas\u0131 ehtimal\u0131 v\u0259 enerji infrastrukturuna z\u0259rb\u0259l\u0259r ilkin m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259d\u0259 bazara \u00e7\u0131xar\u0131lan neft h\u0259cmini \u0259n az\u0131 14\u201315 milyon barel azald\u0131b. Alternativ mar\u015frutlarla bunun bir hiss\u0259sini geri qaytarmaq m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olsa da, geosiyasi g\u0259rginlik neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rini ciddi \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259ldib\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n 2026-c\u0131 il d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259si neftin bir bareli \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 65 dollar baza qiym\u0259ti il\u0259 haz\u0131rlan\u0131b. Bu o dem\u0259kdir ki, bazarda qiym\u0259t bunun \u00fcz\u0259rin\u0259 \u00e7\u0131xd\u0131qca h\u00f6kum\u0259tin \u0259lav\u0259 g\u0259lir imkanlar\u0131 yaran\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00fcnya bazar\u0131nda Brent markal\u0131 neftin qiym\u0259ti 110 dollar civar\u0131nda formala\u015f\u0131b. Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n ixrac etdiyi \u0259sas neft markas\u0131 olan Azeri Light beyn\u0259lxalq bazarda Brent markas\u0131na yax\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259 sat\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu, b\u00fcdc\u0259d\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulmu\u015f qiym\u0259td\u0259n t\u0259xmin\u0259n 45 dollar y\u00fcks\u0259kdir. Az\u0259rbaycan g\u00fcnd\u0259lik orta hesabla t\u0259xmin\u0259n 450 min barel xam neft ixrac edir. Sad\u0259 hesabla, h\u0259r bareld\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 45 dollar f\u0259rq yaranarsa, bu, 450 min bareld\u0259 20,25 milyon dollar edir. Bu is\u0259 g\u00fcnd\u0259lik \u0259lav\u0259 g\u0259lir dem\u0259kdir. Bir ayl\u0131q perspektivd\u0259 is\u0259 bu r\u0259q\u0259m 600 milyon dollardan \u00e7ox edir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u018flb\u0259tt\u0259, bu hesablamaya logistika, m\u00fcqavil\u0259 f\u0259rql\u0259ri v\u0259 bazar d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyi daxil deyil. Amma \u00fcmumi tendensiyan\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r ayd\u0131nd\u0131r: m\u00fcharib\u0259 fonunda bahala\u015fan neft Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259lav\u0259 fiskal rahatl\u0131q yarad\u0131r. Bu g\u0259lirin \u0259sas hiss\u0259si birba\u015fa v\u0259 dolay\u0131 yolla d\u00f6vl\u0259t maliyy\u0259sin\u0259 gedir. Natiq C\u0259f\u0259rli hesab edir ki, qiym\u0259t art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n fiskal effekti birba\u015fa D\u00f6vl\u0259t Neft Fondunda hiss olunacaq:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAz\u0259rbaycan\u0131n g\u00fcnd\u0259lik neft hasilat\u0131 v\u0259 ixrac potensial\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alsaq, n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulandan \u0259lav\u0259 bu il \u0259rzind\u0259 D\u00f6vl\u0259t Neft Fonduna t\u0259xmin\u0259n 1,5\u20132 milyard dollar art\u0131q v\u0259sait daxil ola bil\u0259r. \u00c7\u00fcnki valyuta \u0259vv\u0259lc\u0259 Neft Fonduna daxil olur, daha sonra b\u00fcdc\u0259y\u0259 transfert edilir\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ekspertin d\u0259 dediyi kimi D\u00f6vl\u0259t Neft Fondu vasit\u0259sil\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259y\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 transfert imkanlar\u0131 yaran\u0131r, valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131r, fiskal dayan\u0131ql\u0131q g\u00fccl\u0259nir. Bu, x\u00fcsusil\u0259 neft g\u0259lirl\u0259rind\u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131q \u015f\u0259raitind\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259t \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ciddi \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fckd\u00fcr. Ancaq Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n qazanc\u0131 t\u0259kc\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259ti il\u0259 m\u0259hdudla\u015fm\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00f6rm\u00fcz ba\u011fland\u0131qda, Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n tranzit \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259ti nec\u0259 arta bil\u0259r?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 enerji mar\u015frutlar\u0131n\u0131n risk alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u0259c\u0259yi t\u0259qdird\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n yerl\u0259\u015fdiyi co\u011frafiya daha qiym\u0259tli olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u018fg\u0259r neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri birinci iqtisadi dividendirs\u0259, tranzit mar\u015frutlar\u0131 ikinci qazancd\u0131r.

Natiq C\u0259f\u0259rli d\u0259 deyir ki, b\u00f6hran t\u0259kc\u0259 enerji bazar\u0131n\u0131 yox, logistika x\u0259rit\u0259sini d\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fir:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cD\u0259niz logistikas\u0131n\u0131n problem\u0259 \u00e7evrilm\u0259si Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n logistika m\u0259rk\u0259zi kimi \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tini art\u0131r\u0131r. Orta D\u0259hlizin \u0259sas h\u0259lq\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259n biri kimi Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259n ke\u00e7\u0259n y\u00fckl\u0259rin h\u0259cmi art\u0131r. Bu da \u00f6lk\u0259y\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 tranzit g\u0259lirl\u0259ri g\u0259tirir v\u0259 geosiyasi \u00f6n\u0259mini art\u0131r\u0131r\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ran t\u0259kc\u0259 enerji istehsal\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 deyil, h\u0259m d\u0259 Asiya il\u0259 Avropa aras\u0131nda m\u00fch\u00fcm logistika ke\u00e7ididir. H\u00f6rm\u00fcz bo\u011faz\u0131nda t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik riskinin artmas\u0131 v\u0259 \u0130ran mar\u015frutlar\u0131n\u0131n qeyri-sabitl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si alternativ yollar\u0131n \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tini art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu n\u00f6qt\u0259d\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n m\u00f6vqeyi diqq\u0259t\u0259 g\u0259lir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bak\u0131-Tbilisi-Ceyhan boru k\u0259m\u0259ri X\u0259z\u0259r neftini Aral\u0131q d\u0259nizin\u0259 \u00e7\u0131xaran \u0259sas alternativ mar\u015frutlardan biridir. Bu x\u0259ttin strateji \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fcy\u00fc ondad\u0131r ki, Fars k\u00f6rf\u0259zi riskl\u0259rind\u0259n k\u0259nardad\u0131r. Eyni v\u0259ziyy\u0259t Orta D\u0259hliz \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn d\u0259 ke\u00e7\u0259rlidir. \u00c7ind\u0259n ba\u015flay\u0131b Qazax\u0131stan, X\u0259z\u0259r d\u0259nizi, Az\u0259rbaycan, G\u00fcrc\u00fcstan v\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259n Avropaya uzanan bu mar\u015frut son ill\u0259rd\u0259 Rusiyadan yan ke\u00e7\u0259n \u0259sas alternativ\u0259 \u00e7evrilib.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Avropa Yenid\u0259nqurma v\u0259 \u0130nki\u015faf Bank\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259sin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, Orta D\u0259hlizd\u0259 y\u00fck h\u0259cml\u0259ri s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 art\u0131r v\u0259 bu mar\u015frut Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yeni iqtisadi imkanlar yarad\u0131r. T\u0259kc\u0259 2024-c\u00fc ild\u0259 da\u015f\u0131malar 62 faiz artaraq 4,5 milyon tona \u00e7at\u0131b. 2025-ci ild\u0259 is\u0259 bu r\u0259q\u0259min 5,2 milyon tona y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yi proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259r g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, geosiyasi riskl\u0259r artd\u0131qca alternativ tranzit x\u0259tl\u0259ri daha qiym\u0259tli olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u018fg\u0259r Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 h\u0259rbi risk d\u0259rinl\u0259\u015f\u0259rs\u0259, M\u0259rk\u0259zi Asiya \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin v\u0259 Avropan\u0131n Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259n ke\u00e7\u0259n mar\u015frutlara mara\u011f\u0131 daha da arta bil\u0259r. Bu is\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n rolunu enerji ixracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha geni\u015f \u2014 regional logistika m\u0259rk\u0259zin\u0259 \u00e7evirir.

Ancaq Natiq C\u0259f\u0259rli eyni zamanda bildirir ki, enerji g\u0259lirl\u0259rind\u0259 art\u0131m avtomatik olaraq \u0259halinin rifah\u0131n\u0131n yax\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 dem\u0259k deyil. Onun s\u00f6zl\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n idxaldan y\u00fcks\u0259k as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu tip geosiyasi b\u00f6hranlar\u0131n m\u0259nfi t\u0259sirl\u0259rini d\u0259 qa\u00e7\u0131lmaz edir:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAz\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131 struktur bax\u0131m\u0131ndan kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r primitivdir v\u0259 idxaldan y\u00fcks\u0259k d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 as\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6lk\u0259d\u0259 \u0259rzaq m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259xmin\u0259n 73\u201374 faizi xaricd\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. D\u0259rman preparatlar\u0131nda bu g\u00f6st\u0259rici 94 faizdir, elektrotexnika v\u0259 m\u0259i\u015f\u0259t avadanl\u0131qlar\u0131nda, avtomobil v\u0259 ehtiyat hiss\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 is\u0259 dem\u0259k olar 100 faiz\u0259 yax\u0131nd\u0131r. Bu q\u0259d\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259k xarici as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131q fonunda logistik probleml\u0259rin yaranmas\u0131 v\u0259 enerji da\u015f\u0131y\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259tinin artmas\u0131 xaricd\u0259 inflyasiyan\u0131 y\u00fcks\u0259ldir v\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycana idxal olunan m\u0259hsullar\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri d\u0259 art\u0131r. Bu is\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanda yeni inflyasiya dal\u011fas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olur. D\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sin\u0259 v\u0259 Neft Fonduna \u0259lav\u0259 g\u0259lirl\u0259r daxil olsa da, bunun \u0259halinin rifah\u0131na m\u00fcsb\u0259t t\u0259siri olmur. \u018fksin\u0259, qiym\u0259tl\u0259r art\u0131r, real g\u0259lirl\u0259r azal\u0131r\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u0259f\u0259rli \u0259lav\u0259 edir ki, iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r d\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259tin g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fcy\u00fc q\u0259d\u0259r sabit olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAz\u0259rbaycanda \u00fcmumdaxili m\u0259hsul ilk r\u00fcbd\u0259 0,3 faiz azal\u0131b. Bu is\u0259 iqtisadi art\u0131m\u0131n dem\u0259k olar ki, dayanma h\u0259ddin\u0259 yax\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Az qala resessiya astanas\u0131nday\u0131q\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ancaq tarix g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, xarici b\u00f6hranlardan g\u0259l\u0259n iqtisadi g\u0259lirl\u0259r Az\u0259rbaycanda t\u0259kc\u0259 iqtisadi n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259r do\u011furmur. Onlar\u0131n siyasi n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri d\u0259 olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tarixi paralel: neft bahala\u015fanda Az\u0259rbaycanda n\u0259 ba\u015f verir?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Son 15 ild\u0259 regional b\u00f6hranlar\u0131n yaratd\u0131\u011f\u0131 neft bahala\u015fmas\u0131 Bak\u0131ya bir ne\u00e7\u0259 d\u0259f\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 g\u0259lir g\u0259tirib.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130lk b\u00f6y\u00fck n\u00fcmun\u0259 2011-ci il idi. \u018fr\u0259b bahar\u0131 Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 siyasi sistemi silk\u0259l\u0259y\u0259rk\u0259n neft bazarlar\u0131 da sars\u0131ld\u0131. Liviyada istehsal dayand\u0131, region \u00fczr\u0259 qeyri-m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nlik artd\u0131 v\u0259 Brent neftinin qiym\u0259ti 120 dollara yax\u0131nla\u015fd\u0131. Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bu, rekord g\u0259lirl\u0259r d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u00fcn davam\u0131 idi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u018fr\u0259b d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda avtoritar sisteml\u0259r k\u00fc\u00e7\u0259 etirazlar\u0131 il\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015firdi, Az\u0259rbaycanda is\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k enerji g\u0259lirl\u0259ri siyasi sistemin maliyy\u0259 dayan\u0131ql\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fccl\u0259ndirirdi. Bu prosesin \u0259n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u0259n siyasi n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri 2013\u20132014-c\u00fc ill\u0259rd\u0259 ortaya \u00e7\u0131xd\u0131. 2013-c\u00fc il prezident se\u00e7kisind\u0259n sonra Az\u0259rbaycanda v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015f c\u0259miyy\u0259ti v\u0259 m\u00fcst\u0259qil media \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 t\u0259zyiql\u0259r k\u0259skin artd\u0131. H\u00fcquq\u00a0 m\u00fcdafi\u0259\u00e7il\u0259ri Anar M\u0259mm\u0259dli, Leyla Yunus v\u0259 Arif Yunus, \u0130ntiqam \u018fliyev, R\u0259sul C\u0259f\u0259rov, B\u0259\u015fir S\u00fcleymanl\u0131, ara\u015fd\u0131rma\u00e7\u0131 jurnalist X\u0259dic\u0259 \u0130smay\u0131lova, siyas\u0259t\u00e7il\u0259r \u0130lqar M\u0259mm\u0259dov, Tofiq Yaqublu, Yadigar Sad\u0131ql\u0131 v\u0259 v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015f c\u0259miyy\u0259tinin xeyli \u00fczd\u0259 olan \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259ri h\u0259bs edildi. Beyn\u0259lxalq insan haqlar\u0131 t\u0259\u015fkilatlar\u0131 h\u0259min d\u00f6vr\u00fc Az\u0259rbaycanda v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015f c\u0259miyy\u0259tin\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 sistemli repressiya m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259si kimi qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirmi\u015fdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Y\u00fcks\u0259k neft g\u0259lirl\u0259ri hakimiyy\u0259t\u0259 daha geni\u015f fiskal imkan verirdi. Sosial x\u0259rcl\u0259r art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r, valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131 qorunur, eyni zamanda siyasi t\u0259zyiql\u0259rin iqtisadi y\u00fck\u00fc daha rahat da\u015f\u0131n\u0131rd\u0131. B\u0259nz\u0259r dinamika 2022-ci ild\u0259 d\u0259 m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olundu. Rusiyan\u0131n Ukraynaya h\u00fccumundan sonra enerji qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri yenid\u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259ldi, Avropa alternativ qaz axtar\u0131\u015f\u0131nda Az\u0259rbaycana \u00fcz tutdu. Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n geosiyasi \u00e7\u0259kisi artd\u0131 v\u0259 siyasi h\u0259bsl\u0259r artma\u011fa ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu g\u00fcn \u0130srail-\u0130ran m\u00fcharib\u0259si fonunda yaranan yeni enerji \u015foku da ox\u015far model yarada bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tarix g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, regiondak\u0131 b\u00f6hranlar Az\u0259rbaycana \u0259lav\u0259 g\u0259lir g\u0259tir\u0259nd\u0259 bu g\u0259lirl\u0259r t\u0259kc\u0259 iqtisadiyyata yox, siyasi sistemin dayan\u0131ql\u0131\u011f\u0131na da i\u015fl\u0259yir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meydan TV-y\u0259 dan\u0131\u015fan siyasi \u015f\u0259rh\u00e7i Nahid C\u0259f\u0259rov hesab edir ki, bu g\u00fcn yaranan geosiyasi v\u0259ziyy\u0259t avtoritar sisteml\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn q\u0131sam\u00fcdd\u0259tli rahatl\u0131q yarad\u0131r:<\/p>\n\n\n

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Foto: Nahid C\u0259f\u0259rovun \u015f\u0259xsi “Facebook” s\u0259hif\u0259si<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

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\u201cBu g\u00fcn neftin bahala\u015fmas\u0131, Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n enerji t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliyind\u0259 \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tinin artmas\u0131 real v\u0259 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u0259n faktorlard\u0131r. Amma d\u00fcnya siyas\u0259tind\u0259 insan h\u00fcquqlar\u0131 v\u0259 demokratiya kimi prinsipl\u0259r arxa plana ke\u00e7ir, real siyas\u0259t \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131x\u0131r. \u0130lham \u018fliyev d\u0259 bundan maksimum istifad\u0259 etm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusiyan\u0131n bu m\u00fcharib\u0259d\u0259n qazanc\u0131 n\u0259dir?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\u0130srail-\u0130ran m\u00fcharib\u0259sinin iqtisadi n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri yaln\u0131z Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn deyil, Rusiya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn d\u0259 \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tlidir. Moskva \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn d\u0259 \u0259sas qazanc yen\u0259 enerjid\u0259n g\u0259lir. Rusiya iqtisadiyyat\u0131 sanksiyalar alt\u0131nda i\u015fl\u0259s\u0259 d\u0259, enerji ixrac\u0131 h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259nin \u0259sas dayaqlar\u0131ndan biridir. Neftin d\u00fcnya bazar\u0131nda bahala\u015fmas\u0131 Kremlin g\u0259lirl\u0259rini art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu, x\u00fcsusil\u0259 Ukrayna m\u00fcharib\u0259sinin x\u0259rc y\u00fck\u00fc fonunda vacibdir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusiya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ikinci siyasi dividend diqq\u0259tin yay\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r. 2022-ci ild\u0259n b\u0259ri Q\u0259rbin \u0259sas siyasi v\u0259 h\u0259rbi diqq\u0259ti Ukraynaya y\u00f6n\u0259lmi\u015fdi. Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 yeni b\u00f6y\u00fck m\u00fcharib\u0259 bu diqq\u0259ti b\u00f6l\u00fcr. Bu is\u0259 Moskva \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn strateji rahatl\u0131q yarad\u0131r. Va\u015finqtonun h\u0259rbi v\u0259 diplomatik resurslar\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcr, Q\u0259rb g\u00fcnd\u0259liyi par\u00e7alan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ancaq Moskva \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn riskl\u0259r d\u0259 var. \u0130ran Rusiyan\u0131n regiondak\u0131 \u0259sas t\u0259r\u0259fda\u015flar\u0131ndan biridir. Tehran z\u0259ifl\u0259y\u0259rs\u0259, Kremlin Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 t\u0259sir imkanlar\u0131 da azala bil\u0259r. Y\u0259ni Rusiya bu m\u00fcharib\u0259d\u0259n q\u0131sam\u00fcdd\u0259tli iqtisadi fayda \u0259ld\u0259 ets\u0259 d\u0259, uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli geosiyasi riskl\u0259rl\u0259 \u00fcz-\u00fcz\u0259 qala bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00fcharib\u0259 v\u0259 avtoritar liderl\u0259rin qazanc\u0131<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

M\u00fcharib\u0259l\u0259r avtoritar liderl\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00e7ox vaxt yaln\u0131z t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259 deyil, h\u0259m d\u0259 f\u00fcrs\u0259tdir. Tarix g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, xarici t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259 narrativi daxild\u0259 siyasi n\u0259zar\u0259ti g\u00fccl\u0259ndirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259n t\u0259sirli vasit\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n biridir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu mexanizm f\u0259rqli \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 ox\u015far i\u015fl\u0259yir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusiyada Vladimir Putinin hakimiyy\u0259ti Ukrayna m\u00fcharib\u0259si fonunda t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik diskursu \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 daha da s\u0259rtl\u0259\u015fdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130sraild\u0259 Benyamin Netanyahu m\u00fcharib\u0259 \u015f\u0259raitind\u0259 siyasi t\u0259zyiql\u0259ri arxa plana ke\u00e7irm\u0259yi bacard\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AB\u015e-d\u0259 Donald Tramp\u0131n xarici siyas\u0259t ritorikas\u0131 da g\u00fcc n\u00fcmayi\u015fi v\u0259 s\u0259rt t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik x\u0259tti \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 qurulub.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Az\u0259rbaycanda is\u0259 dediyimiz kimi xarici m\u00fcharib\u0259 birba\u015fa i\u015ftirakdan \u00e7ox dolay\u0131 iqtisadi dividend yarad\u0131r. Tarixi t\u0259cr\u00fcb\u0259 g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, regional b\u00f6hranlardan g\u0259l\u0259n enerji g\u0259lirl\u0259ri siyasi sistemin dayan\u0131ql\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r. 2011-ci ild\u0259 \u018fr\u0259b bahar\u0131 zaman\u0131 ba\u015flayan qiym\u0259t art\u0131m\u0131 2011\u20132014-c\u00fc ill\u0259rd\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k enerji g\u0259lirl\u0259ri d\u00f6vl\u0259tin fiskal imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fl\u0259ndirdi. 2014-c\u00fc ild\u0259 D\u00f6vl\u0259t Neft Fondundan d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sin\u0259 9,3 milyard manat transfert edildi. Bu, d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sinin \u0259sas dayaqlar\u0131ndan biri idi. El\u0259 h\u0259min d\u00f6vrd\u0259 v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015f c\u0259miyy\u0259tin\u0259 v\u0259 m\u00fcst\u0259qil mediaya qar\u015f\u0131 basq\u0131lar sistemli xarakter ald\u0131. Ancaq siyasi iqtisadiyyat bax\u0131m\u0131ndan m\u0259ntiq ayd\u0131nd\u0131r: y\u00fcks\u0259k enerji g\u0259lirl\u0259ri hakimiyy\u0259tin iqtisadi elastikliyini art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu elastiklik is\u0259 siyasi riskl\u0259rin idar\u0259 olunmas\u0131n\u0131 asanla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r. Bu g\u00fcn \u0130srail\u2013\u0130ran m\u00fcharib\u0259sinin yaratd\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni enerji \u015foku Az\u0259rbaycana yenid\u0259n \u0259lav\u0259 g\u0259lir g\u0259tir\u0259 bil\u0259r.

Nahid C\u0259f\u0259rovun fikrinc\u0259 is\u0259 indiki real politik m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259 ke\u00e7icidir v\u0259 g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259kd\u0259 demokratik d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259r yenid\u0259n beyn\u0259lxalq siyas\u0259td\u0259 \u00f6n plana qay\u0131da bil\u0259r:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cUkrayna\u2013Rusiya m\u00fcharib\u0259sind\u0259n sonra Avropa yenid\u0259n insan h\u00fcquqlar\u0131, demokratiya v\u0259 h\u00fcququn aliliyi kimi d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259r\u0259 daha s\u0131x ba\u011flanacaq. Beyn\u0259lxalq institutlar yenid\u0259n \u00f6z t\u0259sir r\u0131\u00e7aqlar\u0131n\u0131 i\u015f\u0259 salacaq. Bu, Az\u0259rbaycan kimi avtoritar idar\u0259etm\u0259 modelin\u0259 malik \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259td\u0259 d\u0259 \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259c\u0259k\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u018fsas sual is\u0259 budur: bu g\u0259lirl\u0259r iqtisadi islahatlara y\u00f6n\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k, yoxsa m\u00f6vcud siyasi status-kvonu daha da m\u00f6hk\u0259ml\u0259ndir\u0259c\u0259k?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130srail\u2013\u0130ran m\u00fcharib\u0259si Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn birba\u015fa h\u0259rbi t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259 yaratmasa da, onun iqtisadi v\u0259 geosiyasi t\u0259sirl\u0259ri art\u0131q hiss olunur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bahala\u015fan neft Bak\u0131ya \u0259lav\u0259 g\u0259lir v\u0259d edir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rusiya kimi Az\u0259rbaycan da bu b\u00f6hrandan enerji dividendi \u0259ld\u0259 ed\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bundan ba\u015fqa Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n son onillik t\u0259cr\u00fcb\u0259si g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, enerji g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin artmas\u0131 t\u0259kc\u0259 iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259ri d\u0259yi\u015fmir. Bu, siyasi sistemi d\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fdirir. Daha d\u0259qiq des\u0259k, onu daha dayan\u0131ql\u0131 edir. Regionda raketl\u0259r v\u0259 raketd\u0259n m\u00fcdafi\u0259 sisteml\u0259ri i\u015fl\u0259diyi vaxt, Bak\u0131da ba\u015fqa bir proses ba\u015flay\u0131r:

Neft dollarlar\u0131n\u0131n siyasi t\u0259sir\u0259 \u00e7evrilm\u0259si.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 son ba\u015f ver\u0259nl\u0259r t\u0259kc\u0259 regionun t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259sini deyil, … <\/p>\n

Davam\u0131<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":344758,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_sitemap_exclude":false,"_sitemap_priority":"","_sitemap_frequency":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[51,88,79,56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-344730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analitika","category-redaktor-secimi","category-featured","category-xeberler","infinite-scroll-item","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131: Az\u0259rbaycan bu m\u00fcharib\u0259d\u0259n nec\u0259 iqtisadi v\u0259 siyasi qazanc \u0259ld\u0259 etd\u0131? - MEYDAN.TV<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/iran-savasi-az%c9%99rbaycan-bu-muharib%c9%99d%c9%99n-nec%c9%99-iqtisadi-v%c9%99-siyasi-qazanc-%c9%99ld%c9%99-etdi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"az_AZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131: Az\u0259rbaycan bu m\u00fcharib\u0259d\u0259n nec\u0259 iqtisadi v\u0259 siyasi qazanc \u0259ld\u0259 etd\u0131? - MEYDAN.TV\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 son ba\u015f ver\u0259nl\u0259r t\u0259kc\u0259 regionun t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259sini deyil, ... 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