Yanvar\u0131n 26-na q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n bir unsiyas\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259ti tarixd\u0259 ilk d\u0259f\u0259 5100 dollar h\u0259ddin\u0259 \u00e7at\u0131b. Xarici media bu fakt\u0131 \u201cmisilsiz bir ralli\u201d kimi qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirir. \u201cReuters\u201d yaz\u0131r ki, q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259ti b\u00fct\u00fcn zamanlar\u0131n \u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 \u00e7at\u0131b v\u0259 geosiyasi g\u0259rginliyin artmas\u0131 fonunda \u201ct\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259siz liman\u0131\u201dna olan t\u0259l\u0259bin y\u00fcks\u0259ldiyi bir vaxtda tarixi art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 qoruyub saxlay\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Xarici ekspertl\u0259rin fikrinc\u0259, bu y\u00fcks\u0259li\u015f t\u0259kc\u0259 t\u0259klif v\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259b amill\u0259ri il\u0259 deyil, eyni zamanda qlobal b\u00f6hranlar, m\u0259rk\u0259zi banklar\u0131n siyas\u0259ti, artan geosiyasi riskl\u0259r v\u0259 bazar psixologiyas\u0131 il\u0259 birba\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Pul k\u00fctl\u0259sinin artd\u0131\u011f\u0131, y\u00fcks\u0259k inflyasiyan\u0131n h\u00f6km s\u00fcrd\u00fcy\u00fc, m\u00fcharib\u0259 v\u0259 maliyy\u0259 b\u00f6hranlar\u0131 il\u0259 m\u00fc\u015fayi\u0259t olunan d\u00f6vrl\u0259rd\u0259 q\u0131z\u0131l m\u0259rk\u0259zi banklar v\u0259 investorlar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259sas t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259siz yata\u011f\u0131 olub. Bu bax\u0131mdan yax\u0131n tarixd\u0259 q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n haz\u0131rk\u0131 s\u00fcr\u0259tli bahala\u015fmas\u0131na b\u0259nz\u0259r bir ne\u00e7\u0259 kritik m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259 m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 edilib.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1971-ci il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r AB\u015e dollar\u0131n\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n unsiyas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 idi (Bretton-Vuds sistemi). H\u0259min il AB\u015e Prezidenti Ri\u00e7ard Nikson dollar\u0131n q\u0131z\u0131la ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 l\u0259\u011fv ed\u0259n q\u0259rar verdi ki, bu da bazarlarda ciddi \u015fok effekti yaratd\u0131 v\u0259 q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n s\u0259rb\u0259st bazarda formala\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yolunu a\u00e7d\u0131. Eyni d\u00f6vrd\u0259 Vyetnam m\u00fcharib\u0259sinin maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259si v\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259t x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin artmas\u0131 s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n AB\u015e-da pul k\u00fctl\u0259si k\u0259skin \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 geni\u015fl\u0259ndi, inflyasiya is\u0259 13 faiz\u0259 \u00e7atd\u0131. Dollar\u0131n ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 fonunda q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259ti 23 d\u0259f\u0259 bahala\u015faraq 1971-ci ild\u0259ki 35 dollardan 1980-ci ilin yanvar\u0131nda rekord 850 dollara y\u00fcks\u0259ldi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
N\u00f6vb\u0259ti b\u00f6y\u00fck bahala\u015fma dal\u011fas\u0131 2008-ci il qlobal maliyy\u0259 b\u00f6hran\u0131 zaman\u0131 ba\u015f verdi. AB\u015e-da ipoteka b\u00f6hran\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 m\u0259nzil bazar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6km\u0259si bank sektorunu d\u0259rin b\u00f6hranla \u00fcz-\u00fcz\u0259 qoydu v\u0259 2008-2011-ci ill\u0259r tarix\u0259 qlobal maliyy\u0259 b\u00f6hran\u0131 kimi d\u00fc\u015fd\u00fc. Bank sistemind\u0259 resurs \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0259lav\u0259 pul emissiyas\u0131na t\u0259l\u0259bat yaratd\u0131 v\u0259 bu d\u00f6vrd\u0259 AB\u015e Federal Ehtiyat Sistemi (FED) trilyonlarla dollar d\u0259y\u0259rind\u0259 istiqraz ald\u0131. Neftin v\u0259 dollar\u0131n ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131 yenid\u0259n investorlar\u0131n \u0259sas \u201ct\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259siz liman\u0131\u201dna \u00e7evirdi. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 2007-ci ild\u0259 600-700 dollar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olan q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259ti 2011-ci ilin avqustunda o d\u00f6vr \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn rekord say\u0131lan 1921 dollara \u00e7atd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
N\u00f6vb\u0259ti bahala\u015fma m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259si 2020-ci ild\u0259 COVID-19 pandemiyas\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u015flad\u0131. Pandemiya h\u0259m s\u0259hiyy\u0259, h\u0259m d\u0259 iqtisadi b\u00f6hranlara s\u0259b\u0259b oldu. \u0130qtisadiyyatlar\u0131 d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259m\u0259k m\u0259qs\u0259dil\u0259 m\u0259rk\u0259zi banklar yenid\u0259n pul ekspansiyas\u0131na \u0259l atd\u0131lar. Bu zaman qlobal qeyri-m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nlik v\u0259 iqtisadi f\u0259aliyy\u0259tin dayanmas\u0131 investorlar\u0131 yenid\u0259n q\u0131z\u0131la y\u00f6n\u0259ltdi. Q\u0131z\u0131l 2020-ci ilin avqustunda ilk d\u0259f\u0259 2000 dollar psixoloji h\u0259ddini ke\u00e7\u0259r\u0259k 2075 dollara y\u00fcks\u0259ldi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Post-pandemiya d\u00f6vr\u00fcnd\u0259 Rusiya-Ukrayna m\u00fcharib\u0259si, \u0130ran-\u0130srail g\u0259rginliyi v\u0259 dig\u0259r geosiyasi prosesl\u0259r m\u0259rk\u0259zi banklar\u0131 investisiya siyas\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259 daha ehtiyatl\u0131 davranma\u011fa s\u00f6vq etdi. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 2024-c\u00fc ild\u0259 q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259ti 2300-2700 dollar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fcks\u0259ldi. Bu qiym\u0259tli metal\u0131n d\u0259y\u0259ri 2025-ci il boyunca n\u00f6vb\u0259ti psixoloji h\u0259ddi ke\u00e7\u0259r\u0259k, 2026-c\u0131 ilin yanvar\u0131nda ilk d\u0259f\u0259 5100 dollar h\u0259ddini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analitikl\u0259r bu k\u0259skin s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131\u015f\u0131 AB\u015e Prezidenti Donald Tramp\u0131n ticar\u0259t tarifl\u0259ri v\u0259 xarici siyas\u0259tl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u0259rt b\u0259yanatlar\u0131 fonunda dollara olan etimad\u0131n z\u0259ifl\u0259m\u0259si il\u0259 izah edirl\u0259r. Bu \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259, t\u0259bii olaraq investorlar\u0131n \u201ct\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259siz liman\u201d kimi q\u0131z\u0131la mara\u011f\u0131 \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 art\u0131b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Xarici analitikl\u0259r 2026\u20132027-ci ill\u0259ri \u201cq\u0131z\u0131l d\u00f6vr\u00fc\u201d adland\u0131r\u0131rlar. Art\u0131q bir s\u0131ra beyn\u0259lxalq t\u0259\u015fkilatlar v\u0259 investisiya banklar\u0131 cari v\u0259 n\u00f6vb\u0259ti ill\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn q\u0131z\u0131l qiym\u0259ti il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 proqnozlar\u0131n\u0131 yenil\u0259yibl\u0259r. \u201cGoldman Sachs\u201d 2026-c\u0131 il \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn proqnozunu 4900 dollardan 5400 dollara q\u0259d\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259ldib. Bank bunu \u00f6z\u0259l investorlar\u0131n qlobal siyasi riskl\u0259rd\u0259n s\u0131\u011fortalanmaq m\u0259qs\u0259dil\u0259 q\u0131z\u0131la k\u00fctl\u0259vi ax\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 inki\u015faf etm\u0259kd\u0259 olan \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin m\u0259rk\u0259zi banklar\u0131n\u0131n aktiv diversifikasiyas\u0131 il\u0259 \u0259laq\u0259l\u0259ndirir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cJP Morgan Global Research\u201d qeyd edir ki, 2026-c\u0131 ild\u0259 m\u0259rk\u0259zi banklar\u0131n t\u0259xmin\u0259n 755-800 ton q\u0131z\u0131l alaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir. Bu g\u00f6st\u0259rici son \u00fc\u00e7 ilin 1000 tondan \u00e7ox olan pik s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olsa da, 2022-ci ild\u0259n \u0259vv\u0259lki orta g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rl\u0259 (400-500 ton) m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 xeyli y\u00fcks\u0259kdir. Bank\u0131n analitikl\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli perspektivd\u0259 q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259ti unsiya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 6000 dollara q\u0259d\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259 bil\u0259r. Onlar\u0131n fikrinc\u0259, bu s\u0259viyy\u0259 m\u00f6vcud maliyy\u0259 sistemin\u0259 olan etimad\u0131n z\u0259ifl\u0259m\u0259sinin simvolu olacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Haz\u0131rda d\u00fcnyada m\u0259rk\u0259zi banklar\u0131n q\u0131z\u0131l ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259cmin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 AB\u015e 8,2 min tonla birinci, Almaniya 3,4 min tonla ikinci yerd\u0259dir. Az\u0259rbaycanda is\u0259 q\u0131z\u0131l al\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u0259sas\u0259n Az\u0259rbaycan D\u00f6vl\u0259t Neft Fondu (ARDNF) vasit\u0259sil\u0259 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irilir. \u00c7\u00fcnki \u00f6lk\u0259nin \u0259sas valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131 bu fond t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n idar\u0259 olunur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u018fvv\u0259lki maliyy\u0259 b\u00f6hranlar\u0131nda xarici aktivl\u0259rin idar\u0259 edilm\u0259sind\u0259 ciddi itkil\u0259rl\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015f\u0259n Fond 2024-c\u00fc ild\u0259n etibar\u0259n q\u0131z\u0131l al\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 aktivl\u0259\u015fdirib. Bu add\u0131m valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n diversifikasiyas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaqla yana\u015f\u0131, uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli qoruma strategiyas\u0131ndan q\u0131sam\u00fcdd\u0259tli v\u0259 orta m\u00fcdd\u0259tli y\u00fcks\u0259k g\u0259lir strategiyas\u0131na ke\u00e7idi d\u0259 \u0259ks etdirir. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 2024-c\u00fc ild\u0259 q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n \u00fcmumi ehtiyatlardak\u0131 pay\u0131 20 faiz\u0259, 2025-ci ilin ilk 9 ay\u0131n\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 is\u0259 32,8 faiz\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259lib. 2024-c\u00fc ild\u0259 ARDNF 146,6 ton q\u0131z\u0131l alaraq aktivl\u0259rin\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 edib. 2025-ci il sentyabr\u0131n 30-na Fondun q\u0131z\u0131l portfeli 184,8 ton t\u0259\u015fkil edib.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
D\u00f6vl\u0259t G\u00f6mr\u00fck Komit\u0259sinin m\u0259lumat\u0131na \u0259sas\u0259n, Fondun q\u0131z\u0131l al\u0131\u015flar\u0131 2025-ci ilin sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru daha da s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259nib. Bel\u0259 ki, h\u0259min il 6,3 milyard dollar d\u0259y\u0259rind\u0259 qiym\u0259tli metal v\u0259 da\u015f idxal\u0131 qeyd\u0259 al\u0131n\u0131b ki, bu da 2024-c\u00fc ill\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 d\u0259y\u0259r ifad\u0259sind\u0259 46,7 faiz art\u0131m dem\u0259kdir. M\u00fcqayis\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, 2023-c\u00fc ild\u0259 bu kateqoriya \u00fczr\u0259 idxal c\u0259mi 56 milyon dollar olub.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ARDNF-nin q\u0131z\u0131l al\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131 t\u0259diy\u0259 balans\u0131na ciddi t\u0259zyiq g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259r\u0259k t\u0259xmin\u0259n 3 milyard dollarl\u0131q k\u0259sir yarad\u0131b v\u0259 ticar\u0259t balans\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcsb\u0259t saldosunun \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 azalmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olub. Bununla bel\u0259, ekspertl\u0259r hesab edirl\u0259r ki, q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n bahala\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259nin \u00fcmumi valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0259y\u0259r bax\u0131m\u0131ndan artmas\u0131na m\u00fcsb\u0259t t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, D\u00f6vl\u0259t Neft Fondunun aktivl\u0259ri 2025-ci il 9 ay\u0131nda 70 milyard 161,7 milyon dollara \u00e7at\u0131b. Bu art\u0131mda q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n pay\u0131 x\u00fcsusil\u0259 b\u00f6y\u00fck olub. Bel\u0259 ki, q\u0131z\u0131l aktivl\u0259rinin d\u0259y\u0259r art\u0131m\u0131 ARDNF-nin b\u00fcdc\u0259d\u0259nk\u0259nar g\u0259lirl\u0259rini 15 milyard dollardan \u00e7ox y\u00fcks\u0259ldib.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yanvar\u0131n 26-na q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n bir unsiyas\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259ti tarixd\u0259 ilk d\u0259f\u0259 5100 … <\/p>\n