{"id":339267,"date":"2025-12-18T15:57:22","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T11:57:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/?p=339267"},"modified":"2025-12-18T15:57:24","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T11:57:24","slug":"asagi-neft-qiym%c9%99tl%c9%99ri-devalvasiya-t%c9%99hluk%c9%99si-v%c9%99-gozl%c9%99nil%c9%99n-riskl%c9%99r","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/asagi-neft-qiym%c9%99tl%c9%99ri-devalvasiya-t%c9%99hluk%c9%99si-v%c9%99-gozl%c9%99nil%c9%99n-riskl%c9%99r\/","title":{"rendered":"A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri: devalvasiya t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259si v\u0259 g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n riskl\u0259r"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

D\u00fcnya bazarlar\u0131nda neftin qiym\u0259ti ucuzla\u015fmaqda davam edir. Cari ilin yanvar ay\u0131nda 77-82 dollar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sat\u0131lan \u201cBrent\u201d markal\u0131 neftin qiym\u0259ti ilin sonuna do\u011fru 60 dollardan da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAzeri Light\u201d markal\u0131 Az\u0259rbaycan neftinin 1 bareli haz\u0131rda 1,28 AB\u015e dollar\u0131 v\u0259 ya 2 faiz ucuzla\u015faraq 62,45 AB\u015e dollar\u0131na b\u0259rab\u0259r olub.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00dcmumiyy\u0259tl\u0259, h\u0259l\u0259 ilin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan etibar\u0259n beyn\u0259lxalq analitik m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n \u201cqara q\u0131z\u0131l\u201d\u0131n qiym\u0259tinin ucuzla\u015faca\u011f\u0131na dair proqnozlar verilirdi. H\u0259tta bu prosesin 2026-c\u0131 ild\u0259 d\u0259 davam ed\u0259c\u0259yi g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neft Ara\u015fd\u0131rmalar\u0131 M\u0259rk\u0259zinin r\u0259hb\u0259ri \u0130lham \u015eaban\u0131n fikrinc\u0259, neftin qiym\u0259tinin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u0259sas s\u0259b\u0259bi Ukrayna v\u0259 Rusiya aras\u0131nda tezlikl\u0259 \u0259ld\u0259 oluna bil\u0259c\u0259k s\u00fclh raz\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131na dair \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcl\u0259n siqnallard\u0131r: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBu raz\u0131la\u015fmalar \u00e7\u0259r\u00e7iv\u0259sind\u0259 AB\u015e t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n Rusiyaya qar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n sanksiyalar\u0131n yum\u015fald\u0131lmas\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 fikirl\u0259r s\u0259sl\u0259ndirilir. Bunun n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 bazarlara b\u00f6y\u00fck h\u0259cmd\u0259 Rusiya neftinin \u00e7\u0131xar\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259r yaran\u0131b. 2022-ci il dekabr\u0131n 1-d\u0259 Rusiya neftin\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 Avropa sanksiyalar\u0131 q\u00fcvv\u0259y\u0259 mindi. Daha sonra AB\u015e bu sanksiyalar\u0131 daha da s\u0259rtl\u0259\u015fdirdi. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 t\u0259qrib\u0259n 1,1 milyon barel Rusiya neftinin xarici bazarlara \u00e7\u0131xar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131 al\u0131nd\u0131\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ekspertin s\u00f6zl\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, 2025-ci ild\u0259 \u201cBrent\u201d markal\u0131 neftin orta qiym\u0259ti 68 dollar t\u0259\u015fkil edib, 2026-c\u0131 il \u00fczr\u0259 proqnozlarda is\u0259 bu g\u00f6st\u0259ricinin 59-62 dollar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neft ucuzla\u015f\u0131r, d\u00f6vl\u0259t  b\u00fcdc\u0259sind\u0259 riskl\u0259r art\u0131r<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Az\u0259rbaycan D\u00f6vl\u0259t G\u00f6mr\u00fck Komit\u0259sinin r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259rin\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r yetirdikd\u0259 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr ki, ilin 10 ay\u0131 \u0259rzind\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan neftinin orta sat\u0131\u015f qiym\u0259ti 70 dollar\/barel s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 olub. 2025-ci ilin d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sind\u0259 d\u0259 xam neftin bir barelinin qiym\u0259ti 70 dollar g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcb. Bu bax\u0131mdan, haz\u0131rk\u0131 qiym\u0259t s\u0259viyy\u0259si cari ild\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259 g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin formala\u015fmas\u0131na ciddi t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rmir. Lakin \u201cqara q\u0131z\u0131l\u201d\u0131n qiym\u0259ti a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259kd\u0259 davam ed\u0259rs\u0259, bu hal g\u0259l\u0259n ilin d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sinin g\u0259lirl\u0259rind\u0259 riskl\u0259r yarada bil\u0259r. Bel\u0259 ki, 2026-c\u0131 ilin d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sind\u0259 neftin bir barelinin qiym\u0259ti 65 dollar s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n edilib.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130lham \u015eaban bildirir ki, haz\u0131rda Az\u0259rbaycan neftinin qiym\u0259ti t\u0259xmin\u0259n 63 dollard\u0131r v\u0259 qiym\u0259t bu s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 qalarsa, b\u00fcdc\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259ri azald\u0131lacaq: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cH\u00f6kum\u0259t n\u00fcmay\u0259nd\u0259l\u0259ri Milli M\u0259clisd\u0259 \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015flar\u0131 zaman\u0131 da qeyd edibl\u0259r ki, neftin bir barelinin qiym\u0259tinin h\u0259r 1 dollar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si v\u0259 ya qalxmas\u0131 b\u00fcdc\u0259y\u0259 daxilolmalara 200\u2013300 milyon manat t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir. D\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sin\u0259 t\u0259sirl\u0259r\u0259 g\u0259linc\u0259, 2025-ci ilin b\u00fcdc\u0259sind\u0259 3 milyard manatl\u0131q k\u0259sir proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015fd\u0131. Lakin noyabr\u0131n 1-n\u0259 olan statistikaya \u0259sas\u0259n, b\u00fcdc\u0259d\u0259 5 milyard manatl\u0131q profisit yaran\u0131b. Bu da onu g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, h\u00f6kum\u0259t x\u0259rcl\u0259m\u0259l\u0259ri azaldaraq m\u00fcmk\u00fcn riskl\u0259ri aradan qald\u0131r\u0131r\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dig\u0259r iqtisad\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 is\u0259, g\u0259l\u0259n il bir t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n neft hasilat\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131, dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n is\u0259 xam neft v\u0259 t\u0259bii qaz\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 fonunda Az\u0259rbaycanda iqtisadi riskl\u0259rin v\u0259 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn b\u00f6hran ehtimal\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 qa\u00e7\u0131lmazd\u0131r. X\u00fcsusil\u0259 2025-ci ilin ilk 9 ay\u0131nda Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n t\u0259diy\u0259 balans\u0131nda 1,1 milyard dollarl\u0131q k\u0259sirin yaranmas\u0131 bu riskl\u0259ri daha da art\u0131r\u0131r. \u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131lar hesab edirl\u0259r ki, bu proses n\u00f6vb\u0259ti devalvasiyaya g\u0259tirib \u00e7\u0131xara bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n fikrinc\u0259, g\u0259l\u0259n il devalvasiya m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259si \u0259sas\u0259n neft v\u0259 qaz\u0131n qiym\u0259t dinamikas\u0131ndan, el\u0259c\u0259 d\u0259 t\u0259diy\u0259 balans\u0131n\u0131n k\u0259sirl\u0259 qal\u0131b-qalmayaca\u011f\u0131ndan as\u0131l\u0131 olacaq. \u00c7\u00fcnki k\u0259sir nisb\u0259t\u0259n ki\u00e7ik olduqda M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank m\u00f6vcud valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131 hesab\u0131na m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259 sabitliyini devalvasiyas\u0131z qoruya bilir. Lakin defisit b\u00f6y\u00fck olduqda v\u0259 bu proses davaml\u0131 xarakter ald\u0131qda devalvasiya art\u0131q qa\u00e7\u0131lmaz olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00f6vb\u0259ti devalvasiya g\u00f6zl\u0259nilirmi?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131-ekspert Xalid K\u0259rimli Meydan TV-y\u0259 a\u00e7\u0131qlamas\u0131nda bildirib ki, t\u0259diy\u0259 balans\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 narahatedici m\u0259qam yoxdur, \u00e7\u00fcnki proqnoza uy\u011fun h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t edilir: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBu ilin 9 ay\u0131n t\u0259diy\u0259 balans\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rin\u0259 baxd\u0131qda, \u00f6t\u0259n ill\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 azalma m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olunur. Cari \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar balans\u0131 3,9 milyard dollardan 3 milyard dollara q\u0259d\u0259r a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb. Burada narahat olacaq m\u0259qam yoxdur, \u00e7\u00fcnki proqnoza uy\u011fun h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t edilir. H\u0259m h\u00f6kum\u0259tin, h\u0259m d\u0259 M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n ilin sonuna q\u0259d\u0259r cari \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar balans\u0131n\u0131n qal\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259xmin\u0259n 2,9 milyard dollar s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 olaca\u011f\u0131na dair proqnozlar\u0131 var idi. Haz\u0131rk\u0131 t\u0259diyy\u0259 balans\u0131n\u0131n qal\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0259min proqnozlara uy\u011fundur. T\u0259bii ki, azalma g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n idi. Eyni zamanda n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 almal\u0131y\u0131q ki, neftin qiym\u0259tind\u0259 v\u0259 neft hasilat\u0131nda m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n azalmalar var. X\u00fcsusil\u0259 neft sektorundan qaynaqlanan bu azalma t\u0259diy\u0259 balans\u0131n\u0131n cari \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar balans\u0131na m\u0259nfi t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rib. Xarici ticar\u0259t balans\u0131nda da azalma var. Amma bunlar narahatl\u0131q do\u011furan m\u0259qamlar deyil\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6zl\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259,  h\u00f6kum\u0259t 11 ayda q\u0131z\u0131l ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00f6y\u00fck h\u0259cmd\u0259 art\u0131r\u0131b: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u018fg\u0259r \u00f6t\u0259n ilin 11 ay\u0131nda q\u0131z\u0131l ehtiyatlar\u0131na s\u0259rf olunan v\u0259sait 3,4 milyard dollar t\u0259\u015fkil edirdis\u0259, bu il bu r\u0259q\u0259m 5\u20136 milyard dollar s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259lib. Y\u0259ni resurslar\u0131n bir hiss\u0259si Neft Fondunun q\u0131z\u0131l ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6n\u0259ldilib.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130xracat balans\u0131nda dig\u0259r \u0259sas diqq\u0259t \u00e7\u0259k\u0259n m\u0259qam is\u0259 avtomobil al\u0131\u015f\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 statistikada art\u0131m\u0131n m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olunmas\u0131d\u0131r. Y\u0259ni bu il daha \u00e7ox insan avtomobil al\u0131b. Bu da avtomobill\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 idxal vergi g\u00fcz\u0259\u015ftl\u0259rinin ilin sonuna l\u0259\u011fv edilm\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. G\u0259l\u0259n il vergil\u0259r t\u0259tbiq edil\u0259c\u0259yin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, bu istiqam\u0259td\u0259 idxal a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u0259c\u0259k.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, \u0259halinin \u0259rzaq istehlak\u0131na daha \u00e7ox v\u0259sait s\u0259rf olunub. Bunun da \u0259sas s\u0259b\u0259bi inflyasiyad\u0131r. \u018frzaq m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k inflyasiya m\u00f6vcuddur. T\u00fcrkiy\u0259d\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k inflyasiya, Rusiyada rublun ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin dollarda artmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olur v\u0259 b\u00fct\u00fcn bu g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r dollarla ifad\u0259 olunur.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00dcmumi \u015f\u0259kild\u0259, t\u0259diy\u0259 balans\u0131nda ciddi narahatl\u0131q do\u011furan m\u0259qam yoxdur v\u0259 \u0259hali buna g\u00f6r\u0259 narahat olmaya bil\u0259r. 12 ayl\u0131q t\u0259diy\u0259 balans\u0131 m\u0259lumatlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131qlanandan sonra daha d\u0259qiq proqnoz verm\u0259k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacaq, amma \u00fcmumilikd\u0259 indiki r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259r g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259rdir\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u00dcmumilikd\u0259, 9 ayl\u0131q d\u00f6vrd\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259 s\u0259rv\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 10 milyard dollarl\u0131q art\u0131m var. Bu, Neft Fondu resurslar\u0131n\u0131n yerl\u0259\u015fdirildiyi q\u0131z\u0131l ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259tinin artmas\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Son 2-3 ild\u0259 Neft Fondu intensiv \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 q\u0131z\u0131l al\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irir v\u0259 resurslar\u0131n\u0131 q\u0131z\u0131la transfer edir. Bu bax\u0131mdan, 9 ayl\u0131q n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259r daha pozitiv dinamikan\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Neft resurslar\u0131ndan g\u0259l\u0259n g\u0259lirl\u0259r azalsa da, Neft Fondu resurslar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczg\u00fcn idar\u0259 olunmas\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259lveri\u015fli v\u0259ziyy\u0259t yarad\u0131b. Haz\u0131rk\u0131 r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259r g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n diapazonda oldu\u011funa g\u00f6r\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ciddi maliyy\u0259 riski yaratm\u0131r\u201d, <\/em>– dey\u0259 X.K\u0259rimli qeyd edir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Onun s\u00f6zl\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, cari \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar hesab\u0131n\u0131n v\u0259 xarici ticar\u0259t balans\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcsb\u0259t saldoda olmas\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259nin maliyy\u0259 dayan\u0131ql\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 qoruma\u011fa imkan verir. Bu bax\u0131mdan iqtisad\u00e7\u0131 yax\u0131n g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259kd\u0259 devalvasiya riskinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNeftin qiym\u0259tind\u0259 olan azalma devalvasiya riski yaratm\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnki cari \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar balans\u0131 v\u0259 xarici ticar\u0259t balans\u0131 m\u00fcsb\u0259tdir. D\u00f6vl\u0259tin valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131 artd\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259 h\u0259l\u0259 ki devalvasiyaya m\u0259cburiyy\u0259t yoxdur. Amma siyasi q\u0259rarlarda kims\u0259 f\u0259rqli fikir y\u00fcr\u00fcd\u0259 bil\u0259r, lakin d\u0259yi\u015fiklik \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn he\u00e7 bir s\u0259b\u0259b v\u0259 m\u0259cburiyy\u0259t yoxdur\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

D\u00fcnya bazarlar\u0131nda neftin qiym\u0259ti ucuzla\u015fmaqda davam edir. Cari ilin yanvar … <\/p>\n

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