{"id":339163,"date":"2025-12-16T19:33:32","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T15:33:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/?p=339163"},"modified":"2025-12-16T19:33:34","modified_gmt":"2025-12-16T15:33:34","slug":"postneft-dovru-kabusu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/postneft-dovru-kabusu\/","title":{"rendered":"Postneft d\u00f6vr\u00fc kabusu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u00a0KHAR Center-in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/kharcenter.com\/arasdirmalar\/postneft-dovru-kabusu\">material\u0131<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Giri\u015f<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131 2027-2035-ci ill\u0259r aras\u0131nda d\u0259rin b\u00f6hran g\u00f6zl\u0259yir. Otuz ildir enerji g\u0259lirl\u0259rin\u0259 \u0259saslanan idar\u0259etm\u0259 modeli resurs l\u0259n\u0259tinin qurban\u0131na \u00e7evrilm\u0259kd\u0259dir. Neft bumu zaman\u0131 formala\u015fan&nbsp; maliyy\u0259 dayan\u0131ql\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u0259dric\u0259n kritik s\u0259viyy\u0259y\u0259 enir. T\u0259n\u0259zz\u00fcl yaln\u0131z iqtisadiyyatla m\u0259hdudla\u015fm\u0131r, siyasi v\u0259 institusional s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 d\u0259 \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc biruz\u0259 verir. Rejim m\u00f6vcud v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n bir m\u00fcdd\u0259t d\u0259 qoruyub saxlama\u011f\u0131 bacarsa bel\u0259, yax\u0131nla\u015fan sars\u0131nt\u0131lara reaksiya qabiliyy\u0259tinin&nbsp; adekvat olaca\u011f\u0131 a\u011flabatan deyil. \u00d6lk\u0259d\u0259 ba\u015f al\u0131b ged\u0259n repressiyalar, siyas\u0259tin l\u0259\u011fvi, \u00fcmumiyy\u0259tl\u0259 h\u0259r bir f\u0259rqli fikrin x\u0259yan\u0259t kimi dam\u011falanmas\u0131 sistemin yax\u0131nla\u015fan bu \u00e7\u0259tin d\u00f6vr\u00fc \u0259n\u0259n\u0259vi metodlarla qar\u015f\u0131lama\u011fa haz\u0131rla\u015fd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6lk\u0259nin v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti getdikc\u0259 postneft d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u00fcn qa\u00e7\u0131lmaz ger\u00e7\u0259yi, resurslar\u0131n s\u0259ssiz v\u0259 m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259li&nbsp; \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 t\u00fck\u0259nm\u0259si il\u0259 xarakteriz\u0259 olunur. D\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sind\u0259ki nisbi sabitlik v\u0259 valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259l\u0259 &#8220;yet\u0259rli&#8221; g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u0259si aldad\u0131c\u0131d\u0131r. H\u0259qiq\u0259td\u0259 is\u0259 renta azal\u0131r, sosial m\u00fcqavil\u0259nin \u0259sas prinsipl\u0259ri z\u0259ifl\u0259yir v\u0259 avtoritar idar\u0259etm\u0259nin vacib elementi olan \u201cpul m\u00fcqabilind\u0259 s\u00fckut\u201d raz\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 art\u0131q \u0259vv\u0259lki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc itirm\u0259kd\u0259dir. Bu s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n 2027\u20132035-ci ill\u0259r Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yaln\u0131z \u201cnisb\u0259t\u0259n \u00e7\u0259tin bir m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259\u201d deyil. Bu d\u00f6vr, m\u00f6vcud modelin art\u0131q \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc t\u0259krarlaya bilm\u0259diyi, d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n reall\u0131qlara uy\u011funla\u015fma bacar\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 itirdiyi v\u0259 tarixi yolayr\u0131c\u0131na yax\u0131nla\u015fd\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaman kimi d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259ndirilm\u0259lidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>M\u0259qs\u0259d<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Analizin m\u0259qs\u0259di Az\u0259rbaycanda 2027\u20132035-ci ill\u0259r d\u00f6vr\u00fcnd\u0259 start g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u0259c\u0259k t\u00fck\u0259nm\u0259 prosesinin mahiyy\u0259tini a\u00e7maq v\u0259 postneft m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259sinin yaratd\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni risk v\u0259 imkanlar\u0131 siyasi-analitik \u00e7\u0259r\u00e7iv\u0259d\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259kdir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Analiz a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131&nbsp; suallar\u0131 cavabland\u0131rma\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Az\u0259rbaycan postneft d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u0259 haz\u0131rd\u0131rm\u0131?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>M\u00f6vcud model hans\u0131 mexanizml\u0259rl\u0259 t\u00fck\u0259nm\u0259 trayektoriyas\u0131na daxil olur?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu suallar \u00e7\u0259r\u00e7iv\u0259sind\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7 paralel ba\u011f ara\u015fd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>enerji-renta modelinin iqtisadi v\u0259 fiskal davaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>avtoritar sosial m\u00fcqavil\u0259nin a\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>idar\u0259etm\u0259nin struktur z\u0259iflikl\u0259ri v\u0259 b\u00f6hranlar\u0131 idar\u0259 etm\u0259 qabiliyy\u0259tinin olmamas\u0131.<br><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>&nbsp;Varl\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259nin kas\u0131b g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yi paradoksu<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n neft hekay\u0259si art\u0131q bitm\u0259y\u0259 yax\u0131nla\u015f\u0131r. G\u00f6rd\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fcz hasilat azalmalar\u0131 ac\u0131 reall\u0131qd\u0131r. Yeni yataqlar\u0131n tap\u0131lmas\u0131 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259sind\u0259 d\u0259 ir\u0259lil\u0259yi\u015f yoxdur. BP-nin illik enerji icmallar\u0131 v\u0259 EIA \u00f6lk\u0259 profill\u0259ri, neft istehsal\u0131n\u0131n 2010-cu ill\u0259rin \u0259vv\u0259ll\u0259rind\u0259 \u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k s\u0259viyy\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7atd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir. O zamandan b\u0259ri bu sah\u0259d\u0259 davaml\u0131 azalma m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olunur. SOCAR-\u0131n r\u0259smi statistikas\u0131 da A\u00c7G blokunda hasilat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259sind\u0259 oldu\u011funu t\u0259sdiql\u0259yir.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bak\u0131 Ara\u015fd\u0131rmalar \u0130nstitutunun haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 analitik icmala g\u00f6r\u0259, 2025-ci ild\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanda 27,5 milyon ton xam neft hasilat\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir. Bu, 2010-cu ill\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 az qala iki d\u0259f\u0259 azd\u0131r. H\u0259min il neft hasilat\u0131 50,5 milyon ton t\u0259\u015fkil etmi\u015fdi. \u0130cmalda&nbsp; 2026-c\u0131 ild\u0259 \u00fcmumi hasilat\u0131n 27 milyon tondan da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259sinin g\u00f6zl\u0259nildiyi bildirilir v\u0259 bu zaman Az\u0259rbaycan h\u00f6kum\u0259tinin 2030-cu il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r sosial-iqtisadi inki\u015faf proqnozlar\u0131na istinad edilir.&nbsp; 2010-2024-c\u00fc ill\u0259rd\u0259 xam neft hasilat\u0131n\u0131n k\u0259skin azalmas\u0131na paralel t\u0259bii qaz hasilat\u0131n\u0131n 2,5 d\u0259f\u0259, xaric\u0259 ixrac\u0131n\u0131n is\u0259 4 d\u0259f\u0259d\u0259n \u00e7ox artmas\u0131na, son 3 ild\u0259 Rusiya-Ukrayna m\u00fcharib\u0259si s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n enerji qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin bahala\u015fmas\u0131na baxmayaraq, Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n resurs g\u0259lirl\u0259rind\u0259 ciddi azalma ba\u015f verib. 2010-cu ild\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259t Neft Fondu v\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259si vasit\u0259sil\u0259 19 mlrd. dollar neft g\u0259lirl\u0259ri \u0259ld\u0259 etdiyi halda, 2024-c\u00fc ild\u0259 6,5 mlrd. dollar azalaraq 13,5 mlrd. dollara enib. 2025-ci il \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn icmal b\u00fcdc\u0259nin neft-qaz g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin \u00fcmumi m\u0259bl\u0259\u011finin 12 milyard dollardan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u0259c\u0259yi g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir (BR\u0130, Nov 2025).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bununla yana\u015f\u0131, D\u00fcnya Bank\u0131 v\u0259 IEA-n\u0131n hesabatlar\u0131nda qeyd olunur ki, son d\u00f6vrl\u0259rd\u0259 yeni b\u00f6y\u00fck kommersiya yataqlar\u0131 a\u015fkarlanmay\u0131b. Haz\u0131rk\u0131 strategiya \u0259sas\u0259n m\u00f6vcud yataqlar\u0131n maksimum d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 istismar\u0131na y\u00f6n\u0259lib (BP, 2022. IEA, 2022. World Bank, 2024a. Minenergy, 2024 ). Gedi\u015fat onu g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fch\u0259rriki, h\u0259tta \u0259liyevl\u0259rin u\u011furlu diplomatiyas\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7ar\u0131 olan&nbsp; SOCAR-BP \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yax\u0131nda tarix\u0259 qovu\u015facaq. Hal-haz\u0131rda&nbsp; bu \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131q platformas\u0131n\u0131n qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndak\u0131 \u0259sas sual \u201cdaha b\u00f6y\u00fck g\u0259lirl\u0259ri nec\u0259 \u0259ld\u0259 ed\u0259k?\u201d olmaqdan \u00e7\u0131x\u0131b \u201ceni\u015fi nec\u0259 idar\u0259 ed\u0259k?\u201d formas\u0131na \u00e7evrilib.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Uzun bir d\u00f6vr \u0259rzind\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259nin iqtisadi inki\u015faf\u0131 neftd\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131 v\u0259ziyy\u0259t\u0259 sal\u0131n\u0131b. Az\u0259ri-\u00c7\u0131raq-G\u00fcn\u0259\u015fli v\u0259 \u015eahd\u0259niz kimi \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli layih\u0259l\u0259r ill\u0259r boyu rifah, stabillik v\u0259 g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259y\u0259 dair \u00fcmidin simvolu idi (president.az, 2024). Lakin h\u0259min layih\u0259l\u0259rin pik m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259si art\u0131q gerid\u0259 qal\u0131b. H\u0259m\u00e7inin, enerji \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259rinin yana\u015fmalar\u0131 da d\u0259yi\u015fib. Ke\u00e7mi\u015fd\u0259 risk etm\u0259y\u0259 haz\u0131r olan s\u0259rmay\u0259darlar indi daha ehtiyatl\u0131 davran\u0131rlar. Bunun ba\u015fl\u0131ca s\u0259b\u0259bi b\u0259rpa olunan enerji sah\u0259sinin c\u0259lbediciliyi, neft v\u0259 qaz\u0131n is\u0259 getdikc\u0259 \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tinin azalmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130ri \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259r art\u0131q uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259tli neft layih\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 \u0259vv\u0259lki mara\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rmirl\u0259r. Bu, h\u0259m d\u0259 o dem\u0259kdir ki, enerji resurslar\u0131na \u0259saslanan xarici siyas\u0259t d\u0259 effektivliyini itir\u0259c\u0259k.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bel\u0259likl\u0259, rejimin \u00fczl\u0259\u015f\u0259c\u0259yi problem yaln\u0131z daxili iqtisadi \u00e7\u0259tinlikl\u0259r olmayacaq. Eyni zamanda, xarici siyas\u0259td\u0259 legitimlik vasit\u0259si kimi istifad\u0259 etdiyi neft diplomatiyas\u0131 da \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tini itir\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Resurs g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin azalaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6vrd\u0259 ba\u015f ver\u0259c\u0259k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn<\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259rin Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn riskl\u0259ri art\u0131ran \u0259n m\u00fch\u00fcm c\u0259h\u0259ti odur ki, Avropan\u0131n enerji siyas\u0259tind\u0259ki transformasiya gerid\u00f6nm\u0259z xarakter al\u0131b.&nbsp; Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131n\u0131n 2030 v\u0259 2050-ci il \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ya\u015f\u0131l enerji h\u0259d\u0259fl\u0259rini h\u00fcquqi \u00f6hd\u0259likl\u0259r kimi m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n etm\u0259si, karbohidrogenl\u0259r\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259n normativ bir iqtisadi istiqam\u0259tdir (European Commission, 2021). Bu, Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n ixrac co\u011frafiyas\u0131nda \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck m\u00fc\u015ft\u0259ri il\u0259 uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli strateji \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 itirm\u0259k riskini da\u015f\u0131y\u0131r.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u00fczd\u00fcr, neft v\u0259 qaz sektoru h\u0259l\u0259 bir m\u00fcdd\u0259t d\u0259 g\u0259lir g\u0259tir\u0259c\u0259k, lakin bu g\u0259lirl\u0259rin strateji \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259ti azal\u0131r. \u018fn \u00f6n\u0259mlisi, h\u00f6kum\u0259t diversifikasiyan\u0131n simulyasiyas\u0131 il\u0259 m\u0259\u015f\u011ful oldu\u011fundan postkarbon d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u00fcn t\u0259l\u0259bl\u0259rin\u0259 uy\u011fun yeni iqtisadi sektorlara malik deyil. Yax\u0131n 10 ild\u0259 haz\u0131rk\u0131 neft-qaz g\u0259lirl\u0259rini n\u0259inki b\u00fct\u00f6vl\u00fckd\u0259, h\u0259tta yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bel\u0259 t\u0259min ed\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259k dayan\u0131ql\u0131 iqtisadi sah\u0259l\u0259r yarad\u0131lmay\u0131b. \u0130xrac\u0131n strukturunda y\u00fcks\u0259k texnoloji m\u0259hsullar\u0131n yoxlu\u011fu, daxili istehlak \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bu q\u0259bild\u0259n m\u0259hsullar\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131n xaricd\u0259n g\u0259tirilm\u0259si, t\u0259hsilin bir sistem olaraq m\u0259hvi v\u0259 \u0259m\u0259k bazar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn pe\u015f\u0259kar, bilikli kadrlar haz\u0131rmaq potensial\u0131n\u0131n itirilm\u0259si g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, \u00f6lk\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131 postneft eras\u0131na q\u0259tiyy\u0259n haz\u0131r deyil. B\u00f6y\u00fck neft g\u0259lirl\u0259ri d\u00f6vr\u00fcnd\u0259 hakimiyy\u0259tin davaml\u0131 olaraq geni\u015f h\u0259cmli pul emissiyas\u0131 vasit\u0259sil\u0259 ke\u00e7ici sosial v\u0259 siyasi sabitlik modeli yaratmas\u0131 art\u0131q fini\u015f\u0259 yax\u0131nla\u015f\u0131r. Son ill\u0259rd\u0259 ilk d\u0259f\u0259 n\u00f6vb\u0259ti ilin b\u00fcdc\u0259sinin faktiki olaraq art\u0131ms\u0131z t\u0259sdil\u0259nm\u0259si bunun h\u0259l\u0259lik ki\u00e7ik ba\u015flan\u011f\u0131c\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n iqtisadi g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yi Avropa bazar\u0131n\u0131n get-ged\u0259 daralan imkanlar\u0131na kilidl\u0259nmi\u015f v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259 qalacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Neft Fondu ill\u00fcziyas\u0131<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u00f6vl\u0259t Neft Fondunun maliyy\u0259 resurslar\u0131 b\u00f6y\u00fck m\u0259bl\u0259\u011fl\u0259rl\u0259 ifad\u0259 olunsa da, \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259ki artan sosial t\u0259l\u0259bl\u0259r, infrastruktur x\u0259rcl\u0259ri, idxaldan as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131q v\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyi bu kapital\u0131n ger\u00e7\u0259k d\u0259y\u0259rini azald\u0131r (SOFAZ, 12025a). \u00dcst\u0259lik, Neft Fondunun aktivl\u0259rinin t\u0259xmin\u0259n d\u00f6rdd\u0259 birini t\u0259\u015fkil ed\u0259n q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259ti d\u00fcnya iqtisadiyyatndak\u0131 riskl\u0259rl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 son 3 ild\u0259 az qala 2 d\u0259f\u0259 bahalan\u0131b. Y\u0259nu h\u0259m qlobal maliyy\u0259 bazarlar\u0131nda, h\u0259m d\u0259 qiym\u0259tli metallar bazar\u0131nda \u015fi\u015fmi\u015f balonlar var v\u0259 riskl\u0259rin da daha azalaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6vrd\u0259 Fondun aktivl\u0259rinin kapitalizasiyas\u0131n\u0131n ki\u00e7ilm\u0259si v\u0259 ona uy\u011fun ehtiyatlar\u0131n bir hiss\u0259sinin itirilm\u0259si d\u0259 qa\u00e7\u0131lmazd\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fond neftsiz iqtisadiyyata ke\u00e7idi d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259m\u0259k \u0259v\u0259zin\u0259, cari b\u00fcdc\u0259nin maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259sind\u0259 bir n\u00f6v yast\u0131q rolunu oynama\u011fa davam edir. Neft fondunun illik b\u00fcdc\u0259 transferl\u0259rin\u0259 bax\u0131larsa, m\u00f6vcud v\u0259ziyy\u0259t daha ayd\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u0259r (SOFAZ, 2024). Bu balanss\u0131zl\u0131q 2030-cu il yax\u0131nla\u015fd\u0131qca daha da k\u0259skinl\u0259\u015f\u0259c\u0259k. Halbuki Neft Fondu \u00f6lk\u0259ni g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259kd\u0259 ba\u015f ver\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259k iqtisadi \u015foklardan qorumaq, m\u00fcxt\u0259lif iqtisadi sah\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 maliyy\u0259 d\u0259st\u0259yi verm\u0259k v\u0259 postneft d\u00f6vr\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn strateji kapital toplamaq m\u0259qs\u0259dil\u0259 yarad\u0131l\u0131b (SOFAZ, Mission and Objectives). Ancaq praktik t\u0259tbiql\u0259rd\u0259 fond d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sinin pul kis\u0259sin\u0259 \u00e7evrilib. Bu, sosial paketl\u0259rin maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259sini, inzibati orqanlar\u0131n saxlan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, s\u0259m\u0259r\u0259siz infrastruktur layih\u0259l\u0259ri, h\u00f6kum\u0259tin populist q\u0259rarlar\u0131 v\u0259 idxala y\u00f6n\u0259lmi\u015f istehlak x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin qar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6z\u00fcnd\u0259 ehtiva edir (SOFAZ, 2025b). Haz\u0131rda neft g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin azalmas\u0131 b\u00fcdc\u0259nin Fond qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda olan t\u0259l\u0259bl\u0259rini daha da art\u0131r\u0131r. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259, 2030-cu il yax\u0131nla\u015fd\u0131qca Fond t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik yast\u0131\u011f\u0131 rolunu itir\u0259r\u0259k t\u00fck\u0259n\u0259n amortizatora \u00e7evrilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Labirint<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Siyasi sistem is\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131dan g\u0259l\u0259n qa\u00e7\u0131lmaz b\u00f6hran\u0131 kommunikasiya m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259si kimi t\u0259qdim edir. Burada m\u0259qs\u0259d b\u00f6hran\u0131n h\u0259llin\u0259 istiqam\u0259tl\u0259nmi\u015f islahat planlar\u0131 il\u0259 \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f etm\u0259k deyil; \u0259ksin\u0259, c\u0259miyy\u0259tin \u015f\u00fcurunda t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259 hissini canl\u0131 saxlamaqd\u0131r. Saxta v\u0259t\u0259np\u0259rv\u0259rlik v\u0259 militarizasiya yax\u0131nla\u015fan sosial-iqtisadi b\u00f6hran d\u00f6vr\u00fcnd\u0259 xalq\u0131 uydurulmu\u015f t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 aldatmaq m\u0259qs\u0259di g\u00fcd\u00fcr. Bu yana\u015fma Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n indiki siyasi strukturlar\u0131n\u0131n \u0259sas c\u0259h\u0259tini a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131xar\u0131r: yaranan probleml\u0259ri aradan qald\u0131rmaqdan daha \u00e7ox, onlar\u0131n ictimai qavray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 idar\u0259 etm\u0259k c\u0259hdi.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rejim yax\u0131nla\u015fan b\u00f6hran\u0131n iqtisadi strukturdak\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmazl\u0131qlar oldu\u011funu gizl\u0259tm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r, \u00e7\u00fcnki bu, modelin \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u00f6hn\u0259ldiyinin etiraf\u0131 dem\u0259kdir. Bu s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n h\u00f6kum\u0259t statistik m\u0259lumatlarla oynayaraq v\u0259 ac\u0131 reall\u0131\u011f\u0131 &#8220;m\u00fcv\u0259qq\u0259ti \u00e7\u0259tinlik&#8221; kimi g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259r\u0259k lab\u00fcd b\u00f6hran\u0131n ictimai m\u00fczakir\u0259sinin qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131r.&nbsp; Lakin bu taktika \u0259n yax\u015f\u0131 halda b\u00f6hran\u0131n k\u0259skinliyini gizl\u0259dir. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 h\u0259l\u0259 ki, iqtisadi dal\u011falanma kimi t\u0259zah\u00fcr ed\u0259n problem,&nbsp; idar\u0259\u00e7ilik qabiliyy\u0259tinin t\u00fck\u0259nm\u0259si say\u0259sind\u0259 potensial t\u0259n\u0259zz\u00fcl\u00fcn a\u011f\u0131r b\u00f6hrana \u00e7evrilm\u0259sini \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259ndirir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Statistikada qeyri-neft sektorunun art\u0131m\u0131 kimi t\u0259bli\u011f edil\u0259n r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259rin i\u00e7\u0131 bo\u015fdur. Diversifikasiya yaln\u0131z diskurs s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259dir. Bu, Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131nda&nbsp; \u201cvitrinl\u0259 reall\u0131q\u201d aras\u0131ndak\u0131 \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck u\u00e7urumu ortaya qoyur. Ka\u011f\u0131z \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 innovativ v\u0259 modern g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u0259n layih\u0259l\u0259r \u0259slind\u0259 m\u00f6vcud iqtisadi modelin dekorasiyas\u0131 rolunu oynay\u0131r. N\u0259 yeni istehsal m\u00fc\u0259sis\u0259l\u0259ri yaran\u0131r, n\u0259 ixrac portfeli d\u0259yi\u015fir, n\u0259 d\u0259 m\u0259\u015f\u011fulluqda qeyri-neft sektorunun \u00e7\u0259kisi art\u0131r (World Bank, 2024b). Diversifikasiya diskursdan o yana ke\u00e7m\u0259diyi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259tic\u0259 d\u0259 s\u0131f\u0131ra b\u0259rab\u0259r olur.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;\u018fld\u0259 olunan art\u0131m is\u0259 s\u0131rf vergi siyas\u0259tinin s\u0259rtl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si hesab\u0131nad\u0131r. H\u00f6kum\u0259t iqtisadiyyat\u0131 formala\u015fd\u0131rm\u0131r, sad\u0259c\u0259 m\u00f6vcud d\u0259y\u0259ri daha aqressiv \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 vergiy\u0259 c\u0259lb edir (World Bank, 2024). Bu mexanizm b\u00f6hran\u0131 gecikdirir, amma h\u0259ll etmir. Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131nda son ill\u0259rin \u0259n m\u00fch\u00fcm tendensiyalar\u0131ndan biri m\u0259hz budur. Qeyri-neft g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin artmas\u0131 r\u0259smi r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259rd\u0259 iqtisadi diversifikasiyan\u0131n g\u00f6st\u0259ricisi kimi t\u0259qdim edilir, reall\u0131qda is\u0259 bu art\u0131m\u0131n m\u0259nb\u0259yi ki\u00e7ik v\u0259 orta biznes \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 fiskal t\u0259zyiqin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, c\u0259rim\u0259l\u0259rin \u00e7oxalmas\u0131 v\u0259 vergi bazas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcni \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 geni\u015fl\u0259ndirilm\u0259sidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>T\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259li olan odur ki, iqtisadiyyat\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fc geni\u015fl\u0259nmir, d\u00f6vl\u0259t sad\u0259c\u0259 vergi y\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fccl\u0259ndirir. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 iqtisadi dinamizm s\u0131n\u0131r. Bunun \u0259n bariz \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 2 fakt g\u00f6st\u0259rir: m\u00fcst\u0259qil qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, 2019-2025-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan iqtisadiyyat\u0131 real olaraq c\u0259mi 16% b\u00f6y\u00fcd\u00fcy\u00fc halda, b\u00fcdc\u0259 g\u0259lirl\u0259ri 65%-\u0259 yax\u0131n art\u0131b. \u0130qtisadi b\u00f6y\u00fcm\u0259nin s\u00fcr\u0259ti b\u00fcdc\u0259nin geni\u015fl\u0259nm\u0259sinin art\u0131m s\u00fcr\u0259tinin ayaqlar\u0131 alt\u0131nda s\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcr. Bu mexanizml\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259t probleml\u0259ri sad\u0259c\u0259 n\u00f6vb\u0259ti ill\u0259r\u0259 \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcr. Dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n, daralan maliyy\u0259 bu mexanizmin d\u0259 limitini dolduracaq. \u00c7\u00f6k\u0259n iqtisadiyyatda \u201cy\u0131\u011f\u0131m yolu il\u0259 art\u0131m\u201d bir&nbsp; m\u00fcdd\u0259t sonra m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u0130nfrastruktur x\u0259rcl\u0259ri v\u0259 ya meqa-korrupsiya<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n infrastruktur siyas\u0259ti sanki g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k bohran\u0131 maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259k m\u0259qs\u0259di da\u015f\u0131y\u0131r. Yollar, k\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u0259r, stadionlar, parklar b\u00f6y\u00fck maliyy\u0259 v\u0259saiti t\u0259l\u0259b edir, lakin onlar\u0131n gerid\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc &#8211; h\u0259m iqtisadi aktivlik, h\u0259m d\u0259 yeni istehsal subyektl\u0259rinin yarad\u0131lmas\u0131 bax\u0131m\u0131ndan, &#8211; yoxdur. \u0130nfrastrukturun d\u0259y\u0259r yaratmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn onu m\u00fc\u015fayi\u0259t ed\u0259n biznes ekosistemi, yerli istehsal, innovativ sektorlar v\u0259 r\u0259qab\u0259t m\u00fchiti \u015f\u0259rtdir (R\u00e9ka Juh\u00e1sz, Nathan J. Lane, Dani Rodrik, 2023). Bu komponentl\u0259r olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00e7oxsayl\u0131 layih\u0259l\u0259r yaln\u0131z tikintid\u0259n-tikintiy\u0259 pul d\u00f6vriyy\u0259si v\u0259 m\u00fcv\u0259qq\u0259ti i\u015f yeri yarad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eyni zamanda infrastruktur investisiyalar\u0131 iqtisadi ehtiyaclardan uzaq, siyasi prioritetl\u0259r\u0259 uy\u011fun apar\u0131l\u0131r. Bel\u0259 layih\u0259l\u0259r hakim ail\u0259\\d\u00f6vl\u0259t\u0259 yax\u0131n \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn maliyy\u0259 kanal\u0131 rolunu oynay\u0131r v\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 renta b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015fd\u00fcrm\u0259 mexanizmin\u0259 \u00e7evrilir (OCCRP, 2017).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bel\u0259c\u0259, milyardlarla manatl\u0131q investisiyalar \u201cd\u0259y\u0259r yaradan\u201d deyil, \u201cd\u0259y\u0259r x\u0259rcl\u0259y\u0259n\u201d layih\u0259l\u0259r kimi f\u0259aliyy\u0259t g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Bu t\u0259kc\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259nin y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fd\u0131rm\u0131r, h\u0259m d\u0259 iqtisadiyyatda s\u0259rv\u0259t itkisi yarad\u0131r, y\u0259ni pul x\u0259rcl\u0259nir, amma iqtisadi sistem h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259tl\u0259nmir. H\u0259r \u015fey meqa-korrupsiyan\u0131n yeml\u0259nm\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259rf olunur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bu model niy\u0259 yaln\u0131z 2030-cu il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r dayan\u0131r?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Renta azalanda statistik manipulyasiyan\u0131n da limiti dolur. B\u00fcdc\u0259nin azalan g\u0259lirl\u0259ri v\u0259 artan sosial y\u00fck\u00fc daha s\u0259rt vergi siyas\u0259ti do\u011furdu\u011fu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn status-kvonun qorunmas\u0131 modeli art\u0131q i\u015fl\u0259y\u0259 bilmir (Ross, M. L. 2012).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259d\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259tin ill\u0259rl\u0259 istifad\u0259 etdiyi \u201cr\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259rl\u0259 idar\u0259etm\u0259\u201d texnikas\u0131 t\u0259sirini itirir, ax\u0131 manipulyasiya yaln\u0131z resurs bollu\u011fu d\u00f6vr\u00fcnd\u0259 i\u015fl\u0259yir. Renta darald\u0131qca b\u00fcdc\u0259 g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rinin kosmetik \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 cilalanmas\u0131 h\u0259m daha \u00e7\u0259tin, h\u0259m d\u0259 daha baha ba\u015fa g\u0259lir: x\u0259rcl\u0259rin artmas\u0131 v\u0259 g\u0259lirl\u0259rin azalmas\u0131 aras\u0131ndak\u0131 u\u00e7urum art\u0131q statistik ill\u00fcziyalarla \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u0259 bilm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k q\u0259d\u0259r b\u00f6y\u00fcy\u00fcr. Sosial g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259ldikc\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259t maliyy\u0259 imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0259rtl\u0259\u015f\u0259n vergi siyas\u0259ti hesab\u0131na kompensasiya etm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r, bu is\u0259 \u00f6z n\u00f6vb\u0259sind\u0259 iqtisadi aktivliyi z\u0259ifl\u0259dir v\u0259 naraz\u0131l\u0131q bazas\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fl\u0259ndirir (Acemoglu, D. &amp; Robinson, J, 2012).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>B\u00fcdc\u0259 makiyaj\u0131n\u0131n da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131, bel\u0259c\u0259, siyasi modeli d\u0259 mahiyy\u0259tc\u0259 if\u015fa edir. \u00c7\u00fcnki m\u00f6vcud sistem rentan\u0131n yaratd\u0131\u011f\u0131 tamponu itirdiyi anda \u00f6z dayan\u0131ql\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 qorumaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn alternativ mexanizm\u0259 malik deyil. Status-kvonu yaln\u0131z pul il\u0259 saxlayan model, maliyy\u0259 resursu azalanda \u00f6z\u00fc-\u00f6z\u00fcn\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7evrilir v\u0259 siyasi arxitektura ilk d\u0259f\u0259 olaraq reall\u0131\u011f\u0131n dikt\u0259si il\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015fir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u201cSakit ol, rifah\u0131n\u0131 al\u201d d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u00fcn sonu<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Art\u0131q insanlar h\u00f6kum\u0259tin saxta r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259rini yey\u0259 bilmir v\u0259 rifah\u0131n\u0131 bazarda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcr. Bu, Az\u0259rbaycan sosial-iqtisadi reall\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u0259n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u0259n, lakin&nbsp; etiraf edilm\u0259y\u0259n t\u0259r\u0259fidir. C\u0259miyy\u0259t nominal g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rin arxas\u0131nda gizl\u0259dil\u0259n reall\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ox daha d\u0259qiq g\u00f6r\u00fcr: m\u00f6vcud maa\u015fla h\u0259r ay daha az m\u0259hsul al\u0131r, ail\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259si h\u0259r ay daha tez t\u00fck\u0259nir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00d6lk\u0259d\u0259 istehsal z\u0259if oldu\u011fundan bazar\u0131n b\u00f6y\u00fck hiss\u0259si idxalla t\u0259min edilir v\u0259 qlobal qiym\u0259t dal\u011falanmalar\u0131 birba\u015fa \u0259halinin \u00fcz\u0259rin\u0259 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr. \u00dcst\u0259lik, r\u00fcsumlar\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 p\u0259rak\u0259nd\u0259 qiym\u0259t art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 bir az da s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259ndirir. H\u00f6kum\u0259t is\u0259 bu tendensiyas\u0131n\u0131n qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yalan dan\u0131\u015fmaqla kifay\u0259tl\u0259nir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0130nsanlar d\u00f6vl\u0259tin nominal sosial d\u0259st\u0259k sistemin\u0259 d\u0259 g\u00fcv\u0259nmir, \u00e7\u00fcnki h\u0259m keyfiyy\u0259t, h\u0259m d\u0259 \u0259l\u00e7atanl\u0131q bax\u0131m\u0131ndan xidm\u0259tl\u0259r \u00f6z funksiyas\u0131n\u0131 itirib. Bunun n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 ail\u0259l\u0259rin \u00fcz\u0259rin\u0259 d\u00fc\u015f\u0259n \u015f\u0259xsi x\u0259rcl\u0259r k\u0259skin art\u0131r: \u00f6z\u0259l klinikalar, repetitorlar, \u0259lav\u0259 t\u0259hsil kurslar\u0131, n\u0259qliyyat v\u0259 kommunal xidm\u0259tl\u0259r ail\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259sinin b\u00f6y\u00fck hiss\u0259sini udur.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hokum\u0259t m\u0259\u015f\u011fulluq statistikas\u0131 il\u0259 oynayaraq i\u015fsizlik problemini \u00f6rt-basd\u0131r edir; r\u0259smi statistika t\u0259cr\u00fcb\u0259 xarakterli, qeyri-dayan\u0131ql\u0131 i\u015fl\u0259ri m\u0259\u015f\u011fulluq kimi s\u0131r\u0131y\u0131r. Reall\u0131qda b\u00f6y\u00fck problem olan i\u015fsizlik is\u0259 g\u0259ncl\u0259r aras\u0131nda&nbsp; iqtisadi, psixoloji, sosial perspektivl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcmidl\u0259ri \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcr. Bunun do\u011furdu\u011fu reaksiyalardan biri g\u0259ncl\u0259rin \u00f6lk\u0259ni k\u00fctl\u0259vi t\u0259rk etm\u0259sidir: daha yax\u015f\u0131 g\u0259lir, daha \u0259dal\u0259tli m\u00fchit v\u0259 daha proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131la bil\u0259n g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k axtar\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u0259nc n\u0259sli \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259n did\u0259rgin sal\u0131r. \u00dcst\u0259lik h\u0259r 2 n\u0259f\u0259rd\u0259n biri pensiya v\u0259 tibbi s\u0131\u011fortas\u0131z qeyri-formal i\u015fl\u0259rd\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Bu is\u0259 yaxln g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259kd\u0259 100 minl\u0259rl\u0259 insan\u0131n pensiya h\u00fcququ qazanmadan c\u00fczi m\u0259bl\u0259\u011fd\u0259 ah\u0131ll\u0131q m\u00fcavin\u0259tin\u0259 m\u00f6htac qalaca\u011f\u0131 dem\u0259kdir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bel\u0259likl\u0259,&nbsp;<strong><em>statitikadak\u0131 firavan h\u0259yatla&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong>reall\u0131q aras\u0131ndak\u0131 k\u0259skin t\u0259zad c\u0259miyy\u0259td\u0259 h\u0259m sosial yor\u011funluq, h\u0259m d\u0259 etimad b\u00f6hran\u0131 formala\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r. R\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259r art\u0131q real v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti gizl\u0259tm\u0259k g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc itirib. Siyasi model is\u0259 ist\u0259nil\u0259n d\u0259yi\u015fikliyi bo\u011fduqca, renta hesab\u0131na idar\u0259 olunan status-kvo \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fcr.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bu halda hokum\u0259t x\u0259rcl\u0259ri azaldacaq, borclanacaq v\u0259 c\u0259miyy\u0259td\u0259 sosial naraz\u0131l\u0131q d\u0259rinl\u0259\u015f\u0259c\u0259k. Bu \u00fc\u00e7 variant\u0131n h\u0259r biri siyasi t\u0259sirl\u0259ri il\u0259 birlikd\u0259 g\u0259lir: d\u00f6vl\u0259t x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin azalmas\u0131 \u0259halini daha da kas\u0131bla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r, borclanma iqtisadi suverenliyi z\u0259d\u0259l\u0259yir, naraz\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u0259rinl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si is\u0259 rejimin legitimliyini sual alt\u0131na qoyur. Y\u0259ni, art\u0131q sosial m\u00fcqavil\u0259nin b\u00fct\u00fcn s\u00fctunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fcr. \u0130nsanlara \u201csakitlik qar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda minimal rifah\u201d v\u0259d ed\u0259n model art\u0131q i\u015fl\u0259mir. Bu, avtoritar sistemin \u0259sas daya\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6km\u0259si, y\u0259ni&nbsp;<strong>legitimlik b\u00f6hran\u0131n\u0131n<\/strong>&nbsp;x\u0259b\u0259r\u00e7isidir (Seymour Martin Lipset, 1959).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Ya pul, ya qorxu<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Postneft d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u0259 istiqam\u0259tl\u0259nmi\u015f avtoritar rejiml\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bir-birini t\u0259kzib ed\u0259n iki yol qal\u0131r. Birinci yol&nbsp;<strong>h\u0259qiqi islahatlar<\/strong>&nbsp;yoludur. Bu halda siyasi g\u00fcc monopoliyadan \u00e7\u0131xmal\u0131,siyasi sistemin tam hamay\u0259sind\u0259 olan iqtisadi qruplar\u0131n d\u00f6vl\u0259t resurslar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259min ed\u0259n b\u00fct\u00fcn imtiyazlar aradan qald\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131, \u00fcmumilikd\u0259 siyasi hakimiyy\u0259td\u0259 t\u0259msil olunanlar\u0131n ya biznesd\u0259n, ya da siyas\u0259td\u0259n \u00e7\u0259kilm\u0259l\u0259ri ba\u015f verm\u0259li, maraq toqqu\u015famas\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 h\u00fcquqi mexanizml\u0259r tam i\u015f\u0259 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259lidir. M\u0259hk\u0259m\u0259 m\u00fcst\u0259qill\u0259\u015fm\u0259li, real parlament n\u0259zar\u0259ti v\u0259 se\u00e7ki r\u0259qab\u0259ti realla\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu is\u0259 rejimin uzun ill\u0259r formala\u015fd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 dominantl\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 payla\u015fmas\u0131, g\u00fcc arxitekturas\u0131n\u0131 da\u011f\u0131tmas\u0131&nbsp; dem\u0259kdir. \u018fliyevin bu formada \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcz\u0259ifl\u0259tm\u0259 add\u0131m\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259 siyasi irad\u0259si, n\u0259 institusional bazas\u0131 m\u00f6vcuddur. Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 sistem instinktiv \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 ikinci yola,&nbsp;<strong>s\u0259rt avtoritarla\u015fman\u0131n postm\u00fcxalif\u0259t d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u0259<\/strong>&nbsp;ke\u00e7ir. Y\u0259ni resurslar\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131 daha s\u0259rt g\u00fcc t\u0259tbiqi il\u0259 kompensasiya etm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Bunu realla\u015fd\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn is\u0259 repressiyan\u0131 daha da \u015fidd\u0259tl\u0259ndirir (Henry Hale, 2014).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Y\u0259ni haz\u0131rda m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 etdiyimiz s\u0259rtl\u0259\u015fm\u0259 t\u0259sad\u00fcfi v\u0259 spontan proses deyil.<em>&nbsp;A\u015f\u0131nan iqtisadi dayaqlar\u0131 qorumaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn zor aparat\u0131n\u0131n i\u015f\u0259 sal\u0131nmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/em>&nbsp;Bunun ilk elementi t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259 ritorikas\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fl\u0259nm\u0259sidir: sistem iqtisadi \u00e7\u0259tinlikl\u0259ri \u00f6rt-basd\u0131r etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ictimai diqq\u0259ti \u201cdaxili v\u0259 xarici d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259nl\u0259r\u0259\u201d y\u00f6n\u0259ldir v\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259 hissi \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259n siyasi reall\u0131\u011f\u0131 idar\u0259 etm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Paralel olaraq polis\u2013prokurorluq aparat\u0131n\u0131n, DTX-n\u0131n f\u0259all\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r. H\u00fcquq-m\u00fchafiz\u0259 strukturlar\u0131&nbsp;<strong>sosial davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 t\u0259nziml\u0259y\u0259n siyasi aktor<\/strong>&nbsp;kimi \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f edir. \u00dcst\u0259lik Daxili \u0130\u015fl\u0259r Nazirliyinin qo\u015fun q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259ri\u2014Daxili Qo\u015funlar art\u0131q birba\u015fa prezident\u0259 tabe edilir, \u0259sas\u0259n m\u00fchafiz\u0259 funksiyas\u0131ndan ibar\u0259t s\u0259lahiyy\u0259tl\u0259ri&nbsp; h\u00fcquq-m\u00fchafiz\u0259 funksiyas\u0131 istiqm\u0259tind\u0259 geni\u015fl\u0259ndirilir, h\u0259tta \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259ri saxlama s\u0259lahiyy\u0259ti verilir&nbsp; (Meydan TV, December 2025).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Daha s\u0259rt avtoritarla\u015fman\u0131n dig\u0259r m\u00fch\u00fcm elementi d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259n uydurmaqd\u0131r . Rejim ictimai naraz\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00fcnvan\u0131n\u0131 iqtisadi v\u0259 idar\u0259\u00e7ilik probleml\u0259rind\u0259n uzaqla\u015fd\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn QHT-l\u0259ri, siyasi m\u00fchacirl\u0259ri, median\u0131 v\u0259 h\u0259tta bir-birin\u0259 zidd Q\u0259rb-Rusiya t\u0259sirini daxili t\u0259hdid kimi t\u0259qdim edir. Bu narrativl\u0259 yana\u015f\u0131 q\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 x\u0259tl\u0259r d\u0259 geni\u015fl\u0259nir: h\u0259r t\u0259nqid, h\u0259r davran\u0131\u015f, h\u0259r s\u00f6z t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259li v\u0259 qada\u011fan olunmu\u015f say\u0131l\u0131r (Elman Fattah, Nov 2025).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bel\u0259likl\u0259, v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015flar\u0131n siyas\u0259t\u0259 dair s\u0259rb\u0259st davran\u0131\u015f sah\u0259si s\u0131f\u0131rlan\u0131r v\u0259 insanlar h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t ed\u0259rk\u0259n \u201cg\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u0259z mane\u0259l\u0259r\u201dl\u0259 toqqu\u015faraq \u00f6zl\u0259rini h\u0259bsxanalarda tap\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ancaq bu s\u0259rtl\u0259\u015fm\u0259 n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r sistemli olsa da, problemi h\u0259ll etmir. Repressiya yaln\u0131z b\u00f6hran\u0131 yubatma\u011fa qadirdir, \u00e7\u00fcnki b\u00f6hran\u0131n m\u0259nb\u0259yi n\u0259 sabitliyin pozulmas\u0131d\u0131r, n\u0259 d\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik riskl\u0259ri. B\u00f6hran\u0131n m\u0259nb\u0259yi<strong>&nbsp;idar\u0259etm\u0259nin t\u00fck\u0259nm\u0259sidir<\/strong>. H\u0259r \u015feyi qada\u011fan etm\u0259k t\u0259n\u0259zz\u00fcl\u00fc dayand\u0131rm\u0131r, sad\u0259c\u0259 onun gedi\u015f trayektoriyas\u0131n\u0131 d\u0259yi\u015fir: sosial naraz\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bo\u011fur, lakin struktur z\u0259iflikl\u0259ri daha da a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r v\u0259 sistemin kritik n\u00f6qt\u0259y\u0259 daha tez, daha \u0259lveri\u015fsiz \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259rl\u0259 \u00e7atmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Sistemin t\u00fck\u0259nm\u0259si<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Avtoritar rejiml\u0259rd\u0259 informasiya ax\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259bi\u0259ti etibaril\u0259 t\u0259hrif edilmi\u015f olur: yuxar\u0131ya yaln\u0131z \u201cyax\u015f\u0131 x\u0259b\u0259rl\u0259r\u201d \u00e7atd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r, pis x\u0259b\u0259rl\u0259r is\u0259 m\u00fcxt\u0259lif filtr mexanizml\u0259ri vasit\u0259sil\u0259 yum\u015fald\u0131l\u0131r. Bu da r\u0259hb\u0259rliyi real v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259n uzaqla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r v\u0259 q\u0259rarlar\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f t\u0259s\u0259vv\u00fcr \u0259sas\u0131nda verilm\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b olur. Alternativ ekspertiza v\u0259 ya m\u00fcst\u0259qil diaqnostika institutu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn sistem \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259k imkan\u0131n\u0131 itirir. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 b\u00f6hran\u0131n ilkin siqnallar\u0131 h\u0259r hans\u0131 t\u0259dbir\u0259 m\u0259ruz qalmadan d\u0259rinl\u0259\u015fm\u0259y\u0259 davam edir (Jared Diamond, 2005).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Neft bumu ill\u0259rind\u0259 dollar ax\u0131n\u0131 idar\u0259etm\u0259d\u0259ki s\u0259ri\u015ft\u0259sizliyi gizl\u0259d\u0259n yum\u015faq yast\u0131q rolunu oynaya bilirdi. S\u0259hv q\u0259rarlar pul il\u0259 d\u00fcz\u0259ldilirdi, qeyri-effektiv layih\u0259l\u0259r \u0259lav\u0259 maliyy\u0259 il\u0259 kompensasiya olunurdu, aparat\u0131n bo\u015fluqlar\u0131 sosial paketl\u0259rl\u0259 \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fcrd\u00fc. Postneft d\u00f6vr\u00fcnd\u0259 is\u0259 bu imkan yoxdur \u2013 s\u0259hvl\u0259ri d\u00fcz\u0259ltm\u0259y\u0259 pul yoxdur!&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0KHAR Center-in\u00a0material\u0131 Giri\u015f Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131 2027-2035-ci ill\u0259r aras\u0131nda d\u0259rin b\u00f6hran g\u00f6zl\u0259yir. &#8230; <\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more-container\"><a title=\"Postneft d\u00f6vr\u00fc kabusu\" class=\"read-more button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/postneft-dovru-kabusu\/#more-339163\" aria-label=\"Read more about Postneft d\u00f6vr\u00fc kabusu\">Davam\u0131<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":321314,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_sitemap_exclude":false,"_sitemap_priority":"","_sitemap_frequency":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[51,56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-339163","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analitika","category-xeberler","infinite-scroll-item","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Postneft d\u00f6vr\u00fc kabusu - MEYDAN.TV<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/postneft-dovru-kabusu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"az_AZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Postneft d\u00f6vr\u00fc kabusu - MEYDAN.TV\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00a0KHAR Center-in\u00a0material\u0131 Giri\u015f Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131 2027-2035-ci ill\u0259r aras\u0131nda d\u0259rin b\u00f6hran g\u00f6zl\u0259yir. ... 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