{"id":227062,"date":"2021-11-23T12:18:24","date_gmt":"2021-11-23T08:18:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/?p=227062"},"modified":"2021-11-23T12:18:26","modified_gmt":"2021-11-23T08:18:26","slug":"bitcoin-nece-hereket-edecek-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/bitcoin-nece-hereket-edecek-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin nec\u0259 h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t ed\u0259c\u0259k?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

II hiss\u0259<\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u0259lirlilik v\u0259 volatillik proqnozu<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130ndi yenid\u0259n bu 2-ci hiss\u0259d\u0259 b\u0259zi meyarlarla bir \u00e7ox model aras\u0131ndan model se\u00e7m\u0259 oyununday\u0131q. B\u00fct\u00fcn modell\u0259ri bir m\u0259qal\u0259d\u0259 s\u0131namaq v\u0259 se\u00e7m\u0259k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn deyil, ona g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 yaz\u0131n\u0131n dig\u0259r hiss\u0259l\u0259ri d\u0259 olacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu yaz\u0131da is\u0259potensial modell\u0259rin \u0259sas v\u0259 vacib hiss\u0259l\u0259rini t\u0259qdim ed\u0259c\u0259yik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u0259r \u015feyd\u0259n \u00f6nc\u0259 onu bilm\u0259liyik ki, BTC-in qiym\u0259ti v\u0259 g\u0259liri hans\u0131 statistik proses\u0259 uy\u011fun g\u0259lir. Bu analiz birba\u015fa qiym\u0259t proqnozu v\u0259 g\u0259lirlilik prosesi olaraq volatillik proqnozu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn istifad\u0259 edil\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131n ki, bu hiss\u0259d\u0259 biz qiym\u0259t v\u0259 g\u0259lir proqnozundan \u00e7ox volatilliyin daha yax\u0131ndan qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259sin\u0259 diqq\u0259t yetir\u0259c\u0259yik. \u00c7\u00fcnki aktivin qiym\u0259tinin v\u0259 g\u0259lirliliyinin \u015f\u0259rti volatilliyi q\u0259d\u0259r d\u0259qiq proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131la bilm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259yi stiliz\u0259 olunmu\u015f bir faktd\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Foto: Coinzade<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, \u015f\u0259rti dispersiya qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si biz\u0259 g\u0259lirl\u0259rin paylanmas\u0131 haqq\u0131nda m\u0259lumat verir ki, bu da kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r maraql\u0131d\u0131r. \u015e\u0259rti d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyi bir add\u0131m qabaq qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirdikd\u0259n sonra, \u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 v\u0259 \u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k g\u0259lirin olaca\u011f\u0131na dair yax\u015f\u0131 bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcy\u0259 sahibik v\u0259 \u201cstop-buy\u201d, \u201cstop-sell\u201d v\u0259 ya dig\u0259r ticar\u0259t strategiyalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 yax\u015f\u0131 qura bil\u0259rik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu yaz\u0131da yaln\u0131z q\u0131sa, y\u0259ni bir ne\u00e7\u0259 d\u0259qiq\u0259lik informasiyalardan, sonrak\u0131 hiss\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259, d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nlik proqnozu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn g\u00fcnd\u0259lik daxil olmaqla, dig\u0259r m\u0259lumat n\u00f6vl\u0259rind\u0259n istifad\u0259 ed\u0259c\u0259yik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GARCH \u00e7\u0259r\u00e7iv\u0259sinin banklarda risk analizind\u0259 geni\u015f istifad\u0259 edildiyini unutmay\u0131n. Ona g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 ilk n\u00f6vb\u0259d\u0259 m\u0259lumatlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yoxlayaq. T\u0259hlill\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259sas\u0259n \u201cR\u201d proqramla\u015fd\u0131rma dilind\u0259n v\u0259 \u201cEviews\u201d statistik paketind\u0259n istifad\u0259 ed\u0259c\u0259yik. Kodlar is\u0259 ist\u0259k \u0259sas\u0131nda veril\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yuxar\u0131dak\u0131 \u201cEviews\u201d \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f\u0131, 2021-ci ilin yanvar ay\u0131ndan etibar\u0259n 15 g\u00fcnl\u00fck (d\u0259qiq\u0259lik) m\u0259lumatlar\u0131 v\u0259 kernel s\u0131xl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir.
M\u0259lumatlar olduqca z\u0259ngin olan 20154 m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259y\u0259 malikdir. Qrafik bir n\u00f6v t\u0259sad\u00fcfi trendi (y\u0259ni vahid k\u00f6k) g\u00f6st\u0259rir. G\u0259lin yoxlayaq:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yuxar\u0131dak\u0131 test BTC qiym\u0259t m\u0259lumatlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n vahid bir k\u00f6k\u0259 sahib oldu\u011funu g\u00f6st\u0259rir. H\u0259m R, h\u0259m d\u0259 \u201cEviews\u201d d\u0259n al\u0131nan PP (vahid k\u00f6k testi) v\u0259 KPSS (stasionarl\u0131q testi) testl\u0259ri eyni n\u0259tic\u0259ni g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Bel\u0259likl\u0259, qiym\u0259tin \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rmaq bir n\u00f6v faydas\u0131zd\u0131r, \u00e7\u00fcnki vahid k\u00f6k qiym\u0259tin proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131la bilm\u0259y\u0259n t\u0259sad\u00fcfi bir tendensiyaya sahib olmas\u0131 dem\u0259kdir. G\u0259lirl\u0259rin qurulu\u015funa ke\u00e7\u0259k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

G\u0259lir datas\u0131 v\u0259 onun kernel s\u0131xl\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u0259zi s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131\u015flarla standart normal paylanmaya b\u0259nz\u0259yir, lakin g\u0259lin onun normall\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 stasionarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131nayaq. Qrafik h\u0259m\u00e7inin bir n\u00f6v d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nlik klasterl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si g\u00f6st\u0259rir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Testl\u0259r g\u0259lirl\u0259rin stasionar oldu\u011funu, lakin normal paylanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir. G\u0259lirl\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcxt\u0259lif paylanma f\u0259rziyy\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259n istifad\u0259 ed\u0259 bildiyimiz \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyi t\u0259xmin ed\u0259rk\u0259n biz\u0259 yax\u015f\u0131 fikir verir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Normal \u0259v\u0259zin\u0259 Student-in t-paylanmas\u0131ndan istifad\u0259 ets\u0259k, BTC qiym\u0259t davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259klif etdiyi kimi, m\u0259lumatlarda art\u0131m v\u0259 eni\u015fl\u0259rin daha riskli b\u00f6y\u00fck d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259rini g\u00f6zl\u0259y\u0259rik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

R – g\u0259lir m\u0259lumatlar\u0131n\u0131n ARMA (0,3) prosesini (y\u0259ni MA (3)) q\u0259bul edir, lakin Eviews, g\u0259lir modelinin ARMA (4,4) prosesi ola bil\u0259c\u0259yini t\u0259klif edir. M\u0259n MA(3) prosesi il\u0259 ged\u0259rdim, \u00e7\u00fcnki o, daha sad\u0259dir v\u0259 g\u0259lirl\u0259rin t\u0259sad\u00fcfiliyini yax\u015f\u0131 t\u0259svir edir. G\u0259lirl\u0259ri proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rmaq \u0259v\u0259zin\u0259, daha maraql\u0131 v\u0259 faydal\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn birba\u015fa d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nlik modell\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259sin\u0259 ke\u00e7irik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Engle (1982), \u015f\u0259rtsiz v\u0259 \u015f\u0259rti varyans aras\u0131ndak\u0131 f\u0259rqi tan\u0131yan v\u0259 \u0259vv\u0259lki d\u00f6vrl\u0259rin s\u0259hv \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259rinin bir funksiyas\u0131 olaraq \u015f\u0259rtli varyans\u0131n zamanla d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259sin\u0259 imkan ver\u0259n Nobel m\u00fckafatl\u0131 Avtoregressiv \u015e\u0259rti Heteroskedastiklik (ARCH) modelini haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Bu texnika volatillik \u00e7oxluqlar\u0131n\u0131 modell\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259k qabiliyy\u0259tin\u0259 malikdir, lakin nisb\u0259t\u0259n uzun bir gecikm\u0259 qurulu\u015funa malik bir model t\u0259l\u0259b edir ki, bu da qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259ni \u00e7\u0259tinl\u0259\u015fdirir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da n\u0259z\u0259riyy\u0259nin formala\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 v\u0259 stiliz\u0259 edilmi\u015f faktlar verilmi\u015fdir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Qeyd ed\u0259k ki, MA (3) prosesi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 x\u0259ta meyarlar\u0131na cavab verir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

R[t] = mu + e[t]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

e[t] = s[t]*z[t].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Bu i\u015fi asanla\u015fd\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Bollerslev (1986) qeyri-x\u0259tti m\u0259hdudiyy\u0259tl\u0259r qoyaraq parametrl\u0259rin say\u0131n\u0131 azaltma\u011fa imkan ver\u0259n GARCH modelini t\u0259klif etdi. GARCH modeli qeyd-\u015f\u0259rtsiz d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyi proqnozla\u015fd\u0131ra bil\u0259r v\u0259 daha az parametr t\u0259l\u0259b edir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GARCH modelind\u0259 \u0259n son m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259l\u0259r proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lan d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliy\u0259 daha \u00e7ox t\u0259sir edir:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kvadrat g\u0259lirlilik seriyas\u0131n\u0131n qrafiki v\u0259 korreloqramlar\u0131 \u015f\u0259rti dispersiyalar\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ist\u0259diyimiz avtokorrelyasiyan\u0131 t\u0259klif edir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diqq\u0259t yetirin ki, biz yaln\u0131z sad\u0259 GARCH (1,1) t\u0259rtib etmi\u015fik, lakin bu yaz\u0131n\u0131n \u0259sas m\u0259qs\u0259di olan \u015f\u0259rti d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nlik hesablamalar\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn q\u0259d\u0259r f\u0259rqli istifad\u0259 ed\u0259c\u0259yik v\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259 ed\u0259c\u0259yik. \u00dcst\u0259lik, BTC qiym\u0259t davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 daha yax\u015f\u0131 t\u0259svir etdiyimizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fcz x\u0259ta strukturu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn f\u0259rqli paylamalar se\u00e7\u0259c\u0259yik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131n ki, maliyy\u0259 institutlar\u0131nda risk t\u0259hlili (VaR) \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn d\u0259 GARCH \u00e7\u0259r\u00e7iv\u0259sind\u0259n istifad\u0259 ed\u0259 bil\u0259rik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GARCH tipli modell\u0259rin nec\u0259 ola bil\u0259c\u0259yini art\u0131q ba\u015fa d\u00fc\u015fd\u00fcy\u00fcn\u00fcz\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr\u0259m. Bel\u0259likl\u0259, \u00f6yr\u0259nm\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259sinin intensivliyini art\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn maraql\u0131 olanlar\u0131 se\u00e7\u0259c\u0259y\u0259m v\u0259 \u00fcmumil\u0259\u015fdir\u0259c\u0259y\u0259m. \u018fvv\u0259lc\u0259 Akaike \u0130nformasiya Kriteriyalar\u0131, Bayes \u0130nformasiya Kriteriyalar\u0131 v\u0259 s. kimi modell\u0259rin m\u0259lumat meyarlar\u0131na baxaca\u011fam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00fcstur a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dad\u0131r:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fcy\u00fc kimi, funksiya h\u0259ddind\u0259n art\u0131q parametrl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn c\u0259zaland\u0131r\u0131r. \u00dcst\u0259lik, log ehtimal funksiyas\u0131 il\u0259 m\u0259nfi bir \u0259laq\u0259d\u0259dir, bu da d\u0259y\u0259rin n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r ki\u00e7ik olarsa modelin daha yax\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6st\u0259rir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kriteriyalar modeld\u0259 m\u0259lumat itkisi d\u0259 ola bil\u0259r. Modell\u0259rin is\u0259 nec\u0259 davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u0259k:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yuxar\u0131da g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fck ki, m\u0259lumat meyarlar\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259 \u0259n yax\u015f\u0131 model Student t paylanmas\u0131 il\u0259 TGARCH-dir. H\u0259min modeli daha yax\u0131ndan n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259n ke\u00e7ir\u0259k: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yuxar\u0131dak\u0131 diaqramdan ayd\u0131n olur ki, limitl\u0259rimiz dataya uy\u011fun qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilmi\u015fdir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yuxar\u0131dak\u0131 qrafik t\u0259xmin edil\u0259n d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nlikl\u0259ri v\u0259 onlar\u0131n geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f analoqlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Qrafik\u0259 baxanda x\u00fcsusi bir problem olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u0259 bil\u0259rik. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yuxar\u0131dak\u0131 qrafikl\u0259r\u0259 baxd\u0131qda bel\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259y\u0259 g\u0259l\u0259 bil\u0259rik ki, seriyalar g\u00fccl\u00fc avtokorrelyasiyaya malik deyil, lakin kvadrat seriyalar g\u00fccl\u00fc yadda\u015f x\u00fcsusiyy\u0259tl\u0259ri n\u00fcmayi\u015f etdirir. Bu, variasiyalarda avtokorrelyasiya strukturunu t\u0259xmin etdiyimiz \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn vacibdir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

X\u0259talar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u201cStudent t\u201d paylanmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcman etdiyimiz kimi, tam uy\u011funluq g\u00f6zl\u0259mirik. Yuxar\u0131dak\u0131 qrafik g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nlik modell\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 he\u00e7 bir narahatl\u0131q yoxdur. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da QQ-s\u00fcjeti il\u0259, y\u0259ni normall\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fqa bir \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 yoxlay\u0131n. G\u00f6zl\u0259diyimiz yaln\u0131z b\u0259zi quyruq d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259ri f\u0259rql\u0259nir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yuxar\u0131da \u201cX\u0259b\u0259r t\u0259sir \u0259yrisi\u201d qrafiki var, y\u0259ni d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyin (riskin) \u015foklara (qaytarmalara) nec\u0259 reaksiya verdiyini g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fck. G\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fcy\u00fc kimi, m\u0259nfi d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259r riski daha \u00e7ox t\u0259sir edir v\u0259 bu, TGARCH mexanizmi alt\u0131nda olduqca intuitivdir.

\u0130stinadlar
<\/strong>
Bollerslev, Tim. 1986. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics 31: 307\u201327

Engle, Robert F. 1982. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 50: 987\u20131007. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

II hiss\u0259 G\u0259lirlilik v\u0259 volatillik proqnozu \u0130ndi yenid\u0259n bu 2-ci … <\/p>\n

Davam\u0131<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":211419,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_sitemap_exclude":false,"_sitemap_priority":"","_sitemap_frequency":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-227062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-menim-fikrimce","infinite-scroll-item","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin nec\u0259 h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t ed\u0259c\u0259k? - MEYDAN.TV<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/bitcoin-nece-hereket-edecek-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"az_AZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin nec\u0259 h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t ed\u0259c\u0259k? - MEYDAN.TV\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"II hiss\u0259 G\u0259lirlilik v\u0259 volatillik proqnozu \u0130ndi yenid\u0259n bu 2-ci ... 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