{"id":225816,"date":"2021-11-11T20:18:41","date_gmt":"2021-11-11T16:18:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/?p=225816"},"modified":"2021-11-11T20:18:42","modified_gmt":"2021-11-11T16:18:42","slug":"bitcoin-nece-hereket-edecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/bitcoin-nece-hereket-edecek\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin nec\u0259 h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t ed\u0259c\u0259k?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u018fd\u0259biyyat x\u00fclas\u0259si v\u0259 datalar\u0131n t\u0259sviri<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu yaz\u0131da Bitcoinin d\u00fcnya iqtisadiyat\u0131ndak\u0131 rolundan b\u0259hs ed\u0259c\u0259yik. Yaz\u0131 bir ne\u00e7\u0259 hiss\u0259d\u0259n ibar\u0259t olacaq. Bel\u0259 ki, birinci hiss\u0259 – giri\u015f v\u0259 Bitcoin haqq\u0131nda b\u0259zi \u0259d\u0259biyyat ara\u015fd\u0131rmalar\u0131ndan, m\u0259lumat t\u0259svirl\u0259rind\u0259n v\u0259 t\u0259tbiq edil\u0259c\u0259k potensial modell\u0259rd\u0259n ibar\u0259tdir. Dig\u0259r hiss\u0259l\u0259r \u0259sas\u0259n kriptovalyutan\u0131n m\u0259lumat t\u0259hlili, g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin, g\u0259lirl\u0259rin v\u0259 ya d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyin proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 olacaq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Onlayn ticar\u0259t, dem\u0259k olar ki, yaln\u0131z elektron \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015fl\u0259ri emal etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn etibarl\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc t\u0259r\u0259f kimi xidm\u0259t ed\u0259n maliyy\u0259 qurumlar\u0131na g\u00fcv\u0259nm\u0259y\u0259 ba\u015flad\u0131. Sistem \u0259ks\u0259r \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r yax\u015f\u0131 i\u015fl\u0259s\u0259 d\u0259, g\u00fcv\u0259n \u0259sasl\u0131 modelin \u00f6z\u00fcn\u0259m\u0259xsus z\u0259if c\u0259h\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259n \u0259ziyy\u0259t \u00e7\u0259kir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u018fn ciddi z\u0259if t\u0259r\u0259fl\u0259rd\u0259n biri bitkoinl\u0259 apar\u0131lan \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar\u0131n gerid\u00f6nm\u0259zliyinin t\u0259min edilm\u0259sidir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u0259 dem\u0259kdir \u201c\u0259m\u0259liyyat\u0131n gerid\u00f6nm\u0259zliyi?\u201d <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu, h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irilmi\u015f \u0259m\u0259liyyat\u0131n t\u0259xir\u0259 sal\u0131nmas\u0131, yaxud orada h\u0259r hans\u0131 d\u00fcz\u0259li\u015fin apar\u0131lmas\u0131 imkan\u0131n\u0131n m\u00f6vcudlu\u011funu n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutur. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u018fn\u0259n\u0259vi tranzaksiyalarda is\u0259 maliyy\u0259 qurumlar\u0131 m\u00fcbahis\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 vasit\u0259\u00e7ilik etm\u0259kd\u0259n qa\u00e7a bilmirl\u0259r. Vasit\u0259\u00e7ilik x\u0259rcl\u0259ri is\u0259 \u0259m\u0259liyyat x\u0259rcl\u0259rini art\u0131r\u0131r, minimum \u0259m\u0259liyyat h\u0259cmini m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r, h\u0259m\u00e7inin ki\u00e7ik t\u0259sad\u00fcfi \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn imkanlar\u0131 aradan qald\u0131r\u0131r. Bununla bel\u0259, gerid\u00f6nm\u0259z xidm\u0259tl\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn qaytar\u0131la bilm\u0259y\u0259n \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015fl\u0259r\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 daha b\u00f6y\u00fck x\u0259rc yaran\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gerid\u00f6mm\u0259zlik amili is\u0259 ehtimal\u0131 etibar faktorunun \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tini art\u0131r\u0131r. Ticar\u0259t platformalar\u0131 m\u00fc\u015ft\u0259ril\u0259rin\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 ehtiyatl\u0131 olmal\u0131 v\u0259 ehtiyac duymad\u0131qlar\u0131ndan daha \u00e7ox m\u0259lumat \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn onlar\u0131 narahat etm\u0259lidirl\u0259r, \u00e7\u00fcnki d\u0259l\u0259duzlu\u011fun m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n faizi qa\u00e7\u0131lmaz olaraq q\u0259bul edilir. Bu x\u0259rcl\u0259rd\u0259n v\u0259 \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015f qeyri-m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nlikl\u0259rind\u0259n fiziki valyuta istifad\u0259 etm\u0259kl\u0259 \u015f\u0259xs\u0259n qa\u00e7maq olar, lakin etibarl\u0131 t\u0259r\u0259f olmadan rabit\u0259 kanal\u0131 \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259n \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015f etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn he\u00e7 bir mexanizm yoxdur. Ehtiyac duyulan h\u0259r iki t\u0259r\u0259fin etibarl\u0131 bir \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc t\u0259r\u0259f\u0259 ehtiyac olmadan bir-biri il\u0259 birba\u015fa \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar aparmas\u0131na imkan ver\u0259n etibar yerin\u0259 kriptoqrafik s\u00fcbuta \u0259saslanan elektron \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015f sistemidir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geri hesablamaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn praktik olmayan \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 f\u0131r\u0131ldaq\u00e7\u0131l\u0131qdan qoruyacaq v\u0259 al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 qorumaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn adi \u0259man\u0259t mexanizml\u0259ri asanl\u0131qla t\u0259tbiq oluna bil\u0259r (Sato\u015fi Nakamoto 2008).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00fcasir iqtisadiyyat\u0131m\u0131z \u0259sas\u0259n r\u0259q\u0259msal \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015f vasit\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 \u0259saslan\u0131r. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, e-ticar\u0259t \u015f\u0259klind\u0259 ticar\u0259t r\u0259q\u0259msal tokenl\u0259rin istifad\u0259sini t\u0259l\u0259b edir. R\u0259q\u0259msal valyuta sistemind\u0259 \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015f vasit\u0259si, sad\u0259c\u0259, bir bitdir. Bu, ba\u015fqa bir problem yarad\u0131r, \u00e7\u00fcnki dig\u0259r r\u0259q\u0259msal qeydl\u0259r kimi bu bit x\u0259tl\u0259ri asanl\u0131qla kopyalana v\u0259 \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015f \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yenid\u0259n istifad\u0259 edil\u0259 bil\u0259r. \u018fslind\u0259, r\u0259q\u0259msal token iki d\u0259f\u0259 istifad\u0259 edil\u0259r\u0259k saxta edil\u0259 bil\u0259r ki, bu da s\u00f6zd\u0259 ikiqat x\u0259rc problemidir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u018fn\u0259n\u0259vi olaraq, bu problem, m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259\u015fdirilmi\u015f bir m\u00fchasibat kitab\u0131n\u0131 idar\u0259 ed\u0259n v\u0259 al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n v\u0259 sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n hesablar\u0131n\u0131 kreditl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259k v\u0259 debet etm\u0259kl\u0259 qal\u0131qlar\u0131 k\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcr\u0259n etibarl\u0131 bir \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc t\u0259r\u0259f\u0259 g\u00fcv\u0259nm\u0259kl\u0259 h\u0259ll edilir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc t\u0259r\u0259f tez-tez r\u0259q\u0259msal valyutan\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn emitentidir, bunun bir g\u00f6rk\u0259mli n\u00fcmun\u0259si PayPald\u0131r v\u0259 valyutan\u0131n d\u0259y\u0259ri istifad\u0259\u00e7il\u0259rin ikiqat x\u0259rcl\u0259m\u0259ni qada\u011fan etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc t\u0259r\u0259f\u0259 etibar etm\u0259sind\u0259n qaynaqlan\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin kimi kriptovalyutalar bir add\u0131m daha ir\u0259li gedir v\u0259 etibarl\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc t\u0259r\u0259f\u0259 olan ehtiyac\u0131 aradan qald\u0131r\u0131r. Bunun \u0259v\u0259zin\u0259, qorumaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259mi\u015f (b\u0259lk\u0259 d\u0259, anonim) t\u0259sdiql\u0259yicil\u0259r \u015f\u0259b\u0259k\u0259sin\u0259 g\u00fcv\u0259nirl\u0259r. Bu, istifad\u0259\u00e7il\u0259rin qal\u0131qlar\u0131 ala v\u0259 sahib olduqlar\u0131na \u0259min ola bilm\u0259l\u0259ri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn do\u011frulay\u0131c\u0131lar aras\u0131nda \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar\u0131n d\u00fczg\u00fcn qeydiyyat\u0131 haqq\u0131nda fikir birliyinin saxlan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 z\u0259ruri edir. Ancaq bel\u0259 bir fikir birliyi, n\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 istifad\u0259\u00e7il\u0259rin valyutan\u0131 iki d\u0259f\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259m\u0259m\u0259sini v\u0259 istifad\u0259\u00e7il\u0259rin m\u00fchasibat kitab\u0131n\u0131 d\u0259qiq bir \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 yenil\u0259m\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn do\u011frulay\u0131c\u0131lara etibar etm\u0259l\u0259rini t\u0259l\u0259b edir…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Bitcoin\"
Source: Quoteinspector.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

B\u0259s Bitcoin kimi kriptovalyutalar bu probleml\u0259rin \u00f6hd\u0259sind\u0259n nec\u0259 g\u0259lir?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Valyutaya g\u00fcv\u0259n \u0259m\u0259liyyat tarixl\u0259rinin qeydinin paylanm\u0131\u015f yoxlan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, yenil\u0259nm\u0259sini v\u0259 saxlanmas\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259min ed\u0259n bir blockchain\u0259 \u0259saslan\u0131r. Bu bir blockchain yaratmaqla edilir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Blok kriptovalyuta istifad\u0259\u00e7il\u0259ri aras\u0131nda apar\u0131lan bir \u0259m\u0259liyyatd\u0131r. Bel\u0259 ki, bunlardan bir z\u0259ncir yarad\u0131l\u0131r v\u0259 istifad\u0259\u00e7il\u0259r\u0259 m\u0259xsus olan qal\u0131qlar\u0131n v\u0259 ya valyutan\u0131n miqdar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131q \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 yoxlaya bil\u0259c\u0259yi bir kitab yaratma\u011fa imkan ver\u0259n ke\u00e7mi\u015f \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar\u0131n tarixini ehtiva edir. Bel\u0259likl\u0259, bir blockchain ke\u00e7mi\u015fd\u0259ki b\u00fct\u00fcn \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar\u0131n qeyd kitab\u0131n\u0131 ehtiva ed\u0259n bir kitab kimidir v\u0259 bir blok b\u00fct\u00fcn cari \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar\u0131 qeyd ed\u0259n yeni bir s\u0259hif\u0259dir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2017-ci ilin yanvar-dekabr aylar\u0131 aras\u0131nda Bitcoin 1270% artd\u0131 v\u0259 kriptovalyutan\u0131n \u00fcmumi ticar\u0259t h\u0259cmi g\u00fcnd\u0259 5 milyard AB\u015e dollar\u0131n\u0131 ke\u00e7di. \u018fsas mediadan, t\u0259nziml\u0259yicil\u0259rd\u0259n, ictimai v\u0259 maliyy\u0259 bazarlar\u0131ndan maraq o q\u0259d\u0259r s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259ndi ki, b\u0259zil\u0259ri bu d\u00f6vr\u00fc Bitcoinin “IPO an\u0131” adland\u0131r\u0131rlar. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

2017-ci il \u0259rzind\u0259 Bitcoin, institusional pul, hedcinq fondlar\u0131 v\u0259 ictimai fondlardan daha \u00e7ox diqq\u0259t \u00e7\u0259kdi. M\u00fcv\u0259ff\u0259qiyy\u0259ti is\u0259 Bitcoin t\u00f6r\u0259m\u0259l\u0259rinin t\u0259sdiql\u0259nm\u0259si v\u0259 t\u0259tbiqi il\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ndi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u0259zi m\u00fc\u0259llifl\u0259r Bitcoini bir valyuta, s\u0259hm v\u0259 ya aktiv olaraq t\u0259svir etm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fd\u0131lar. Yermack (2013), Bitcoinin bir valyutadan \u00e7ox spekulyativ bir d\u0259y\u0259r ma\u011fazas\u0131na b\u0259nz\u0259diyini iddia edir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dwyer (2015), Bitcoini \u015f\u0259xsi balansda ticar\u0259t etm\u0259k v\u0259 saxlamaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn istifad\u0259 edil\u0259 bil\u0259n bir elektron valyuta olaraq t\u0259svir edir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dwyerin iddias\u0131 Bitcoinin dig\u0259r \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015f texnologiyalar\u0131 il\u0259 m\u00fcbadil\u0259 vasit\u0259si olaraq i\u015fl\u0259y\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259yini s\u00f6yl\u0259y\u0259n Polasik (2015) t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259nir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Getdikc\u0259 daha \u00e7ox t\u0259dqiqat\u00e7\u0131 Bitcoinin \u0259sas d\u0259y\u0259rinin m\u00f6vcudlu\u011funa diqq\u0259t yetirir v\u0259 b\u0259zil\u0259ri bunun k\u00f6p\u00fck olub-olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6yr\u0259nirl\u0259r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Garcia (2014) Bitcoinin m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si il\u0259 \u0259sas d\u0259y\u0259ri aras\u0131ndak\u0131 f\u0259rq\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 Bitcoinin maliyy\u0259 balonu oldu\u011funu tapd\u0131. Eynil\u0259 Hayes (2015, 2018), Bitcoinin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn istehsal modelinin x\u00fcsusi bir d\u0259y\u0259rini t\u0259klif etdi. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, Cheah and Fry (2015) Bitcoinin spekulyativ bir k\u00f6p\u00fck oldu\u011funu v\u0259 Bitcoinin \u0259sas d\u0259y\u0259rinin s\u0131f\u0131r oldu\u011fu q\u0259na\u0259tin\u0259 g\u0259lir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u018fvv\u0259lki ara\u015fd\u0131rmalardan f\u0259rqli olaraq Corbet (2017) Bitcoind\u0259 k\u00f6p\u00fck oldu\u011funa dair a\u00e7\u0131q bir d\u0259lil olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tapd\u0131. Bu m\u00fc\u0259llifl\u0259r Bitcoinin bir k\u00f6p\u00fck olub-olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fczakir\u0259 ed\u0259rk\u0259n Bouri (2017) Bitcoinin t\u0259sirli bir diversifikator olaraq istifad\u0259 edil\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259yini v\u0259 b\u0259zi d\u00f6vrl\u0259rd\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259siz s\u0131\u011f\u0131nacaq v\u0259 hedcinq x\u00fcsusiyy\u0259tl\u0259ri g\u00f6st\u0259rdiyini tapd\u0131. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Coinzade\"
Source: Coinzade<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

B\u0259zi ara\u015fd\u0131rmalar Bitcoinin qiym\u0259tin\u0259 t\u0259sir ed\u0259n faktorlar\u0131n t\u0259yin edilm\u0259sin\u0259 h\u0259sr edilmi\u015fdi. Bouoiour v\u0259 Selmi (2015) uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli \u0259saslar\u0131n Bitcoin qiym\u0259t d\u0259yi\u015fikliyin\u0259 b\u00f6y\u00fck t\u00f6hf\u0259 ver\u0259c\u0259yini iddia edirl\u0259r. Dig\u0259rl\u0259ri aras\u0131nda Bitcoin qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin m\u00fcsb\u0259t bir s\u0259b\u0259bi olaraq texniki faktorlar\u0131 da tapd\u0131lar. X\u00fcsusil\u0259, Georgoula (2015) v\u0259 Hayes (2015) texniki faktor Hashrate-i \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli bir m\u00fcsb\u0259t qiym\u0259t s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcs\u00fc hesab etdi. Bouoiour and Selmi (2016), Garcia (2014), Kristoufek (2015), Hashrate-i \u00f6z modell\u0259rind\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259n olaraq istifad\u0259 etdil\u0259r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dig\u0259r aliml\u0259r d\u0259 m\u00fcbadil\u0259 ticar\u0259ti, s\u0259hm bazar\u0131 indeksl\u0259ri, valyuta m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259l\u0259ri, \u0259mt\u0259\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri v\u0259 \u0259m\u0259liyyat h\u0259cmi kimi \u0259sas faktorlar\u0131n \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tini m\u00fcdafi\u0259 edirl\u0259r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bouoiour v\u0259 Selmid\u0259n (2015) f\u0259rqli olaraq, Polasik (2015) \u0259m\u0259liyyat h\u0259cminin artmas\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin y\u00fcks\u0259lm\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 qlobal iqtisadi faktorlar\u0131n \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli bir s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc kimi g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u0259diyini bildirir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ciaian (2016), t\u0259l\u0259b v\u0259 t\u0259klif faktorlar\u0131n\u0131n qiym\u0259t\u0259 g\u00fccl\u00fc t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rdiyini v\u0259 standart iqtisadi valyuta modell\u0259rinin qiym\u0259t dal\u011falanmalar\u0131n\u0131 qism\u0259n izah ed\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259yini t\u0259sbit etdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kristoufek (2013, 2015) Bitcoind\u0259 onlayn axtar\u0131\u015flar\u0131n tezliyini t\u0259hlil etdi, maraq v\u0259 populyarl\u0131q \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yax\u015f\u0131 bir v\u0259kil oldu\u011funu tapd\u0131 v\u0259 Bitcoin qiym\u0259ti il\u0259 onlayn populyarl\u0131q aras\u0131ndak\u0131 \u0259laq\u0259nin ikit\u0259r\u0259fli oldu\u011funu k\u0259\u015ff etdi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ciaian (2016), Vikipediya axtar\u0131\u015flar\u0131 il\u0259 Bitcoin aras\u0131nda m\u00fcsb\u0259t bir \u0259laq\u0259 tapd\u0131. Dig\u0259rl\u0259ri, Kristoufek il\u0259 eyni istiqam\u0259td\u0259 m\u00fcbahis\u0259 edirl\u0259r ki, qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t etm\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b olan ilk n\u00f6vb\u0259d\u0259 populyarl\u0131q v\u0259 investor c\u0259lbediciliyidir(Bouoiyour 2016).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Volatilliy\u0259 g\u0259ldikd\u0259, homoskedastikliyi yoxlamaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn reqressiyan\u0131n qeyd-\u015f\u0259rtsiz d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyini yoxlay\u0131r\u0131q. Bu f\u0259rziyy\u0259ni pozmaq, Gauss -Markov teoreminin m\u00f6vcud olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 OLS qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndiricil\u0259rinin BLUE olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirir. \u015e\u0259rtsiz d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nlik sabit olsa da, zamanla \u015f\u0259rtli varyans sabit olmaya bil\u0259r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Engle (1982), \u015f\u0259rtsiz v\u0259 \u015f\u0259rti varyans aras\u0131ndak\u0131 f\u0259rqi tan\u0131yan v\u0259 \u0259vv\u0259lki d\u00f6vrl\u0259rin s\u0259hv \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259rinin bir funksiyas\u0131 olaraq \u015f\u0259rtli varyans\u0131n zamanla d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259sin\u0259 imkan ver\u0259n Avtoreqressiv \u015e\u0259rti Heteroskedastiklik (ARCH) modelini haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Bu texnika volatillik qrupla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259sirini \u0259l\u0259 ke\u00e7irm\u0259k qabiliyy\u0259tin\u0259 malikdir, lakin nisb\u0259t\u0259n uzun bir gecikm\u0259 qurulu\u015funa malik bir model t\u0259l\u0259b edir ki, bu da qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259ni \u00e7\u0259tinl\u0259\u015fdirir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu i\u015fi asanla\u015fd\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Bollerslev (1986) qeyri-x\u0259tti m\u0259hdudiyy\u0259tl\u0259r qoyaraq parametrl\u0259rin say\u0131n\u0131 azaltma\u011fa imkan ver\u0259n GARCH modelini t\u0259klif etdi. GARCH modeli qeyd-\u015f\u0259rtsiz d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyi proqnozla\u015fd\u0131ra bil\u0259r v\u0259 daha az parametr t\u0259l\u0259b edir. GARCH modelind\u0259 \u0259n son m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259l\u0259r proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lan d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliy\u0259 daha \u00e7ox t\u0259sir edir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Datalar\u0131n t\u0259sviri v\u0259 potensial  metodologiyalar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u018flimizd\u0259 alt\u0131 n\u00f6v Bitcoin m\u0259lumat\u0131 var. H\u0259r birinin f\u0259rqli qurulu\u015fu v\u0259 tezliyi m\u00f6vcuddur. Birincisi, 2013-c\u00fc il 1 oktyabrdan 2021-ci  14 iyula q\u0259d\u0259r g\u00fcnd\u0259lik Bitcoin m\u0259lumatlar\u0131d\u0131r. Bu m\u0259lumatda 2843 m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 qeyd olunub. Bu m\u0259lumat d\u0259stind\u0259 a\u00e7\u0131q v\u0259 ba\u011flanan qiym\u0259tl\u0259r, g\u00fcnd\u0259lik y\u00fcks\u0259k v\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259rimiz var. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoinin indiy\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r dem\u0259k olar ki, b\u00fct\u00fcn h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259tl\u0259rini g\u00f6st\u0259rdiyi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bu c\u00fcr m\u0259lumatlara sahib olmaq yax\u015f\u0131d\u0131r. G\u00fcnd\u0259lik a\u00e7\u0131q qiym\u0259t\u0259 daha yax\u0131ndan v\u0259 diqq\u0259tl\u0259 baxaq. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, bu c\u00fcr d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259rin olmas\u0131 faydal\u0131d\u0131r, \u00e7\u00fcnki qiym\u0259tin (v\u0259 ya orta g\u00fcnd\u0259lik qiym\u0259tin) g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259rini t\u0259yin etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259rd\u0259n istifad\u0259 ed\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Specify
Qrafik 1. Tarixi G\u00fcnl\u00fck Bitcoin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Specify
Qrafik 2. Tarixi g\u00fcnl\u00fck Bitcoin g\u0259lirliliyi\u00a0<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Birinci qrafik k\u0259skin azalmalarla y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259n tendensiyan\u0131, ikinci qrafik is\u0259 bir n\u00f6v d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nlik qrupla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Qiym\u0259tl\u0259r ARIMA tipli modell\u0259rl\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndiril\u0259 v\u0259 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131la bil\u0259r v\u0259 GARCH mexanizml\u0259ri vasit\u0259sil\u0259 g\u0259lirl\u0259rin d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyi (riski) proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131la bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minimum<\/td>1st<\/sup> Quantile<\/td>Median<\/td>Mean<\/td>3rd<\/sup> Quantile<\/td>Maximum<\/td><\/tr>
108.6 <\/td>470.2<\/td> 3412.7  <\/td>7105.5  <\/td>  8796.2 <\/td>63562.7<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
C\u0259dv\u0259l 1. G\u00fcnl\u00fck qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin x\u00fclas\u0259si<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0130kinci n\u00f6v m\u0259lumat toplusu,  qeydiyyat tezliyind\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131 olaraq 2021-ci ilin yanvar ay\u0131n\u0131n ilk 15 g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00f6rd m\u0259lumat d\u0259stin\u0259 malikdir: 1 d\u0259qiq\u0259, 5 d\u0259qiq\u0259, 30 d\u0259qiq\u0259, 1 saat. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A\u00e7\u0131q, yax\u0131n, y\u00fcks\u0259k, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin yan\u0131nda ticar\u0259t h\u0259cmi d\u0259 var ki, bu da olduqca proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ola bil\u0259r. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da bu m\u0259lumatlar\u0131n qrafikl\u0259ri v\u0259 x\u00fclas\u0259 statistikas\u0131 verilib. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u0259kana q\u0259na\u0259t etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yaln\u0131z d\u0259qiq\u0259lik m\u0259lumatlar\u0131n qrafikl\u0259rini g\u00f6st\u0259ririk v\u0259 dig\u0259rl\u0259rini yaln\u0131z \u0259lav\u0259y\u0259 ke\u00e7iririk, \u00e7\u00fcnki onlar yaln\u0131z tezlik f\u0259rqin\u0259 b\u0259nz\u0259yirl\u0259r. Bu m\u0259lumatlar\u0131 1-5 d\u0259qiq\u0259 sonra v\u0259 s. \u0259vv\u0259lc\u0259d\u0259n proqnozla\u015fd\u0131ra bildiyimiz \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tlidir. M\u0259lumat d\u0259stl\u0259ri m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 s\u0131ras\u0131yla 20154, 4033, 673, 337 n\u00f6qt\u0259y\u0259 malikdir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Specify
Qrafik 3.Tarixi d\u0259qiq\u0259lik Bitcoin datas\u0131<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Specify
Qrafik 4.Tarixi d\u0259qiq\u0259lik Bitcoin g\u0259lirlilik datas\u0131<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Minimum<\/td>1st<\/sup> Quantile<\/td>Median<\/td>Mean<\/td>3rd<\/sup> Quantile<\/td>Maximum<\/td><\/tr>
27998<\/td>32672<\/td>34685<\/td>35253<\/td>  38422<\/td>41916<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
C\u0259dv\u0259l 2. D\u0259qiq\u0259lik datan\u0131n x\u00fclas\u0259si\u00a0<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Son m\u0259lumat n\u00f6v\u00fc \u0259n maraql\u0131d\u0131r: Tik datas\u0131. Veril\u0259nl\u0259r mili saniy\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 (Bitcoinin dem\u0259k olar ki, b\u00fct\u00fcn f\u0259aliyy\u0259ti) meydana g\u0259l\u0259n h\u0259r bir \u0259m\u0259liyyat \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn qeydl\u0259r\u0259 malikdir. Bu m\u0259lumatlar h\u0259cm v\u0259 qiym\u0259t d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259rin\u0259 malikdir v\u0259 olduqca z\u0259ngin olan bir g\u00fcnd\u0259 (2021, 4 fevral) 701661 m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259d\u0259n ibar\u0259tdir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Specify
Qrafik 5.\u00a0 Tarixi Bitcoin Tik tatas\u0131<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Specify
Qrafik 5.\u00a0 Tarixi Bitcoin Tik g\u0259lirlilik datas\u0131<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minimum<\/td>1st<\/sup> Quantile<\/td>Median<\/td>Mean<\/td>3rd<\/sup> Quantile<\/td>Maksimum<\/td><\/tr>
36147   <\/td>37152   <\/td>37488   <\/td>37524   <\/td>  37846   <\/td>38769<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>
C\u0259dv\u0259l 3. Tik Datas\u0131 x\u00fclas\u0259si<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tik m\u0259lumatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u0259lirliliyi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn GARCH \u00e7\u0259r\u00e7iv\u0259sind\u0259n daha maraql\u0131 metodologiyas\u0131ndan istifad\u0259 etm\u0259k olar. GARCH-\u0131 s\u0131naya bil\u0259rik, amma m\u0259lumatlar\u0131m\u0131z art\u0131q eyni m\u0259saf\u0259li zaman seriyas\u0131 deyil. Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259tl\u0259rini proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn c\u0259zaland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f v\u0259 \u015f\u0259rti logistika modell\u0259rind\u0259n daha yax\u015f\u0131 istifad\u0259 edirik. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A\u015fa\u011f\u0131dan yuxar\u0131 yana\u015fmadan daha \u00e7ox istifad\u0259 ed\u0259 bil\u0259rik v\u0259 \u00e7oxnominall\u0131 logistik reqressiyalar alt\u0131nda bir \u00e7ox kateqoriyan\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131ra bil\u0259rik. Hesablama g\u00fcc\u00fcm\u00fcz varsa v\u0259 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, 100 kateqoriyan\u0131 t\u0259xmin ed\u0259 bils\u0259k, reqressiya bir millisaniy\u0259nin sonrak\u0131 g\u0259liri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00e7ox maraql\u0131 bir proqnoz ver\u0259c\u0259k. Ba\u015fqa bir metodologiya, valyuta v\u0259 ya s\u0259hm qiym\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259 oldu\u011fu kimi tik m\u0259lumatlar\u0131nda potensial miqyas qanunlar\u0131 tapmaqd\u0131r. Son iki metodologiya alqoritmik ticar\u0259t \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u0259la vasit\u0259 olard\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u0259nb\u0259l\u0259r:<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Bollerslev, Tim. 1986. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics 31: 307\u201327<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
    1. Bouoiyour, Jamal, and Refk Selmi. 2015. What Does Bitcoin Look Like? Annals of Economics and Finance 16: 449\u201392.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
      1. Bouoiyour, Jamal, and Refk Selmi. 2016. Bitcoin: A beginning of a new phase? Economics Bulletin 36: 1430\u201340.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
        1. Bouri, Elie, Peter Moln\u00e1r, Georges Azzi, David Roubaud, and Lars Ivar Hagfors. 2017b. On the hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin: Is it really more than a diversifier? Finance Research Letters 20: 192\u20138. <\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
          1. Cheah, Eng-Tuck, and John Fry. 2015. Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin. Economics Letters 130: 32\u201336.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
            1. Ciaian, Pavel, Miroslava Rajcaniova, and d\u2019Artis Kancs. 2016. The economics of BitCoin price formation. Applied Economics 48: 1799\u2013815. <\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
              1. Corbet, Shaen, Brian Lucey, and Larisa Yarovaya. 2017. Datestamping the Bitcoin and Ethereum bubbles. Finance Research Letters 26: 81\u201388.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                1. Dwyer, Gerald P. 2015. The economics of Bitcoin and similar private digital currencies. Journal of Financial Stability 17: 81\u201391. <\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                  1. Engle, Robert F. 1982. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 50: 987\u20131007.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                    1. Garcia, David, Claudio J. Tessone, Pavlin Mavrodiev, and Nicolas Perony. 2014. The digital traces of bubbles: Feedback cycles between socio-economics signals in the Bitcoin economy. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 11: 1\u201328. <\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                      1. Georgoula, Ifigeneia, Demitrios Pournarakis, Christos Bilanakos, Dionisios Sotiropoulos, and George M. Giaglis. 2015. Using Time-Series and Sentiment Analysis to Detect the Determinants of Bitcoin Prices. Available online: http:\/\/ssrn.com\/abstract=2607167 (accessed on 10 August 2021).<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                        1. Hayes, Adam S. 2015. Cryptocurrency value formation: An empirical study leading to a cost of production model for valuing bitcoin. Telematics and Informatics 34: 1308\u201321.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                          1. Hayes, Adam S. 2018. Bitcoin price and its marginal cost of production: Support for a fundamental value. Applied Economics Letters 5: 1\u20137. <\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                            1. Kristoufek, Ladislav. 2015. What Are the Main Drivers of the Bitcoin Price? Evidence from Wavelet Coherence Analysis. PLoS ONE 10: e0123923.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                              1. Nakamoto, Satoshi. 2008. Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System. Available online: http:\/\/bitcoin.org\/ bitcoin.pdf (accessed on 16 August 2021).<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                                1. Polasik, Michal, Anna Iwona Piotrowska, Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski, Radoslaw Kotkowski, and Geoffrey Lightfoot. 2015. Price Fluctuations and the Use of Bitcoin: An Empirical Inquiry. International Journal of Electronic Commerce 20: 9\u201349. <\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                                  1. Yermack, David. 2013. Is Bitcoin a Real Currency? An economic appraisal. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 19747. Available online: http:\/\/www.nber.org\/papers\/w19747 (accessed on 15 August 2021).<\/li><\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                                    \u018fd\u0259biyyat x\u00fclas\u0259si v\u0259 datalar\u0131n t\u0259sviri Bu yaz\u0131da Bitcoinin d\u00fcnya iqtisadiyat\u0131ndak\u0131 … <\/p>\n

                                    Davam\u0131<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":211419,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_sitemap_exclude":false,"_sitemap_priority":"","_sitemap_frequency":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-225816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-menim-fikrimce","infinite-scroll-item","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin nec\u0259 h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t ed\u0259c\u0259k? - MEYDAN.TV<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/bitcoin-nece-hereket-edecek\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"az_AZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin nec\u0259 h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259t ed\u0259c\u0259k? - MEYDAN.TV\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u018fd\u0259biyyat x\u00fclas\u0259si v\u0259 datalar\u0131n t\u0259sviri Bu yaz\u0131da Bitcoinin d\u00fcnya iqtisadiyat\u0131ndak\u0131 ... 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