{"id":200315,"date":"2020-04-26T13:25:17","date_gmt":"2020-04-26T13:25:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/article\/avropa-ittifaqi-aci-neticelerle-uzlesmemek-ucun-ne-etmelidir\/"},"modified":"2020-04-26T13:25:17","modified_gmt":"2020-04-26T13:25:17","slug":"avropa-ittifaqi-aci-neticelerle-uzlesmemek-ucun-ne-etmelidir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/avropa-ittifaqi-aci-neticelerle-uzlesmemek-ucun-ne-etmelidir\/","title":{"rendered":"Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131 ac\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015fm\u0259m\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259 etm\u0259lidir?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n
\n \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Proqram\u0131n\u0131n n\u00f6vb\u0259ti 10 illikl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 ssenaril\u0259ri
\n <\/i>\n<\/p>\n

\n Ke\u00e7\u0259n ilin may ay\u0131nda Br\u00fcsseld\u0259 6 \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259sinin liderl\u0259ri \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 proqram\u0131n\u0131n 10 illiyini qeyd etdil\u0259r. 2009-cu ild\u0259 Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131n\u0131n \u015f\u0259rq qon\u015fulu\u011funda iqtisadi v\u0259 siyasi inteqrasiyan\u0131 art\u0131raraq, daha t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259siz v\u0259 t\u0259xmin edil\u0259 bil\u0259n qon\u015fuluq yaratmaq ist\u0259yi il\u0259 ba\u015flatd\u0131\u011f\u0131, f\u00fcrs\u0259t kimi g\u00f6rd\u00fcy\u00fc bu t\u0259\u015f\u0259bb\u00fcs son 10 ild\u0259 Rusiya t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n A\u0130-n\u0131n b\u00f6lg\u0259d\u0259ki post-sovet \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri Moskvan\u0131n n\u0259zar\u0259tind\u0259n \u00e7\u0131xarmaq c\u0259hdi v\u0259 ciddi t\u0259hdid kimi q\u0259bul edilmi\u015fdi.\n<\/p>\n

\n Bu on il \u0259rzind\u0259 iqtisadi, siyasi v\u0259 demoqrafik g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259ri bir-birind\u0259n f\u0259rql\u0259n\u0259n Az\u0259rbaycan, Erm\u0259nistan, G\u00fcrc\u00fcstan, Belarusiya, Moldova v\u0259 Ukraynan\u0131n daxil oldu\u011fu \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin Rusiyaya m\u00fcxt\u0259lif yana\u015fmalar\u0131, bir qrup \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131 il\u0259 Assosiyasiya Sazi\u015fi imzalamas\u0131, b\u00f6lg\u0259d\u0259 yeni konfliktl\u0259rin yaranmas\u0131, Avrasiya \u0130ttifaq\u0131 kimi siyasi t\u0259\u015f\u0259bb\u00fcsl\u0259rin ortaya \u00e7\u0131xmas\u0131, n\u00f6vb\u0259ti 10 il \u0259rzind\u0259 Rusiyada v\u0259 Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131nda m\u00fcmk\u00fcn siyasi v\u0259 iqtisadi d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r, \u00c7inin \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 yana\u015fmas\u0131 v\u0259 artan n\u00fcfuzu \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Proqram\u0131n\u0131n n\u00f6vb\u0259ti on ild\u0259ki inki\u015faf ssenaril\u0259ri il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 suallar ortaya \u00e7\u0131xar\u0131b. Visegrad Insight 2019-cu ild\u0259 bir qrup ekspertin t\u00f6hf\u0259si il\u0259
\n
\n \u015eTP-nin n\u00f6vb\u0259ti onillikl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 inki\u015faf ssenaril\u0259rini haz\u0131rlay\u0131b
\n <\/a>
\n .\n<\/p>\n

\n Bu 4 ssenari regionda t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik, enerji t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliyi, iqtisadi, siyasi, demoqrafik d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r, \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131 v\u0259 Rusiyaya m\u00fcnasib\u0259td\u0259 y\u00fcr\u00fctd\u00fcy\u00fc xarici siyas\u0259t v\u0259 dig\u0259r kompleks d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259nl\u0259ri, trendl\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 almaqla, Avropada v\u0259 Rusiyada ba\u015f ver\u0259c\u0259k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r zaman\u0131 hans\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rin do\u011fa bil\u0259c\u0259yinin m\u00fczakir\u0259si m\u0259qs\u0259di il\u0259 haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r.\n<\/p>\n

\n "Praqmatik inteqrasiya" adlanan ilk ssenarid\u0259 h\u0259rhans\u0131 ciddi bir siyasi v\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik d\u0259yi\u015fikliyinin olmayaca\u011f\u0131 t\u0259qdird\u0259, \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin A\u0130 il\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n siyasi assosiyasiya v\u0259 iqtisadi inteqrasiya yolunu tutaca\u011f\u0131 qeyd edilir. A\u0130 il\u0259 Assosiyasiya Sazi\u015fi imzalam\u0131\u015f Ukrayna, Moldova v\u0259 G\u00fcrc\u00fcstan \u00f6z \u0259laq\u0259l\u0259rini daha da d\u0259rinl\u0259\u015fdir\u0259c\u0259k, Az\u0259rbaycan, Erm\u0259nistan v\u0259 Belarus is\u0259 Rusiya il\u0259 diplomatik v\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik maraqlar\u0131n\u0131 tapdamamaq \u015f\u0259rti il\u0259 b\u0259nz\u0259r, praqmatik maraqlar \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 qurulmu\u015f yolu izl\u0259y\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259r. Bu zaman Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131 daha \u00e7ox region \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri il\u0259 s\u0131x iqtisadi v\u0259 ticar\u0259t \u0259laq\u0259l\u0259rini inki\u015faf etdir\u0259c\u0259k, qanunun aliliyi daha \u00e7ox xarici s\u0259rmay\u0259l\u0259rin qorunmas\u0131, m\u00fclkiy\u0259t h\u00fcquqlar\u0131 kimi m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 m\u0259hdudla\u015facaq, v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015f c\u0259miyy\u0259tinin inki\u015faf\u0131n\u0131 lab\u00fcd ed\u0259n d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259rin realla\u015fmas\u0131nda is\u0259 x\u00fcsusi s\u0259yl\u0259r g\u00f6st\u0259rilm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k. Bu ssenarid\u0259 Rusiyan\u0131n da region \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 t\u0259siri daha \u00e7ox b\u0259nz\u0259r iqtisadi v\u0259 ticari stimullar t\u0259qdim etm\u0259kd\u0259n ibar\u0259t olacaq, yaln\u0131z daha d\u0259rin siyasi inteqrasiya yolunu se\u00e7\u0259n \u00f6lk\u0259 olarsa, orada m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n s\u0259rt g\u00fcc n\u00fcmayi\u015fi ola bil\u0259r. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 10 il sonra \u015e\u0259rq\n<\/p>\n

\n T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri m\u0259hdud, lakin m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 inteqrasiyaya nail olacaqlar.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u0130kinci ssenari Rusiya hegemonlu\u011funun qay\u0131d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 qurulub. Q\u0259rbin sanksiyalar\u0131na baxmayaraq, Rusiya \u00f6z iqtisadi v\u0259 h\u0259rbi g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc inki\u015faf etdirir, \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri u\u011frunda h\u0259rhans\u0131 bir g\u0259rginlikd\u0259n istifad\u0259 ed\u0259r\u0259k, yeni bir m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259 alovland\u0131r\u0131r v\u0259 regionun A\u0130 il\u0259 inteqrasiyas\u0131n\u0131 ciddi \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 bloklay\u0131r. Bu ssenariya \u0259sas\u0259n, Rusiya region \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin siyasi elitalar\u0131na maliyy\u0259 imkanlar\u0131 v\u0259 dig\u0259r \u00fcstullarla t\u0259zyiql\u0259r vasit\u0259si il\u0259 onlar\u0131 Rusiyan\u0131n maraqlar\u0131na cavab verm\u0259y\u0259 m\u0259cbur edir. Yekunda Rusiya \u00f6z hegemonlu\u011funu b\u0259rpa edir v\u0259 \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri b\u00f6y\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcd\u0259 Rusiyadan as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 q\u0259bul etm\u0259y\u0259 m\u0259cbur olur.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ssenari Avropan\u0131n Rusiyaya bax\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259si, iqtisadi v\u0259 siyasi g\u0259rginlikl\u0259ri aradan qald\u0131raraq, Avropa il\u0259 Rusiyan\u0131n iqtisadi v\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik maraqlar\u0131n\u0131 birl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259sini ehtiva edir. Bu ssenarid\u0259 \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin daha \u00e7ox Rusiyadan as\u0131l\u0131l\u0131\u011fa qar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6zl\u0259rini qorumaq m\u0259qs\u0259di il\u0259 \u00c7in il\u0259 artan iqtisadi v\u0259 diplomatik \u0259laq\u0259l\u0259rinin Rusiyan\u0131 v\u0259 Avropan\u0131 narahat etm\u0259si, Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131n\u0131n \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri il\u0259 inteqrasiyan\u0131 arxa plana salmas\u0131, Rusiyan\u0131n yaranm\u0131\u015f v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259n istifad\u0259 ed\u0259r\u0259k tam t\u0259siri alt\u0131na salmas\u0131 ba\u015f ver\u0259 bil\u0259r. Bu ssenarinin sonunda art\u0131q 6 \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259ri Avropan\u0131 etibarl\u0131 alternativ kimi g\u00f6rm\u00fcrl\u0259r.\n<\/p>\n

\n D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ssenari getdikc\u0259 z\u0259ifl\u0259y\u0259n v\u0259 cazib\u0259sini itir\u0259n Rusiya v\u0259 \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 daha geni\u015f inteqrasiya v\u0259 A\u0130 \u00fczvl\u00fcy\u00fc imkanlar\u0131 v\u0259d etm\u0259y\u0259n Avropa fonunda \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r daxilind\u0259 v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015f f\u0259all\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, rifah v\u0259 geni\u015fl\u0259nmi\u015f iqtisadi imkanlar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dan yuxar\u0131ya do\u011fru v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015f t\u0259zyiqinin artmas\u0131n\u0131 ehtiva edir. Bu halda \u0130ttifaq\u0131n etiraz\u00e7\u0131lara d\u0259st\u0259yi daha \u00e7ox m\u0259n\u0259vi d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259 m\u0259hdudla\u015f\u0131r. Sovet \u0130ttifaq\u0131 d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u00fcn yeti\u015fdirdiyi liderl\u0259ri \u0259vv\u0259lc\u0259 marginalla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131b, sonra neytalla\u015fd\u0131ran yeni n\u0259sil g\u0259nc liderl\u0259r c\u0259miyy\u0259td\u0259 daha b\u00f6y\u00fck etibar v\u0259 n\u00fcfuz qazan\u0131r, bu legitimlikd\u0259n istifad\u0259 ed\u0259r\u0259k korrupsiya il\u0259 m\u00fcbariz\u0259 apar\u0131r, qanunun aliliyini t\u0259min edir v\u0259 k\u00f6kl\u00fc islahatlar\u0131n \u0259sas\u0131n\u0131 qoyur.\n<\/p>\n

\n \"screenshot_at_apr_25_19-38-40.png\"
\n Scenarios for the Eastern Partnership 2030
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\n G\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fcy\u00fc kimi, bu ssenaril\u0259rd\u0259 Rusiyan\u0131n h\u0259rhans\u0131 formada t\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131q \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 t\u0259sirini art\u0131rmaq imkanlar\u0131 il\u0259 yana\u015f\u0131, Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131n\u0131n da regiona yana\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n daha \u00e7ox texniki, iqtisadi \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131q v\u0259 ticar\u0259t maraqlar\u0131 il\u0259 m\u0259hdudla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir. 2019-cu ilin mart ay\u0131nda Avropa Komissiyas\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131qlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 "2020-ci ild\u0259n sonra \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 siyas\u0259ti" birg\u0259 kommunikasiyas\u0131nda regionun g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yi il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 ciddi siyasi vizyon ortaya qoyulmay\u0131b, siyasi assosiyasiya il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 v\u0259dl\u0259r verilm\u0259yib, \u0259v\u0259zind\u0259, h\u00fcququn aliliyi, s\u00f6z v\u0259 ifad\u0259 azadl\u0131\u011f\u0131, v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015f c\u0259miyy\u0259tinin g\u00fccl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si dig\u0259r texniki m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259r, m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, r\u0259q\u0259msalla\u015fma v\u0259 r\u0259q\u0259msal infrastrukturun yarad\u0131lmas\u0131, ictimai s\u0259hiyy\u0259nin inki\u015faf\u0131, \u0259traf m\u00fchitin qorunmas\u0131 kimi m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 b\u0259rab\u0259r \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 s\u0131ralan\u0131b. Halbuki, \u0259vv\u0259ll\u0259r Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131 il\u0259 \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131q \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Avropa d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259ri \u00f6n \u015f\u0259rt olaraq qoyulurdu. Bu is\u0259 4 ssenarid\u0259n birincisinin, praqmatik inteqrasiyan\u0131n haz\u0131rda \u0259n real ssenari kimi g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fcy\u00fcn\u00fc dem\u0259y\u0259 \u0259sas verir.\n<\/p>\n

\n Lakin dig\u0259r ssenaril\u0259r aras\u0131nda da Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131n\u0131n Rusiya il\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259ri normalla\u015fd\u0131rma c\u0259hdl\u0259ri qar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rini qurban verm\u0259k v\u0259 s\u00f6vd\u0259l\u0259\u015fm\u0259ni bununla tamamlamaq ehtimallar\u0131 da m\u00f6vcuddur ki, bu halda da Assosiyasiya Sazi\u015fi imzalam\u0131\u015f \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 siyasi xaosa, dig\u0259r \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 is\u0259 Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131na inam\u0131n \u00f6lm\u0259sin\u0259 g\u0259tirib \u00e7\u0131xara, avrointeqrasiya t\u0259r\u0259fdar\u0131 siyasi qurumlar\u0131, liderl\u0259ri, v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015f c\u0259miyy\u0259ti t\u0259msil\u00e7il\u0259rini tamam\u0259n siyasi s\u0259hn\u0259d\u0259n sil\u0259 bil\u0259r. Bu is\u0259 Avropan\u0131n birba\u015fa qon\u015fulu\u011funda t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259siz, etibarl\u0131 v\u0259 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131la bil\u0259n t\u0259r\u0259fda\u015flar\u0131n d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259nm\u0259si m\u0259qs\u0259di il\u0259 ba\u015flatd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 proqram\u0131n\u0131n ilkin h\u0259d\u0259fl\u0259rin\u0259 zidd n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 yekunla\u015fd\u0131ra bil\u0259r.\n<\/p>\n

\n Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131 bel\u0259 ac\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259 il\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015fm\u0259m\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn h\u0259r bir halda \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin Avropaya inteqrasiyas\u0131n\u0131 d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259m\u0259li, bu inteqrasiyan\u0131n t\u0259m\u0259li olacaq v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015f c\u0259miyy\u0259tinin g\u00fccl\u0259ndirilm\u0259si istiqam\u0259tind\u0259 s\u0259yl\u0259ri art\u0131rmal\u0131 v\u0259 he\u00e7 bir halda \u015e\u0259rq T\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rini Rusiya il\u0259 m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259rin normalla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 prosesind\u0259 qurban verm\u0259m\u0259lidir. Yaln\u0131z bu halda 2020-ci ild\u0259n sonrak\u0131 n\u00f6vb\u0259ti 10 ild\u0259 t\u0259\u015f\u0259bb\u00fcs tam olmasa da, m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n m\u0259nada h\u0259d\u0259fin\u0259 \u00e7ata, inteqrasiya prosesi d\u0259rinl\u0259\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259r.\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n \u0130ctimai f\u0259al B\u0259xtiyar Hac\u0131yev
\n <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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