{"id":200143,"date":"2020-04-14T14:36:44","date_gmt":"2020-04-14T14:36:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/article\/issizlik-faizinin-yukseleceyi-proqnozlasidirilir\/"},"modified":"2020-04-14T14:36:44","modified_gmt":"2020-04-14T14:36:44","slug":"issizlik-faizinin-yukseleceyi-proqnozlasidirilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/issizlik-faizinin-yukseleceyi-proqnozlasidirilir\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130\u015fsizlik faizinin y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yi proqnozla\u015f\u0131d\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n
\n \u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131: \u201c\u201cFitch\u201d 2020-ci il \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn iqtisadi ki\u00e7ilm\u0259 g\u00f6zl\u0259yir\u201d
\n <\/i>\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n "Fitch Ratings"
\n <\/a>
\n beyn\u0259lxalq reytinq agentliyi Az\u0259rbaycanla ba\u011fl\u0131 proqnozu \u201cneqativ\u201d\u0259 endirib.\n<\/p>\n

\n Agentlik Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n xarici v\u0259 yerli valyutada emitentin uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli defolt reytinqinin (IDR) "BB+" s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 t\u0259sdiq edib. Reytinq \u00fczr\u0259 proqnozu is\u0259 "stabil"d\u0259n "m\u0259nfi"y\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fib.\n<\/p>\n

\n Agentliyin hesabat\u0131nda bildirilir ki, ba\u015f ver\u0259n hadis\u0259l\u0259r Az\u0259rbaycan \u00fczr\u0259 2020-ci il iyulun 17-n\u0259 t\u0259yin edilmi\u015f "Fitch" suveren reytinqin\u0259 yenid\u0259n bax\u0131lma t\u0259qvimd\u0259n k\u0259nara \u00e7\u0131xma\u011f\u0131 t\u0259l\u0259b edir.\n<\/p>\n

\n Agentlik ekspertl\u0259rinin fikrinc\u0259, 2020-ci ild\u0259 \u00dcDM 4.8% azalacaq. \u018fvv\u0259ll\u0259r \u201cFitch\u201d art\u0131m\u0131 2,2, Az\u0259rbaycan h\u00f6kum\u0259ti is\u0259 3 faiz proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131rd\u0131.\n<\/p>\n

\n Ekspertl\u0259r hesab edirl\u0259r ki, bu, indiki \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn deyil:\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cNeftin qiym\u0259tinin k\u0259skin enm\u0259si v\u0259 koronavirusun yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 almaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u0259n t\u0259dbirl\u0259r 2020-ci ild\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanda iqtisadi f\u0259all\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olacaq.\n<\/p>\n

\n Bel\u0259likl\u0259, "Fitch\u201d 2020-ci ild\u0259 \u00dcDM-in 4.8 faiz azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r. \u018fsasland\u0131r\u0131r ki, g\u0259lir, istehlak, neft v\u0259 qeyri-neft sektorlar\u0131 karantin m\u0259hdudiyy\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259n \u0259ziyy\u0259t \u00e7\u0259k\u0259c\u0259k:\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cBiz proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r\u0131q ki, neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri v\u0259 m\u0259cmu t\u0259l\u0259b artd\u0131qca, 2021-ci ild\u0259 \u00dcDM art\u0131m\u0131 2,5 faiz olacaq\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n Agentlik h\u0259m\u00e7inin, hesab edir ki, neftin qiym\u0259tinin d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 2020-ci ild\u0259 b\u00fcdc\u0259 k\u0259siri ilin \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259 g\u00fcman edil\u0259n 4,4 faiz \u0259v\u0259zin\u0259, \u00dcDM-in 6,8 faizi q\u0259d\u0259r olacaq:\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cNeftin k\u0259skin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 D\u00f6vl\u0259t Neft Fondunun g\u0259lirl\u0259rini xeyli azaldacaq. Eyni zamanda, bu d\u00f6vrd\u0259 sosial \u00f6d\u0259ni\u015fl\u0259r d\u0259 artacaq. \u00c7\u00fcnki i\u015fsizlik 2019-cu ild\u0259ki 5 faizd\u0259n 8 faiz\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cFitch\u201d g\u00f6zl\u0259yir ki, bir q\u0259d\u0259r \u0259vv\u0259l t\u0259tbiq edil\u0259n fiskal qaydalar m\u00fcv\u0259qq\u0259ti olaraq dayand\u0131r\u0131lacaq. Bu m\u00fcdd\u0259td\u0259 d\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259t b\u00f6hrana reaksiya ver\u0259c\u0259k.\n<\/p>\n

\n Agetlik hesab edir ki, d\u00f6vl\u0259t borcu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131d\u0131r (2019-cu ilin sonuna olan v\u0259ziyy\u0259t\u0259 \u00dcDM-nin 19,1 faizini t\u0259\u015fkil edir). Lakin koronavirusa qar\u015f\u0131 t\u0259dbirl\u0259rin maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259si s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n 2020-ci ilin sonuna \u00dcDM-nin 23,8 faizini t\u0259\u015fkil ed\u0259c\u0259k.\n<\/p>\n

\n Agentliyin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259sin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, neftin qiym\u0259tinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n cari \u0259m\u0259liyyatlar saldosu 2019-cu ild\u0259 m\u00fcsb\u0259t 9,3 faizd\u0259n, 2020-ci ilin sonunda m\u0259nfi 2,8 faiz (\u00dcDM-\u0259 nisb\u0259td\u0259) olacaq.\n<\/p>\n

\n Neftin qiym\u0259tinin b\u0259rpas\u0131 fonunda Az\u0259rbaycan 2021-ci ild\u0259 cari \u0259m\u0259liyatlar \u00fczr\u0259 5,2 faiz profisit\u0259 qay\u0131da bil\u0259r.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cFitch\u201d hesab edir ki, koronavirus pandemiyas\u0131 v\u0259 neftin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 qiym\u0259ti Az\u0259rbaycanda banklar\u0131n aktivl\u0259rinin keyfiyy\u0259tin\u0259 t\u0259sir ed\u0259c\u0259k.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cAz\u0259rbaycan banklar\u0131 h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 2015-i ild\u0259ki devalvasiya n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 aktivl\u0259rin keyfiyy\u0259tinin pisl\u0259\u015fm\u0259sind\u0259n tam \u00f6zl\u0259rin\u0259 g\u0259lm\u0259yib. H\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 z\u0259if olaraq qal\u0131rlar. Bu v\u0259ziyy\u0259t Fitch Banking System Indicator (BSI) g\u00f6st\u0259ricisind\u0259 \u201cB\u201d qiym\u0259ti il\u0259 \u0259ksini tap\u0131b. M\u0259cmu bank sektorunda vaxt\u0131 ke\u00e7mi\u015f kreditl\u0259rin pay\u0131 \u0259vv\u0259lki kimi y\u00fcks\u0259kdir\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n 2017-ci ild\u0259 borcun restrukturizasiyas\u0131ndan sonra ABB keyfiyy\u0259ti yax\u015f\u0131la\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f aktivl\u0259rl\u0259 m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259tliliy\u0259 qay\u0131d\u0131b.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131 R\u00f6v\u015f\u0259n A\u011fayev deyir ki, \u201cStandard & Poor's\u201d beyn\u0259lxalq agentliyinin ard\u0131nca \u201cFitch\u201d d\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n kredit reytinqini yenil\u0259yib. Xarici valyutada uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli reytinq BB+ s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 t\u0259sdiq edils\u0259 d\u0259, Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n m\u00f6vqeyi sabitd\u0259n neqativ\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fdirilib:\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cNeqativ m\u00f6vqe o dem\u0259kdir ki, g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259kd\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259nin reytinqinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sal\u0131nmas\u0131 riski var. \u201cStandard & Poor's\u201d v\u0259 \u201cFitch\u201d-in son r\u0259yl\u0259rind\u0259 ortaq bir m\u0259qam var: h\u00f6kum\u0259t siyas\u0259ti \u015f\u0259ffaf deyil v\u0259 bu perspektivi proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rma\u011f\u0131 \u00e7\u0259tinl\u0259\u015fdirir\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n \"796670BF-09D4-4B9E-8FDC-30260A5EDA8D_w1200_r1_s.jpg\"
\n R\u00f6v\u015f\u0259n A\u011fayev
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\n \u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131 deyir ki, \u201cFitch\u201d resurs g\u0259lirl\u0259rinin daha uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259t\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 qalaca\u011f\u0131 t\u0259dqird\u0259 sabit valyuta m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sinin davaml\u0131 olaraq qorunmas\u0131n\u0131n dayan\u0131qs\u0131z oldu\u011funu v\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259t\u0259 b\u00f6y\u00fck x\u0259rc\u0259 ba\u015fa g\u0259ldiyini vur\u011fulay\u0131r:\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cAgentliyin hesablamas\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259 fiskal defisit olmadan b\u00fcdc\u0259 icras\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn neftin qiym\u0259tinin \u0259n az\u0131 50.5 dollar olmas\u0131 laz\u0131md\u0131r. Odur ki, agentlik 2020-ci il \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 4.8 faiz iqtisadi ki\u00e7ilm\u0259 g\u00f6zl\u0259yir. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, \u0259n vacib \u015feyl\u0259rd\u0259n biri, i\u015fsizliyin 5 faizd\u0259n 8 faiz\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yini proqnozla\u015f\u0131d\u0131r\u0131r\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n R\u00f6v\u015f\u0259n A\u011fayev deyir ki, agentlik h\u0259m d\u0259 \u00dcDM-nin 6.8 faizi s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 fiskal defisit proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r:\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cBeyn\u0259lxalq Bank\u0131n \u00f6hd\u0259likl\u0259ri v\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259t sektoru \u00fczr\u0259 borclarla t\u0259minat da n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131nmaqla, h\u00f6kum\u0259tin m\u0259suliyy\u0259t da\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 borclar\u0131n \u00dcDM-\u0259 nisb\u0259ti 31 faiz \u0259traf\u0131ndad\u0131r\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ekspertl\u0259r hesab edirl\u0259r ki, bu, indiki \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn deyil<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":140525,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_sitemap_exclude":false,"_sitemap_priority":"","_sitemap_frequency":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-200143","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iqtisadiyyat","infinite-scroll-item","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0130\u015fsizlik faizinin y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yi proqnozla\u015f\u0131d\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r - MEYDAN.TV<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/issizlik-faizinin-yukseleceyi-proqnozlasidirilir\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"az_AZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u0130\u015fsizlik faizinin y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yi proqnozla\u015f\u0131d\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r - 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