{"id":200020,"date":"2020-04-06T14:04:39","date_gmt":"2020-04-06T14:04:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/article\/natiq-ceferli-neftin-taleyi-aprelin-9-da-mueyyenlesecek\/"},"modified":"2020-04-06T14:04:39","modified_gmt":"2020-04-06T14:04:39","slug":"natiq-ceferli-neftin-taleyi-aprelin-9-da-mueyyenlesecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/natiq-ceferli-neftin-taleyi-aprelin-9-da-mueyyenlesecek\/","title":{"rendered":"Natiq C\u0259f\u0259rli: Neftin taleyi aprelin 9-da m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nl\u0259\u015f\u0259c\u0259k"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n
\n "\u018fn d\u0259h\u015f\u0259tlisi budur ki, q\u0131f\u0131llanm\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyada 10 mln. barel g\u00fcnl\u00fck hasilat\u0131n azalmas\u0131 bel\u0259 i\u015f\u0259 yaram\u0131r\u201c
\n <\/i>\n<\/p>\n

\n Yen\u0259 d\u00fcnya birjalar\u0131nda neftin qiym\u0259ti ucuzla\u015f\u0131r.\n<\/p>\n

\n Londonun ICE (
\n
\n \u201cInterContinental Exchange Futures\u201d
\n <\/a>
\n ) birjas\u0131nda \u201cBrent\u201d markal\u0131 neftin bir barelinin qiym\u0259ti 0,18 dollar geril\u0259y\u0259r\u0259k 33,93 dollar olub.\n<\/p>\n

\n Nyu-Yorkun NYMEX (\u201cNew York Mercantile Exchange\u201d) birjas\u0131nda \u201cLight\u201d markal\u0131 neftin bir barelinin qiym\u0259ti is\u0259 0,48 dollar ucuzla\u015faraq 27,86 dollar t\u0259\u015fkil edib.\n<\/p>\n

\n M\u00fcst\u0259qil iqtisad\u00e7\u0131lar daim deyirl\u0259r ki, neftin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 Az\u0259rbaycan kimi neftd\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131 olan \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn a\u011f\u0131r n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259n\u0259 bil\u0259r.\n<\/p>\n

\n M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n 2020-ci ilin b\u00fcdc\u0259sind\u0259 neftin bir barelinin qiym\u0259ti 55 dollardan hesablan\u0131b. T\u0259xmin\u0259n haz\u0131rki qiym\u0259tin iki misli q\u0259d\u0259r. Bu, o dem\u0259kdir ki, Az\u0259rbaycan haz\u0131rki neft sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259r barelind\u0259 itirir.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131 Natiq C\u0259f\u0259rli deyir ki, neftin yax\u0131n aylar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn taleyi aprelin 9-da m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n edil\u0259c\u0259k. H\u0259min g\u00fcn OPEC v\u0259 Rusiya (\u0259slind\u0259 S\u0259udiyy\u0259 v\u0259 Rusiya) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ke\u00e7ir\u0259c\u0259k. H\u0259min g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fd\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n q\u0259rarlar\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir:\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201c\u018fn maraql\u0131 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 budur ki, Tramp v\u0259 AB\u015e d\u00fcnyada neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin\u0259 t\u0259sir ed\u0259n ba\u015fl\u0131ca g\u00fcc kimi yen\u0259 \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6st\u0259rdi. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259nin m\u0259\u011fzi n\u0259dir? Xat\u0131rlay\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131zsa, neft 70 dollara qalxan kimi Tramp bir \u201ctwit\u201d atd\u0131 v\u0259 OPEC+ format\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259hdid etdi. Bildirdi ki, qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri s\u00fcni yolla yuxar\u0131 \u00e7\u0259kirl\u0259r. Bu is\u0259 AB\u015e \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u0259qbul deyil. Baha neft qiym\u0259ti daha baha benzin dem\u0259kdir. Amerikal\u0131lar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bu, q\u0259buledilm\u0259zdir\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131 bildirir ki, AB\u015e se\u00e7icil\u0259rinin s\u0259sverm\u0259d\u0259 \u0259n \u00e7ox fikir verdiyi m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 benzin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ridir. \u00c7\u00fcnki AB\u015e avtomobil \u00f6lk\u0259sidir. Burada h\u0259r 1000 n\u0259f\u0259r\u0259 838 avtomobil d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cBu da d\u00fcnyada \u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rd\u0259n biridir. Tramp prezident se\u00e7il\u0259n il AB\u015e-da 1 qallon benzinin (3,7 litr) \u00f6lk\u0259 \u00fczr\u0259 orta qiym\u0259ti (\u015ftatdan \u015ftata f\u0259rql\u0259nirdi) 2,5 dollar civar\u0131nda idi. Ke\u00e7\u0259n ilin sonunda 1 qallon benzinin qiym\u0259t 4 dollar civar\u0131nda oldu. Bu da Tramp\u0131n xo\u015funa g\u0259lm\u0259di. Buna g\u00f6r\u0259 ard-arda \u201ctwit\u201d yazaraq qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri bir az a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7\u0259km\u0259yi bacard\u0131. O zaman da t\u0259hdid dolu b\u0259yanatlar\u0131 olurdu. H\u0259tta OPEC-l\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 \u201ckartel s\u00f6vd\u0259l\u0259\u015fm\u0259si\u201d m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259sini m\u0259hk\u0259m\u0259y\u0259 verm\u0259yi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrd\u00fcl\u0259r. Tramp\u0131n ist\u0259yi o idi ki, neft 45-50 dollar civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0259kilsin. Benzinin qallon qiym\u0259ti d\u0259 3 dollardan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olsun. Bu zaman se\u00e7kil\u0259rd\u0259 \u015fans\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. H\u0259m d\u0259 AB\u015e-\u0131n irili-x\u0131rdal\u0131 neft istehsal\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 45-50 dollar koridoru \u00e7ox konfortlu qiym\u0259t aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 idi\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n Natiq C\u0259f\u0259rli deyir ki, mart\u0131n \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259 OPEC-d\u0259 raz\u0131la\u015fma pozuldu. Rusiya v\u0259 S\u0259udiyy\u0259 anla\u015fmad\u0131lar v\u0259 qiym\u0259tl\u0259r k\u0259skin d\u00fc\u015fd\u00fc:\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cRusiyan\u0131n \u00f6z oyunu vard\u0131. AB\u015e istehsal\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 bazardan s\u0131x\u0131\u015fd\u0131r\u0131b \u00e7\u0131xartmaq, amma \u0259sas h\u0259d\u0259f bu da deyildi: M\u0259qs\u0259d qaz\u0131n da qiym\u0259tini ucuzla\u015fd\u0131raraq AB\u015e-\u0131n Avropaya s\u0131x\u0131lm\u0131\u015f qaz satmaq ideyas\u0131n\u0131 pu\u00e7a \u00e7\u0131xartmaq idi. AB\u015e aqressiv \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 Avropaya s\u0131x\u0131lm\u0131\u015f qaz (LNG) satma\u011fa ba\u015flam\u0131\u015fd\u0131. Bu il is\u0259 sat\u0131\u015f h\u0259cmini 80 mlrd. m3-\u0259 \u00e7atd\u0131rma\u011f\u0131 palanla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131rd\u0131. AB\u015e qaz\u0131 daha bahad\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnki logistika v\u0259 \u0259m\u0259liyyat x\u0259rcl\u0259ri daha \u00e7oxdur. Rusiya is\u0259 borular vasit\u0259sil\u0259 ild\u0259 Avropaya 150 mlrd. m3 qaz sat\u0131r. Bir ne\u00e7\u0259 ay daha ucuz satma\u011fa raz\u0131 idi ki, t\u0259ki AB\u015e o bazara gir\u0259 bilm\u0259sin. M\u0259nc\u0259, Kreml bu plan\u0131 ke\u00e7\u0259n ilin sonunda t\u0259sdiql\u0259mi\u015fdi. \u00c7\u00fcnki OPEC+ format\u0131nda n\u00f6vb\u0259ti g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn m\u0259hz martda olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nc\u0259d\u0259n bilinirdi. Mart\u0131n \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259 is\u0259 h\u0259l\u0259 d\u00fcnya tam \u201cq\u0131f\u0131llanmam\u0131\u015fd\u0131\u201d. Kreml virusun t\u0259sirl\u0259rinin miqyas\u0131n\u0131 anlamad\u0131 dey\u0259, anla\u015fman\u0131 pozdu\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131 deyir ki, bu d\u00f6vrd\u0259 S\u0259udiyy\u0259 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259nin ciddi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildiyind\u0259n daha b\u00f6y\u00fck hasilat k\u0259sintisin\u0259 getm\u0259yi t\u0259klif etmi\u015fdi:\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cAmma bu, S\u0259udiyy\u0259nin a\u011fl\u0131n\u0131n m\u0259hsulu deyildi \u2013 B\u00f6y\u00fck Qarda\u015f\u0131, AB\u015e m\u0259hz bel\u0259 m\u0259sl\u0259h\u0259t g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015fd\u00fc. M\u0259nc\u0259, AB\u015e Rusiyan\u0131n q\u0259rarlar\u0131ndan \u00f6nc\u0259d\u0259n x\u0259b\u0259ri var idi. H\u0259m d\u0259 virusun daha geni\u015f karantin t\u0259dbirl\u0259rin\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesablam\u0131\u015fd\u0131. Amma olan oldu, OPEC+ anla\u015fmas\u0131 pozuldu, neft 10 dollar ucuzla\u015fd\u0131. Bu hadis\u0259d\u0259n c\u0259mi 5 g\u00fcn sonra DST (D\u00fcnya S\u0259hiyy\u0259 T\u0259\u015fkilat\u0131) d\u00fcnyada pandemiya elan etdi. Bundan sonra \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r ard-ard\u0131na qapanma\u011fa, karantin t\u0259dbirl\u0259rini s\u0259rtl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259y\u0259 ba\u015flad\u0131lar. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00fcz\u0259rin\u0259 q\u0131f\u0131l vuruldu. Bu is\u0259 d\u00fcnyada neft istehlak\u0131n\u0131 ilk h\u0259ft\u0259 8 faiz, sonra 15 faiz, bu g\u00fcn\u0259 is\u0259 25-30 faiz azaltd\u0131. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 neft qiym\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259 \u201cs\u0259rb\u0259st d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259\u201d ba\u015flad\u0131. Birja qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri il\u0259 spot (g\u00fcnl\u00fck real sat\u0131\u015f) qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri aras\u0131nda u\u00e7urum yarand\u0131\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131 deyir ki, bu g\u00fcn d\u00fcnyada g\u00fcnl\u00fck 101 mln. barel neft hasil olunur. G\u00fcnl\u00fck istehlak is\u0259 65-70 mln. barel\u0259 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb. D\u00fcnya neftd\u0259 \u00fcz\u00fcr, xammal\u0131 saxlama\u011fa rezervuarlar, tankerl\u0259r \u00e7at\u0131\u015fm\u0131r:\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cAB\u015e neft istehsal\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259r barel \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn maya d\u0259y\u0259ri 25-35 dollar aras\u0131nda d\u0259yi\u015fir (\u015firk\u0259tin b\u00f6y\u00fckl\u00fcy\u00fc, logistik imkanlar\u0131, texnologi v\u0259ziyy\u0259tin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259), bu g\u00fcnk\u00fc qiym\u0259tl\u0259r AB\u015e istehsal\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n 80 faizinin m\u00fcflis olmas\u0131 dem\u0259kdir. Amma orda da bir \u201cp\u0259nc\u0259r\u0259\u201d var: AB\u015e-da b\u00fct\u00fcn neft istehsal\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 h\u0259mi\u015f\u0259 \u00f6z f\u0259aliyy\u0259tl\u0259rini s\u0131\u011fortalay\u0131rlar (hedging). Bu, onlara yax\u0131n h\u0259ft\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 d\u00f6zm\u0259y\u0259 imkan ver\u0259c\u0259k. Amma qiym\u0259tl\u0259r 2 ay 20-25 dollarda qalsa, \u00e7oxu m\u00fcflis olacaq. AB\u015e-da bu sah\u0259d\u0259 y\u00fczminl\u0259rl\u0259 insan \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. M\u0259hz buna g\u00f6r\u0259 yen\u0259 Tramp \u201ctwit\u201d q\u0131l\u0131nc\u0131n\u0131 \u0259lin\u0259 al\u0131b, i\u015f\u0259 m\u00fcdaxil oldu. Rusiyan\u0131 v\u0259 S\u0259udiyy\u0259ni t\u0259hdid edir ki, birlikd\u0259 hasilat\u0131 10-15 mln. barel azalts\u0131nlar. AB\u015e \u00f6z\u00fc is\u0259 hasilat\u0131 azaltmaq ist\u0259mir, deyir, \u201cbizd\u0259 3300 iri-x\u0131rda \u015firk\u0259t var, d\u00f6vl\u0259t onlara s\u00f6z dey\u0259 bilm\u0259z\u201d\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n \"Natiq
\n Natiq C\u0259f\u0259rli
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\n Natiq C\u0259f\u0259rliy\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, h\u0259m texniki, h\u0259m iqtisadi, h\u0259m d\u0259 m\u0259ntiq olaraq Rusiya v\u0259 S\u0259udiyy\u0259 hasilat\u0131 bird\u0259n-bir\u0259 10-15 mln. barel azalda bilm\u0259z. \u0130kisinin birlikd\u0259 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hasilat\u0131 21 mln. bareldir. G\u0259r\u0259k h\u0259r bir \u00f6lk\u0259 az\u0131 5-6 mln. barel k\u0259sintiy\u0259 getsin. Bu is\u0259 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn deyil:\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201c\u018fn d\u0259h\u015f\u0259tlisi budur ki, q\u0131f\u0131llanm\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyada 10 mln. barel g\u00fcnl\u00fck hasilat\u0131n azalmas\u0131 bel\u0259 i\u015f\u0259 yaram\u0131r. K\u0259sinti \u0259n az\u0131 20 mln. barel olmal\u0131d\u0131r ki, neft 35-40 dollar karidoruna yerl\u0259\u015fsin. Bu is\u0259 dediyim kimi he\u00e7 texniki olaraq da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn deyil\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr ki, aprelin 9-da bazara s\u00f6zl\u00fc m\u00fcdaxil\u0259l\u0259r real i\u015fl\u0259rd\u0259n daha \u00e7ox olacaq. T\u0259qrib\u0259n, 5-6 mln. barel k\u0259sintiy\u0259 ged\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259r. Bunun 3-3,5 mln. barelini S\u0259udiyy\u0259 \u00f6z \u00fcz\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u0259c\u0259k:\n<\/p>\n

\n \u201cRusiya da 1,5-2 mln. barel azaltma il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00f6hd\u0259lik g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u0259 bil\u0259r. Qalan h\u0259cmi is\u0259 iri-x\u0131rda \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin belin\u0259 y\u00fckl\u0259y\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259r. Biz \u0259vv\u0259l OPEC+ anla\u015fmas\u0131nda 20-30 min barel g\u00fcnl\u00fck k\u0259sintiy\u0259 boyun olmu\u015fduqsa, indi 50 min barel biz\u0259 y\u00fckl\u0259y\u0259c\u0259kl\u0259r. Amma bunun yet\u0259rli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ham\u0131 g\u00f6z\u0259l bilir. Ona g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 s\u00f6zl\u00fc m\u00fcdaxil\u0259l\u0259r daha \u00e7ox olacaq ki, b\u0259s g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259kd\u0259 15-20, h\u0259tta 35 mln. barel d\u0259 hasilat\u0131 azalda bil\u0259rik. Bel\u0259 s\u00f6zl\u00fc m\u00fcdaxil\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 bazar\u0131 diri tutma\u011fa, he\u00e7 olmasa, 35-40 dollar qiym\u0259t koridoruna \u00e7atmaq ist\u0259yirl\u0259r. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, Putin dedi ki, 42 dollar qiym\u0259ti Rusiya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ideal olar\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n Sonda Natiq C\u0259f\u0259rli bildirir ki, anla\u015fman\u0131n olmama ehtimal\u0131 da var. Bel\u0259 olsa 5-ci g\u00fcn birjalarda neft, dem\u0259k olar ki, havay\u0131 olacaq. Qiym\u0259t 10-15 dollara d\u00fc\u015f\u0259c\u0259k.\n<\/p>\n

\n Neftin d\u00fcnya bazar\u0131nda ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131na bir s\u0259b\u0259b d\u0259 \u00c7ind\u0259 yaran\u0131b d\u00fcnyaya yay\u0131lan COV\u0130D-19 virusudur. Virusun daha b\u00f6y\u00fck \u0259hat\u0259d\u0259 yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bir s\u0131ra d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259r qon\u015fu \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 s\u0259rh\u0259dl\u0259rini qapay\u0131b, beyn\u0259lxalq u\u00e7u\u015flara m\u0259hdudiyy\u0259t t\u0259tbiq edib, bir \u00e7ox \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 sad\u0259 insanlar\u0131n evd\u0259n \u00e7\u0131xmas\u0131 yasaqlan\u0131b. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 neft\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bat k\u0259skin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb.\n<\/p>\n

\n Art\u0131q koronovirusdan d\u00fcnya \u00fczr\u0259 \u00f6l\u0259nl\u0259rin say\u0131 70 min\u0259 yax\u0131nla\u015f\u0131r.\n<\/p>\n

\n 2020-ci ilin \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259ti 70 dollar\/barel, mart\u0131n \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259 is\u0259 50 dollar\/bareld\u0259n \u00e7ox olub.\n<\/p>\n

\n Az\u0259rbaycan neftinin bir barelinin qiym\u0259ti \u0259n son 2001-ci ilin dekabr\u0131nda minimuma enmi\u015fdi. Bu zaman qiym\u0259t 19,15 dollar olmu\u015fdu. 2008-ci ilin iyulunda is\u0259 maksimuma y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259r\u0259k 149,66 dollara qalxm\u0131\u015fd\u0131. Bu g\u00fcn is\u0259 24,14 dollardan t\u0259klif edilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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