\n AB\u015e-\u0131n \u00f6n\u0259mli beyin m\u0259rk\u0259zi olan "Stratfor"un qurucusu George Fridman\u0131n "G\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k Y\u00fcz \u0130l" (The Next 100 Years) adl\u0131 kitab\u0131 var. (T\u00fcrk\u00e7\u0259 t\u0259rc\u00fcm\u0259si d\u0259 var). Kitab, ad\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fcy\u00fc kimi, b\u00f6y\u00fck c\u0259sar\u0259t t\u0259l\u0259b ed\u0259n bir m\u0259qs\u0259d \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yaz\u0131l\u0131b; g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yi \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u0259k. (\u018fs\u0259r, \u0259lb\u0259tt\u0259 daha \u00e7ox siyasi v\u0259 sosioloji bir t\u0259hlil \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 qurulub).\n<\/p>\n
\n Kitab\u0131n \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259 bildirilir ki, \u0259g\u0259r biz 1900-c\u00fc ild\u0259 ya\u015fasayd\u0131q, he\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u0259zdik, c\u0259mi 14 il sonra d\u00fcnya m\u00fcharib\u0259si ba\u015f ver\u0259c\u0259k; Avropa, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u015f\u0259rqini \u00f6z m\u00fcst\u0259ml\u0259k\u0259si alt\u0131nda tutub v\u0259 firavan ya\u015fay\u0131r, m\u00fcharib\u0259ni, \u0259n birinci, el\u0259 \u00f6z\u00fc ist\u0259mir. Amma\u2026 c\u0259mi 14 il sonra el\u0259 Avropada, "qiyam\u0259t qopur".\n<\/p>\n
\n Sonra t\u0259s\u0259vv\u00fcr edin ki, bu s\u0259f\u0259r1920-ci ild\u0259siz; d\u00fcnya, b\u00f6y\u00fck bir m\u00fcharib\u0259nin da\u011f\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131ndan t\u0259z\u0259 \u00e7\u0131x\u0131b v\u0259 m\u00f6vcud olan b\u00fct\u00fcn imperiyalar da\u011f\u0131l\u0131b. Bir \u015fey ayd\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr ki, Almaniya \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259 qurulan t\u0259zyiql\u0259r, yeni bir sava\u015fa imkan verm\u0259z. Lakin\u2026 18 il sonra, Almaniya, t\u0259kba\u015f\u0131na b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyaya qar\u015f\u0131 \u00fcsyan edir v\u0259 \u0130kinci d\u00fcnya m\u00fcharib\u0259si ba\u015f verir…\n<\/p>\n
\n …V\u0259 sonra da 1960-c\u0131 il v\u0259 he\u00e7 kimin t\u0259s\u0259vv\u00fcr ed\u0259 bilm\u0259diyi bir durum var; Almaniya par\u00e7alan\u0131b v\u0259 d\u00fcnya, 2 superg\u00fcc\u00fcn h\u00f6kmranl\u0131\u011f\u0131na b\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcb; AB\u015e v\u0259 SSR\u0130\u2026.\n<\/p>\n
\n Bel\u0259c\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259llif, 1900-c\u00fc ild\u0259n 2000-ci il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r, h\u0259r 20 ild\u0259n bir, yeni bir m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259nin yarand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 h\u0259r m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259nin, daha \u00f6nc\u0259 t\u0259s\u0259vv\u00fcrolunmaz oldu\u011funu, SSR\u0130-nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 v\u0259 s. tendensiyalar timsal\u0131nda g\u00f6st\u0259rir.\n<\/p>\n
\n Dey\u0259 bil\u0259rsiz ki, bunlar\u0131n, bu giri\u015fin m\u00f6vzumuza n\u0259 d\u0259xli var? T\u0259l\u0259sm\u0259yin, izah ed\u0259c\u0259m, amma qay\u0131daq kitaba v\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259llifin, hans\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259 \u00e7\u0131xartd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 qeyd ed\u0259k; \u201cQ\u0259ti olan yaln\u0131z bir \u015fey var ki, \u00fcmumi t\u0259s\u0259vv\u00fcrl\u0259r, insanlar\u0131n inan\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015fd\u0131r! 20 illik d\u00f6ng\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 he\u00e7 bir sehr yoxdur. B\u0259sit bir faktor yoxdur, \u00e7oxlu faktor var\u201d.\n<\/p>\n
\n Y\u0259ni sad\u0259 dild\u0259 des\u0259k, g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yi t\u0259xmin etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ya g\u0259r\u0259k \u00e7ox g\u00fccl\u00fc bir a\u011f\u0131la v\u0259 analiz\u0259 sahib olasan, ya da g\u0259r\u0259k kahin olasan. Adi halda is\u0259 g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k, \u00e7ox qarma\u015f\u0131q v\u0259 m\u00fcbh\u0259mdir, \u00e7\u00fcnki \u00e7oxlu, dola\u015f\u0131q faktorlar\u0131n v\u0259 k\u0259si\u015fm\u0259l\u0259rin t\u0259siril\u0259 yaran\u0131r.\n<\/p>\n
\n \u0130ndi qay\u0131daq m\u00f6vzumuza; g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k, ona g\u00f6r\u0259 t\u0259xminedilm\u0259zdir ki, insanlar\u0131n maraqlar\u0131 v\u0259 davran\u0131\u015f motivl\u0259ri d\u0259 \u00e7ox f\u0259rqlidir! Eyni bir insan, eyni bir situasiyada, f\u0259rqli q\u0259rarlar ver\u0259 bilir. V\u0259 bir insan\u0131n, eynil\u0259, kimi sevib, kimi sevm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259yini t\u0259xmin etm\u0259k d\u0259 \u00e7\u0259tindir. \u00c7\u00fcnki \u00e7oxlu faktorlar rol oynay\u0131r; o andak\u0131 psixoloji durum, z\u0259ka s\u0259viyy\u0259si, maddi durum, sosioloji-\u00e7evr\u0259 faktoru, iman v\u0259 inanc s\u0259viyy\u0259si v\u0259 s…\n<\/p>\n
\n V\u0259 siz\u0259 q\u0259rib\u0259 g\u0259ls\u0259 d\u0259, bununla razla\u015fmasaz da, bu faktd\u0131r ki, insanlar\u0131n-s\u0259nin, m\u0259nim, ham\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u0259slind\u0259 sabit v\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259z prinsipl\u0259ri yoxdur! Y\u0259ni bu g\u00fcn sevdiyimizi, sabah sevm\u0259y\u0259, sevm\u0259diyimizi d\u0259 sabah sev\u0259 bil\u0259rik! Bunu, faktlardan da g\u00f6rm\u0259k olar.\n<\/p>\n
\n Son 1 ild\u0259ki bo\u015fanma v\u0259 evl\u0259nm\u0259 statistikas\u0131n\u0131n detall\u0131 qrafikin\u0259 baxma \u015fans\u0131m\u0131z olsayd\u0131, o halda g\u00f6r\u0259rdik ki, insanlar\u0131n kimis\u0259 sevm\u0259sind\u0259, ya da evl\u0259nm\u0259sind\u0259, sabit v\u0259 q\u0259ti bir faktor yoxdur! Y\u0259ni n\u0259 pul, n\u0259 g\u00f6z\u0259llik, n\u0259 m\u0259n\u0259viyyat, n\u0259 savad-he\u00e7 bir faktorun birm\u0259nal\u0131 hakimiyy\u0259ti yoxdur. \u018fslind\u0259, insanlar n\u0259 ist\u0259dikl\u0259rini \u00f6zl\u0259ri d\u0259 bilmirl\u0259r!\n<\/p>\n
\n Eyni tipli, eyni xarakterli 5 insandan biri, qar\u015f\u0131 cinsd\u0259 maddiyyatdan t\u0259sirl\u0259nir, o birisi g\u00f6z\u0259llikd\u0259n, bir ba\u015fqas\u0131 savaddan, dig\u0259ri dindar g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcd\u0259n, o birisi t\u0259rbiy\u0259d\u0259n v\u0259 s… Ya da eyni bir insan, \u00f6z beynind\u0259 m\u0259hz savadl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6n planda g\u00f6rd\u00fcy\u00fc halda, sad\u0259c\u0259 olaraq yara\u015f\u0131ql\u0131 birisin\u0259 \u00fcr\u0259yini qapd\u0131ra bilir. Ba\u015fqas\u0131 is\u0259 t\u0259rbiy\u0259ni m\u00fch\u00fcm bildiyi halda, sad\u0259c\u0259 imkanl\u0131 birisin\u0259 \u00fcr\u0259yini qapd\u0131ra bilir. V\u0259 h\u0259tta el\u0259, t\u0259rbiy\u0259ni \u00f6n planda g\u00f6r\u00fcb t\u0259rbiy\u0259li hesab etdiyi biril\u0259 ail\u0259 qurdu\u011fu halda, \u00e7ox ke\u00e7m\u0259d\u0259n bo\u015fana bilir. \u00c7ox yox, c\u0259mi 10 n\u0259f\u0259r, \u00f6z \u0259traf\u0131na, dostlar\u0131na baxsa v\u0259 g\u00f6rd\u00fckl\u0259rini biz\u0259 dan\u0131\u015fsa, bu dedikl\u0259rimin h\u0259qiq\u0259t oldu\u011fu t\u0259sdiq olunacaq. El\u0259 h\u0259r birinizin \u0259traf\u0131nda bo\u015fanm\u0131\u015f insanlar var; onlar\u0131 da bu statistika kimi yoxlaya bil\u0259rsiz; nec\u0259 sevibl\u0259r v\u0259 niy\u0259 bo\u015fan\u0131blar? \u018fmin ola bil\u0259rsiz ki \u0259ks\u0259riyy\u0259t, sev\u0259r\u0259k, ist\u0259y\u0259r\u0259k, \u00f6z irad\u0259si il\u0259 evl\u0259ndiyini dey\u0259c\u0259k. Az qala h\u0259r k\u0259s, sev\u0259rk\u0259n, \u00f6z\u00fcn\u0259 \u201chaql\u0131\u201d g\u0259r\u0259k\u00e7\u0259l\u0259r tapd\u0131\u011f\u0131 kimi, eynil\u0259 bo\u015fananda da \u201chaql\u0131\u201d g\u0259r\u0259k\u00e7\u0259l\u0259r tap\u0131r. H\u0259tta b\u0259z\u0259n, evl\u0259n\u0259rk\u0259n tap\u0131lan g\u0259r\u0259k\u00e7\u0259, bo\u015fanark\u0259n tap\u0131lan g\u0259r\u0259k\u00e7\u0259nin tam \u0259ksi olur. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, eyni bir insan\u0131, evl\u0259n\u0259nd\u0259 ideal, bo\u015fananda is\u0259 tam r\u0259zil birisi hesab edir. Bu g\u00fcn \u201ca\u011f\u201d dediyin\u0259, sabah \u201cqara\u201d dey\u0259n insanlar, istisna hesab olunmayacaq q\u0259d\u0259r \u00e7oxdur. V\u0259 bu c\u00fcr k\u0259skin m\u00f6vqe d\u0259yi\u015fikliyi v\u0259 t\u0259zad insanlar\u0131n q\u0259rars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 b\u0259sir\u0259tsizliyini g\u00f6st\u0259rir.\n<\/p>\n
\n B\u0259li, \u00e7oxlu v\u0259 dola\u015f\u0131q faktorlar\u0131n rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fcnya m\u0259nz\u0259r\u0259sini, 20 il \u00f6nc\u0259d\u0259n h\u0259tta 5 il \u00f6nc\u0259d\u0259n t\u0259xmin etm\u0259k m\u00fc\u015fk\u00fcl oldu\u011fu kimi, bir q\u0131z\u0131n, ya da bir o\u011flan\u0131n hans\u0131 tip insan\u0131 sev\u0259c\u0259yini d\u0259 t\u0259xmin etm\u0259k m\u00fc\u015fk\u00fcld\u00fcr v\u0259 \u00e7ox vaxt onun \u00f6z\u00fcn\u0259 d\u0259 nam\u0259lumdur.\n<\/p>\n
\n P.S. \u018flb\u0259tt\u0259, insanlar, evlilikd\u0259, \u00f6zl\u0259ri d\u0259 n\u0259 ist\u0259dikl\u0259rini bilm\u0259dikl\u0259ri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, ayr\u0131lmalar\u0131n s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 artmas\u0131 da tam t\u0259bii hald\u0131r. \u00c7ox ke\u00e7m\u0259d\u0259n, c\u0259mi 10-15 il sonra, ayr\u0131lmalar, 90-95 faizd\u0259n d\u0259 \u00e7ox olacaq v\u0259 n\u0259inki \u201cail\u0259\u201d, h\u0259tta bir m\u00fcdd\u0259t sonra \u201csevgi\u201d anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 da m\u00f6vcud olmayacaq.\n<\/p>\n
\n \u00c7ox t\u0259\u0259ss\u00fcf, amma bu, real bir proqnozdur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130nsanlar\u0131n – s\u0259nin, m\u0259nim, ham\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u0259slind\u0259 sabit v\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259z prinsipl\u0259ri yoxdur!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":127217,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_sitemap_exclude":false,"_sitemap_priority":"","_sitemap_frequency":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[57],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-196295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-menim-fikrimce","infinite-scroll-item","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n