{"id":190472,"date":"2018-06-15T00:38:29","date_gmt":"2018-06-15T00:38:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/article\/iqtisadi-reqemleri-siyasilesdirmekle-uzaga-getmek-mumkun-olmayacaq\/"},"modified":"2018-06-15T00:38:29","modified_gmt":"2018-06-15T00:38:29","slug":"iqtisadi-reqemleri-siyasilesdirmekle-uzaga-getmek-mumkun-olmayacaq","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/iqtisadi-reqemleri-siyasilesdirmekle-uzaga-getmek-mumkun-olmayacaq\/","title":{"rendered":"”\u0130qtisadi r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259ri siyasil\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259kl\u0259 uza\u011fa getm\u0259k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacaq”"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n \"R\u00f6v\u015f\u0259n
\n R\u00f6v\u015f\u0259n A\u011fayev
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\n \"R\u00f6v\u015f\u0259n
\n R\u00f6v\u015f\u0259n A\u011fayev
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\n
\n R\u00f6v\u015f\u0259n A\u011fayev: ”Neftin rolu il\u0259 deyil, biliyin v\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k texnologiyan\u0131n roluyla dayan\u0131ql\u0131 iqtisadi aktivlik formala\u015fa bil\u0259r”
\n <\/i>\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n \u0130dar\u0259 Hey\u0259tinin s\u0259dri Elman R\u00fcst\u0259mov iyunun 14-d\u0259 ke\u00e7irdiyi m\u0259tbuat konfrans\u0131nda bir s\u0131ra m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 toxunub. \u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131 R\u00f6v\u015f\u0259n A\u011fayevl\u0259 s\u00f6hb\u0259timizd\u0259 ba\u015f bankirin a\u00e7\u0131qlamalar\u0131na v\u0259 ba\u015fqa iqtisadi m\u0259qamlara ayd\u0131nl\u0131q g\u0259tirm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fd\u0131q.
\n <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n – R\u00f6v\u015f\u0259n b\u0259y, M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n \u0130dar\u0259 Hey\u0259tinin s\u0259dri Elman R\u00fcst\u0259movun ilin sonuna inflyasiyan\u0131n birr\u0259q\u0259mli olmas\u0131 haqda fikrini b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrs\u00fcn\u00fczm\u00fc?
\n <\/i>
\n <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n – Ba\u015f bankirin dedikl\u0259ri reald\u0131r. Az\u0259rbaycanda 2016-2017-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259ki ikir\u0259q\u0259mli inflyasiya 2015-ci ild\u0259 manat\u0131n k\u0259skin devalvasiyas\u0131n\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259si idi. Devalvasiya \u00f6z\u00fc il\u0259 b\u0259rab\u0259r idxal inflyasiyas\u0131 g\u0259tirdi. \u00c7\u00fcnki manat\u0131n ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131, dollar\u0131n bahala\u015fmas\u0131 idxal mallar\u0131n\u0131 avtomatik olaraq bahala\u015fd\u0131rd\u0131. Art\u0131q devalvasiyan\u0131n inflyasiyayarad\u0131c\u0131 t\u0259sirl\u0259ri aradan qalx\u0131r. Prinsip etibar\u0131 il\u0259 ilin sonuna q\u0259d\u0259r f\u00f6vq\u0259lad\u0259 n\u0259s\u0259 ba\u015f verm\u0259s\u0259, y\u0259ni manat n\u00f6vb\u0259ti d\u0259f\u0259 d\u0259y\u0259rd\u0259n d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259s\u0259, inflyasiyan\u0131 birr\u0259q\u0259mli h\u0259dd\u0259 saxlamaq real g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr. Lakin \u201cm\u0259tb\u0259x inflyasiyas\u0131\u201dn\u0131n da birr\u0259q\u0259mli s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 saxlama\u011f\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olub-olmamas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u0259m\u0259k \u00e7\u0259tindir. \u00c7\u00fcnki ad\u0259t\u0259n \u0259rzaq inf\u0131yasiyas\u0131 orta qiym\u0259t indeksind\u0259n bir q\u0259d\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259k ola bilir. N\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaq ki, \u00f6t\u0259n ill\u0259rl\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 bu il sanki m\u00f6vs\u00fcmi faktorlar\u0131n k\u0259nd t\u0259s\u0259rr\u00fcfat\u0131 m\u0259hsullar\u0131na azald\u0131c\u0131 t\u0259siri h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 effektiv deyil. \u018flav\u0259 olaraq, \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 v\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 s\u0259rtl\u0259\u015fdirilmi\u015f pul-kredit siyas\u0259tinin uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259t \u0259rzind\u0259 qorunub saxlanmas\u0131 da, ikir\u0259q\u0259mli inflyasiya ocaqlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6nd\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f olur.\n<\/p>\n

\n –
\n
\n
\n B\u0259s FED-in u\u00e7ot d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sini art\u0131rmas\u0131 manata t\u0259zyiql\u0259ri art\u0131ra bil\u0259rmi?
\n <\/i>
\n <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n – FED-in u\u00e7ot d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sini art\u0131rmas\u0131 q\u0259rar\u0131 ad\u0259t\u0259n d\u00fcnya maliyy\u0259 bazarlar\u0131na interqasiya olunan \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin valyutas\u0131na daha \u00e7ox t\u0259sir edir. \u018fg\u0259r FED u\u00e7ot d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sini art\u0131r\u0131rsa, bu, o dem\u0259kdir ki, bu g\u00fcn \u0259n az\u0131 60 faizi dollara indeksl\u0259n\u0259n d\u00fcnya fond bazarlar\u0131na, borc v\u0259 kapital bazarlar\u0131na \u00f6z t\u0259sirini g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259c\u0259k. Az\u0259rbaycan d\u00fcnya maliyy\u0259 bazarlar\u0131na inteqrasiya olunmay\u0131b, daxild\u0259 qiym\u0259tli ka\u011f\u0131zlar bazar\u0131 inki\u015faf etm\u0259yib v\u0259 milli fond bazar\u0131na dollarla yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yoxdur. Bir s\u00f6zl\u0259, FED-in q\u0259rarlar\u0131n\u0131n bizim milli valyutaya t\u0259sir kanallar\u0131 qapal\u0131d\u0131rsa, bu q\u0259rar\u0131n birba\u015fa t\u0259siri nec\u0259 ola bil\u0259r? Dolay\u0131 t\u0259sirl\u0259r ola bil\u0259r. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, FED q\u0259rar\u0131ndan t\u0259sirl\u0259n\u0259n qlobal iqtisadiyyatda ortam\u00fcdd\u0259tli d\u00f6vrd\u0259 dur\u011funluq v\u0259 eni\u015f yaran\u0131rsa, onun n\u0259tic\u0259si kimi neft birjalar\u0131 qiym\u0259t riskil\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015firs\u0259, n\u0259tic\u0259si bizd\u0259n yan ke\u00e7m\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k. Bir s\u00f6zl\u0259, Az\u0259rbaycan manat\u0131n\u0131n taleyini birba\u015fa amil kimi FED-in q\u0259rar\u0131 deyil, onun arxas\u0131nda dayanan neft amili m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n edir. Qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259l\u0259r g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, yax\u0131n bir-iki ild\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259ti 45 dollara q\u0259d\u0259r d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259s\u0259, manat\u0131n sabitliyini qorumaq m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Amma neftin qiym\u0259tinin 45 dollardan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si manat\u0131n sabitliyi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259 yarad\u0131r. Q\u0131sas\u0131, o riskl\u0259ri ki, T\u00fcrkiy\u0259, Braziliya, Argentina v\u0259 C\u0259nubi Afrika Respublikas\u0131 kimi inki\u015faf etm\u0259kd\u0259 olan \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin valyutalar\u0131 da\u015f\u0131y\u0131r, manat o riskl\u0259rd\u0259n uzaqd\u0131r.\n<\/p>\n

\n –
\n
\n
\n Kredit faizl\u0259rinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn riskl\u0259r h\u0259l\u0259 qal\u0131rm\u0131? Elman R\u00fcst\u0259mov bu istiqam\u0259td\u0259 riskl\u0259rin aradan qalxmayaca\u011f\u0131 t\u0259qdird\u0259 faizl\u0259rin d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259yini deyib\u2026
\n <\/i>
\n <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n – Elman R\u00fcst\u0259mov \u00e7ox g\u00fcman ki, real sektorun z\u0259if potensial\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 yaranan riskl\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutur. Kredit faizl\u0259ri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fd\u00fcy\u00fc halda iqtisadiyyat\u0131n kredit\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131 art\u0131r. Bel\u0259 olanda is\u0259 pul-kredit siyas\u0259tinin yum\u015fald\u0131lmas\u0131na ehtiyac yaran\u0131r. Bununla da, M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank iqtisadiyyat\u0131n pul t\u0259minat\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmal\u0131 olur. Arxas\u0131nda \u0259lav\u0259 d\u0259y\u0259r yaranan iqtisadiyyat yoxdursa, geni\u015fl\u0259n\u0259n pul t\u0259minat\u0131 inflyasiya t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sini art\u0131r\u0131r. \u018fks halda ucuz kreditl\u0259r h\u0259m ev t\u0259s\u0259rr\u00fcfatlar\u0131n\u0131, h\u0259m d\u0259 biznes sektorunu istehlak m\u0259qs\u0259dli, valyuta bazar\u0131na istiqam\u0259tl\u0259n\u0259n kreditl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259y\u0259 h\u0259v\u0259sl\u0259ndirir. Nec\u0259 ki, bunun n\u00fcmun\u0259sini biz 2005-2014-c\u00fc ild\u0259 ya\u015fad\u0131q. Lakin kreditl\u0259r hesab\u0131na r\u0259qab\u0259tqabiliyy\u0259tli m\u0259hsul istehsal\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fl\u0259ndir\u0259r\u0259k ixrac\u0131 geni\u015fl\u0259ndirirl\u0259rs\u0259, idxal\u0131 \u0259v\u0259zl\u0259y\u0259n daxili istehsal yarada bilirl\u0259rs\u0259, bu halda ucuz kreditl\u0259r n\u0259inki inflyasiya riski yarad\u0131r, \u0259ksin\u0259 iqitsadi inki\u015faf\u0131 t\u0259min ed\u0259n amil\u0259 \u00e7evrilir. Bu da valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u0259rim\u0259k riskini yarad\u0131r. Bu \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 h\u0259m ev t\u0259s\u0259rr\u00fcfatlar\u0131, h\u0259m d\u0259 biznes \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn kreditl\u0259r istehlak\u0131 geni\u015fl\u0259ndir\u0259n deyil, s\u0259rmay\u0259 qoyulu\u015fu vasit\u0259sin\u0259 \u00e7evrilir. Onlar g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fcy\u00fc pullarla avadanl\u0131qlar, cihazlar al\u0131r, tikintil\u0259r apar\u0131rlar, \u0259sas fondlar yarad\u0131rlar. \u0130stehsal m\u0259qs\u0259dli kreditl\u0259\u015fm\u0259nin inflyasiyayarad\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fc olmur he\u00e7 zaman. Bu bax\u0131mdan pul k\u00fctl\u0259sinin \u00dcDM-d\u0259 pay\u0131n\u0131n 100-150 faiz\u0259 \u00e7atd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 \u201cniy\u0259 inflyasiya yoxdu\u201d sual\u0131na cavab axtarark\u0259n bu amili n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 almaq laz\u0131md\u0131r. Amma bizd\u0259 durum nec\u0259dir? Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n daxili bazar\u0131 m\u0259hduddur, \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 r\u0259qab\u0259t qabiliyy\u0259tli iqtisadiyyat yoxdur, \u0259ks\u0259r sah\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 idxal mallar\u0131 daha s\u0259rf\u0259lidir, xaric\u0259 is\u0259 m\u0259hsul sata bilmirik. Ona g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 bizd\u0259 pul multiplikatorunun s\u0259viyy\u0259si \u00e7ox a\u015fa\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Banklar z\u0259if potensiala malik real sektorla \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131q ed\u0259r\u0259k, kredit emissiyas\u0131 vasit\u0259sil\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131n pul t\u0259minat\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131ran instituta \u00e7evril\u0259 bilmirl\u0259r. O ba\u015fqa m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259dir ki, birba\u015fa m\u0259suliyy\u0259t da\u015f\u0131masa da, M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank bu problemin yaranmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olmu\u015f h\u0259lq\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n biridir. \u00c7\u00fcnki \u0259g\u0259r M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank m\u00fcst\u0259qil, siyas\u0259t t\u0259sirind\u0259n azad qurumdursa, h\u00f6kum\u0259tin qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131q \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 qoymal\u0131d\u0131r ki, real sektorun indiki durumunda pul-kredit siyas\u0259tini h\u0259yata ke\u00e7ir\u0259 bilm\u0259r\u0259m. Ancaq M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n b\u0259yanatlar\u0131ndan \u201c\u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 problem yoxdur, real sektor inki\u015faf edir, iqtisadi f\u0259all\u0131q art\u0131r\u201d kimi p\u0259rd\u0259l\u0259yici yana\u015fmalar daha \u00e7ox olur. Halbuki, M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n funksiyalar\u0131ndan biri odur ki, real sektoru monitorinq edib istimaiyy\u0259ti, biznesi, h\u00f6kum\u0259ti obyektiv \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 m\u0259lumatland\u0131rs\u0131n. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, Qazax\u0131stan\u0131n M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n\u0131n sayt\u0131nda real sektorun monitorinq hesabatlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131qd\u0131r. Amma Az\u0259rbaycan M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n\u0131n sayt\u0131nda bir hesabat da yoxdur ki, ictimaiyy\u0259t bank\u0131n n\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r obyektiv v\u0259 \u015f\u0259ffaf \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 real sektorda durumu d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259ndirdiyini g\u00f6rs\u00fcn. Yen\u0259 deyir\u0259m, ba\u015f bankir n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n dan\u0131\u015fark\u0131n haql\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u0259 bil\u0259r, amma s\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259rin yaranmas\u0131nda onun da \u00f6z s\u0259lahiyy\u0259tl\u0259rinin s\u0259rh\u0259dl\u0259ri daxilind\u0259 m\u0259suliyy\u0259t pay\u0131 var.\n<\/p>\n

\n –
\n
\n
\n B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlara r\u0259\u011fm\u0259n Elman R\u00fcst\u0259mov iqtisadi aktivliyin y\u00fcks\u0259ldiyini bilririr\u2026
\n <\/i>
\n <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n – \u015e\u00fcbh\u0259siz ki, iqtisadi aktivlik investisiyalara v\u0259 tikinti sektoruna ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130st\u0259nil\u0259n iqtisadi t\u0259hlil\u00e7i son 3-4 ilin dinamikas\u0131na baxsa, g\u00f6r\u0259c\u0259k ki, iqtisadi aktivliyin d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259sinin s\u0259b\u0259bi tikinti v\u0259 investisiyalar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 olub. \u00c7\u00fcnki son 15 ild\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131n h\u0259r\u0259k\u0259tverici q\u00fcvv\u0259si neft v\u0259saitl\u0259ri hesab\u0131na yaranan n\u0259h\u0259ng tikinti h\u00f6vz\u0259si olmu\u015fdu. N\u0259 zaman ki, bu h\u00f6vz\u0259 daral\u0131b, aktivlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb, neft pullar\u0131 hesab\u0131na h\u00f6vz\u0259 b\u00f6y\u00fcy\u0259nd\u0259 iqtisadi aktivlik art\u0131b. \u00d6t\u0259n ilin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan neftin qiym\u0259ti artma\u011fa ba\u015flayandan sonra h\u00f6kum\u0259tin b\u0259yanatlar\u0131nda islahat s\u00f6z\u00fc leksiondan \u00e7\u0131xd\u0131, \u0259v\u0259zind\u0259 tikinti, investisiya s\u00f6z\u00fc artd\u0131. B\u00fcdc\u0259d\u0259 d\u0259 bunu g\u00f6rm\u0259k olur. \u00dcmumi daxili m\u0259hsulun art\u0131m\u0131 da tikinti h\u00f6vz\u0259sinin geni\u015fl\u0259nm\u0259si hesab\u0131na olur, h\u00f6kum\u0259t yen\u0259 d\u0259 infrastruktur layih\u0259l\u0259ri h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irir, bu is\u0259 pul t\u0259l\u0259b edir. Ancaq iqtisadi aktivlik o zaman dayanaql\u0131 hesab edil\u0259rdi ki, h\u00f6kum\u0259tin pulu hesab\u0131na deyil, \u00f6z\u0259l sektorun, biznesin hesab\u0131na olard\u0131. \u018fg\u0259r bu, ba\u015f vermirs\u0259, h\u0259min iqtisadi aktivlik dayan\u0131ql\u0131 deyil. Bax\u0131n, 10 il – 2005-2015-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259 iqtisadi aktivlik hans\u0131 s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 artm\u0131\u015fd\u0131sa, sonra da h\u0259min s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 azalma\u011fa ba\u015flad\u0131. S\u0259b\u0259b neftin qiym\u0259tinin d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si idi. Ona g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 Elman R\u00fcst\u0259movun dediyi iqtisadi aktivliyi m\u00fcsb\u0259t tendensiya kimi d\u0259 q\u0259bul etmir\u0259m.\n<\/p>\n

\n –
\n
\n
\n Y\u0259qin siz neftin g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259k qiym\u0259ti bax\u0131m\u0131ndan bel\u0259 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrs\u00fcn\u00fcz?
\n <\/i>
\n <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n – \u015e\u00fcbh\u0259siz. Son vaxtlar Rusiyan\u0131n, OPEC-in bazara a\u00e7\u0131q m\u00fcdaxil\u0259l\u0259ri il\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259tind\u0259 art\u0131m ba\u015f verdi v\u0259 bu, a\u015fkar inzibati m\u00fcdaxil\u0259ydi. \u00c7\u00fcnki ist\u0259nil\u0259n istehasal sah\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 ”oliqapol qruplar” bazara t\u0259sir ed\u0259n q\u0259rarlar verirl\u0259rs\u0259, bu, a\u00e7\u0131q-a\u015fkar bazara qeyri-bazar al\u0259tl\u0259ril\u0259 m\u00fcdaxil\u0259dir. Tutaq ki, AB\u015e hasilat\u0131 art\u0131raraq, \u015fist hasilat\u0131 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7ir\u0259n \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259rin r\u0259qab\u0259t m\u00fchind\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 il\u0259 bazara t\u0259sir edir \u2013 bu, s\u0131rf bazar al\u0259tidi. Amma OPEK v\u0259 Rusiya istehsala kvota t\u0259yin etm\u0259kl\u0259, dolay\u0131s\u0131 il\u0259 qiym\u0259t m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n etm\u0259kl\u0259 administrativ m\u00fcdaxil\u0259 edir. Amma o t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n d\u0259 g\u00f6rd\u00fck ki, OPEC hasilat\u0131 1,8 milyon barel azaltd\u0131, AB\u015e 1,5 milyon barel art\u0131rd\u0131. Sad\u0259c\u0259, AB\u015e-\u0131n bazara t\u0259sir imkan\u0131 ona g\u00f6r\u0259 yoxdur ki, hasilat \u00e7ox s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 artd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu hasilat\u0131 z\u0259ruri t\u0259l\u0259b \u00fcnvanlar\u0131na \u00e7atd\u0131racaq infrastrukturun qurulmas\u0131 onunla ayaqla\u015fa bilmir. Proqnozlara g\u00f6r\u0259, 2019-cu ild\u0259 infrastruktur problemi tam h\u0259llini tapacaq. Bu m\u0259nada neft bazar\u0131n\u0131n g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yi uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli d\u00f6vrd\u0259 yax\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcr. Yax\u0131n 5-10 ild\u0259 olsa bel\u0259, alternativ enerji s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 art\u0131r, \u0259n yax\u015f\u0131 halda 2025-ci il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r perspektiv g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr. Bizim h\u00f6kum\u0259t q\u0259bul etm\u0259lidir ki, iqtisadi r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259ri siyasil\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259kl\u0259 uza\u011fa getm\u0259k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacaq. Ger\u00e7\u0259k, dayanaql\u0131 iqtisadi aktivlik \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn r\u0259qab\u0259tqabiliyy\u0259tli iqtisadiyyat qurulmal\u0131d\u0131r. Neftin rolu il\u0259 deyil, biliyin v\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k texnologiyan\u0131n roluyla dayan\u0131ql\u0131 iqtisadi aktivlik formala\u015fa bil\u0259r. Biz 2005-2015-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259n d\u0259rs \u00e7\u0131xarmal\u0131y\u0131q, biz bu tarixi kitablardan oxumad\u0131q, \u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz ya\u015fad\u0131q. B\u00f6y\u00fck pullar g\u0259ldi, aktivlik yarand\u0131, amma pullar k\u0259sil\u0259nd\u0259n 4-5 ay sonra hans\u0131 s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 aktivlik yaranm\u0131\u015fd\u0131sa, h\u0259min s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 enm\u0259 ba\u015flad\u0131.\n<\/p>\n

\n –
\n
\n
\n B\u0259lk\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259tin arxay\u0131n\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 TAP v\u0259 TANAP layih\u0259l\u0259ri il\u0259 \u0259laq\u0259dard\u0131r? \u018fsas varm\u0131 bu arxay\u0131nl\u0131\u011fa?
\n <\/i>
\n <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n -Son vaxtlar h\u00f6rm\u0259t etdiyim ekspertl\u0259rin d\u0259 \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 izl\u0259yir\u0259m, \u00e7ox eyforik b\u0259yanatlar verirl\u0259r ki, h\u0259min layih\u0259l\u0259r iqtisadyyata b\u00f6y\u00fck qazanclar g\u0259tir\u0259c\u0259k. Ancaq m\u0259nz\u0259r\u0259ni bilm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn b\u00f6y\u00fck m\u00fct\u0259x\u0259ssis olma\u011fa ehtiyac yoxdur. Adi bir misal, 2017-ci ild\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan 7,5 milyard kubmetr qaz sat\u0131b v\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259y\u0259 1 milyard 150 milyon dollar v\u0259sait daxil olub. T\u0259xmin\u0259n 1 kubmetr qaz 150 dollara sat\u0131l\u0131b. Hesab ed\u0259k ki, h\u0259min r\u0259q\u0259m yax\u0131n d\u00f6vr \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 2 d\u0259f\u0259 art\u0131r, 2025-30-cu ill\u0259r\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r Az\u0259rbaycan 20 milyard kubmetrd\u0131n art\u0131q qaz satmayacaq. D\u0259qiq proqnoz ver\u0259 bilm\u0259s\u0259k d\u0259, indiki qiym\u0259tl\u0259rl\u0259 g\u00f6t\u00fcrs\u0259k, 7,5 milyard kubmetr 1 milyard 150 milyon qaz g\u0259tirirs\u0259, bu r\u0259q\u0259m 2 d\u0259f\u0259d\u0259n d\u0259 \u00e7ox artanda 2,5-3 milyard g\u0259lir dem\u0259kdir. 3 milyard dollar\u0131n 15 faiz\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259ri \u2013 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 350-450 milyon dollar\u0131 maya d\u0259y\u0259ridir. N\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131n ki, ilkin d\u00f6vrd\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259ri qaytarmaq laz\u0131md\u0131r.\u00a02016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycan 970 milyon dollarl\u0131q qaz sat\u0131b, amma \u201c\u015eahd\u0259niz\u201d yata\u011f\u0131ndan Neft Fonduna c\u0259mi 60 milyon dollar daxil olub. \u00c7\u00fcnki qoyulan investisiyan\u0131 qaytarmaq laz\u0131md\u0131r. Eyni v\u0259ziyy\u0259t neft sat\u0131\u015f\u0131nda da oldu, ilkin m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259d\u0259 investisiyan\u0131 qaytard\u0131q, sonra qiym\u0259t s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259 artd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259t neftin\u0259 \u00e7ox tez \u00e7\u0131xa bildik. Ona g\u00f6r\u0259 4-5 il g\u00f6zl\u0259m\u0259liyik ki, qiym\u0259tl\u0259r yax\u015f\u0131 olsa, qoyulan investisiyan\u0131 qaytars\u0131n, \u0259n nikbin yana\u015fmalarla baxd\u0131qda, 2025-ci ild\u0259n sonra 1,5-2 milyard g\u00f6t\u00fcrm\u0259k imkan\u0131 yaran\u0131r. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, 2010-13-c\u00fc ill\u0259r Az\u0259rbaycan\u0131n t\u0259kc\u0259 Neft Fondu vasit\u0259sil\u0259 neftd\u0259n 17-18 milyard dollar g\u0259lir g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fcy\u00fc zamanlar oldu. Bu, o dem\u0259kdir ki, yax\u0131n 10 ild\u0259 qaz\u0131n g\u0259tirdiyi v\u0259saitin pik h\u0259cmi neftd\u0259n g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fcy\u00fc pik m\u0259bl\u0259\u011fin \u0259n yax\u015f\u0131 halda 20-25 faizi ola bil\u0259r. \u018fg\u0259r o q\u0259d\u0259r neft g\u0259lirl\u0259ri hesab\u0131na h\u00f6kum\u0259t sosial bax\u0131mdan insanlara rifah \u015f\u0259raiti qura, dayan\u0131ql\u0131 v\u0259 insan kapital\u0131na \u0259saslanan iqtisadiyyat yarada bilm\u0259dis\u0259, qat-qat az g\u0259lir g\u0259tir\u0259c\u0259k qaz sektoruna bel ba\u011flama \u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc niy\u0259 inand\u0131raq ki?\n<\/p>\n

\n –
\n
\n
\n Yekun olaraq, D\u00f6vl\u0259t Statistika Komit\u0259sinin son m\u0259lumat\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259, bu ilin yanvar-may aylar\u0131nda \u00dcDM-in, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n qeyri-neft \u00dcDM-in art\u0131m tempi yanvar-aprel ay\u0131 il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb. Ancaq ba\u015f bankir iqtisadi y\u00fcks\u0259li\u015fd\u0259n dan\u0131\u015f\u0131r\u2026
\n <\/i>
\n <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n – M\u00fcqayis\u0259ni el\u0259 aparmayaq. Ola bil\u0259r, may ay\u0131nda temp bir az a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb v\u0259 bunun n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 ilin 4 ay\u0131n\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259si 5 ay\u0131n\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 bir q\u0259d\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259k olub. \u018fg\u0259r bu proses n\u00f6vb\u0259ti aylarda davaml\u0131 olarsa, o zaman iqtisadi eni\u015f haqda dan\u0131\u015fmaq m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacaq. \u0130ndiki halda is\u0259 h\u0259l\u0259lik ili ill\u0259, r\u00fcb\u00fc-r\u00fcbl\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259 etm\u0259k daha do\u011fru olard\u0131. Baxmal\u0131y\u0131q ki, bu ilin yanvar-may ay\u0131nda \u00f6t\u0259n ilin eyni d\u00f6vr\u00fc il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 nec\u0259 olub? \u0130ndiki situasiyada, tikinti sektorunun bu \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 geni\u015fl\u0259ndiyi bir zamanda iqtisadi tempin \u00f6t\u0259n il\u0259 nisb\u0259t\u0259n az olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259mir\u0259m. Amma \u0259vv\u0259l d\u0259 dedim, \u00f6n\u0259mli olan tempin s\u0259viyy\u0259si deyil, \u00f6n\u0259mli olan tempin hans\u0131 m\u0259nb\u0259 hesab\u0131na t\u0259min olunmas\u0131d\u0131r. Proses biznes, ev t\u0259s\u0259rr\u00fcfatlar\u0131 hesab\u0131na inki\u015faf edir, yoxsa h\u00f6kum\u0259tin d\u0259st\u0259yi hesab\u0131na? \u00d6n\u0259mli olan bu sual\u0131n cavab\u0131d\u0131r. Arzulonand\u0131r ki, uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli v\u0259 dayan\u0131ql\u0131 inki\u015faf ev t\u0259s\u0259rr\u00fcfatlar\u0131 v\u0259 biznes hesab\u0131na olsun. \u00c7\u00fcnki ev t\u0259s\u0259rr\u00fcfatlar\u0131 v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015flard\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnki onlar \u00f6z istehlaklar\u0131n\u0131 dol\u011fun s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 \u00f6d\u0259dikd\u0259n sonra y\u0131\u011f\u0131mlar\u0131 qal\u0131rsa, investisiyaya \u00e7evirirl\u0259r. Eyni qaydada da biznes. Amma bunlar m\u0259hdud olanda, d\u00f6vl\u0259t investisiya edir, halbuki, d\u00f6vl\u0259tin imkan neft\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan h\u00fcdudsuz deyil. Sabah neftin qiym\u0259ti 40 dollara d\u00fc\u015fs\u0259, 2015-ci ilin taleyini ya\u015famal\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131q. Buna iqtisadi n\u0259z\u0259riyy\u0259d\u0259 h\u0259m d\u0259 \u201cs\u0131x\u0131\u015fd\u0131rma effekti\u201d deyirl\u0259r v\u0259 m\u0259nfi planda i\u015fl\u0259nir. H\u00f6kum\u0259t m\u0259murlar\u0131n timsal\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00fcn t\u0259\u015f\u0259bb\u00fcs\u00fc \u0259lin\u0259 g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcr, biznesi v\u0259 onun s\u0259rmay\u0259l\u0259rini s\u0131x\u0131\u015fd\u0131r\u0131b k\u00fcnc\u0259 q\u0131snay\u0131r. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 is\u0259 bizim g\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcnd\u0259ki iqtisadi model yaran\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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