{"id":183644,"date":"2017-04-11T23:31:11","date_gmt":"2017-04-11T23:31:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/article\/hokumete-qarsi-mubarize-strategiyasi\/"},"modified":"2017-04-11T23:31:11","modified_gmt":"2017-04-11T23:31:11","slug":"hokumete-qarsi-mubarize-strategiyasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/hokumete-qarsi-mubarize-strategiyasi\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u00f6kum\u0259t\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcbariz\u0259 strategiyas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n \"Nahid
\n Nahid C\u0259f\u0259rov
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\n \"Nahid
\n Nahid C\u0259f\u0259rov – banner
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\n D\u00fczg\u00fcn strategiyan\u0131n haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u0259n birinci qanunu ondan ibar\u0259tdir ki, biz m\u00fcxalif\u0259t olaraq m\u00fcbariz\u0259 apard\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z iqtidar\u0131 d\u00fczg\u00fcn tan\u0131mal\u0131y\u0131q v\u0259 onun imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczg\u00fcn qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259liyik. \u018fks t\u0259qdird\u0259 xalq reall\u0131qla ayaqla\u015fmayan strategiyadan do\u011fan yaln\u0131\u015f add\u0131mlar\u0131n qurban\u0131 olur.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u0130lkin olaraq \u018fliyev rejimini bir ne\u00e7\u0259 c\u0259h\u0259td\u0259n analiz ed\u0259k.\n<\/p>\n

\n Maddi-maliyy\u0259\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n \u00d6lk\u0259d\u0259ki iqtisadi durumun \u00e7\u0259tin v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259 olmas\u0131na baxmayaraq, m\u00fcxalif\u0259t\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 b\u00f6y\u00fck pullar x\u0259rcl\u0259nm\u0259kd\u0259dir. Bir \u00e7oxu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr ki, iqtisadi dayaqlar s\u0131radan \u00e7\u0131xd\u0131qca, h\u00f6kum\u0259t v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti n\u0259zar\u0259td\u0259 saxlaya bilm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k v\u0259 \u0259n yax\u015f\u0131 halda \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259n qa\u00e7\u0131b ged\u0259c\u0259k. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 ondan ibar\u0259tdir ki, iqtisadi sah\u0259d\u0259 olan \u00e7\u0259tinlik \u018fliyevl\u0259r ail\u0259sinin g\u0259lirl\u0259rin\u0259 he\u00e7 bir t\u0259sir etmir v\u0259 bu g\u0259lirl\u0259rd\u0259n muxalif\u0259t\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 x\u0259rcl\u0259nm\u0259kd\u0259dir. Az\u0259rbaycan D\u00f6vl\u0259t Neft Fondunun illik hesabatlar\u0131na inansaq, neft g\u0259lirl\u0259rind\u0259n \u0259ld\u0259 edilmi\u015f v\u0259saitin b\u00f6y\u00fck bir hiss\u0259si xarici bazarlarda d\u00f6vriyy\u0259 etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yenid\u0259n \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259n \u00e7\u0131xar\u0131l\u0131r. Hesabata g\u00f6r\u0259, 2015-ci ild\u0259 neft fondunda v\u0259siat 33.57 milyard AB\u015e dollar\u0131 olub. Bu m\u0259bl\u0259\u011fin 7229.1 milyon AB\u015e dollar\u0131 (21.5%) neft v\u0259 qaz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u0259ld\u0259 edil\u0259n m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259t kimi g\u00f6st\u0259rilib. Lakin Neft Fondunun v\u0259saitl\u0259rinin idar\u0259 edilm\u0259sind\u0259n \u0259ld\u0259 edil\u0259n m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259t is\u0259 425,4 $ milyondur.\n<\/p>\n

\n Neft Fondunun v\u0259saitl\u0259rinin idar\u0259 edilm\u0259si dedikd\u0259 is\u0259 neft fondunun g\u0259lirl\u0259ri hesab\u0131na qoyulmu\u015f investisiyalardan \u0259ld\u0259 edil\u0259n m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259t n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulur. Bura d\u00fcnyan\u0131n tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f indeksl\u0259rin\u0259 (S&P 100, MSCI World v\u0259 MSCI Europe ex UK), xarici d\u00f6vl\u0259t isteqrazlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, dig\u0259r \u00f6z\u0259l s\u0259hml\u0259r v\u0259 xaricd\u0259 (Moskva, London, Paris, Seul, Tokio) yerl\u0259\u015f\u0259n da\u015f\u0131nmaz \u0259mlaka qoyulan investisiyalardan \u0259ld\u0259 olunan g\u0259lirl\u0259r daxildir. Bu g\u0259lirl\u0259r neftin qiym\u0259tind\u0259n birba\u015fa as\u0131l\u0131 deyil. \u00d6lk\u0259d\u0259 \u015f\u0259ffafl\u0131\u011f\u0131n m\u00f6vcud olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaraq, bu pullar\u0131n birba\u015fa \u018fliyevl\u0259rin \u015f\u0259xsi hesablar\u0131na axd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ehtimal etm\u0259k olar. Sad\u0259c\u0259 bir sah\u0259nin analizi \u018fliyevl\u0259rin maliyy\u0259 durumunun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fcy\u00fc kimi ac\u0131nacaql\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Bura g\u00f6mr\u00fckd\u0259n daxil olan v\u0259saiti, \u018fliyevl\u0259rin birba\u015fa n\u0259zar\u0259t etdiyi sah\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n \u0259ld\u0259 olunan g\u0259lirl\u0259ri v\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 y\u0131\u011f\u0131lan r\u00fc\u015fv\u0259ti d\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 ets\u0259k, m\u00fcxalif\u0259t\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 vuru\u015fmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn x\u0259rcl\u0259n\u0259c\u0259k maliyy\u0259 v\u0259saitl\u0259rinin t\u00fck\u0259nm\u0259si haqq\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u0259y\u0259 \u0259sas vermir.\n<\/p>\n

\n Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, f\u0259rz ed\u0259k ki, \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 100 min polis \u0259m\u0259kda\u015f\u0131 var. H\u0259r bir polis \u0259m\u0259kda\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ayl\u0131q maa\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 1000 manat oldu\u011funu g\u00fcman ets\u0259k, 100 min polisi saxlamaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn h\u00f6kum\u0259t\u0259 ild\u0259 t\u0259qribi 704 milyon AB\u015e dollar\u0131 maliyy\u0259 v\u0259saiti laz\u0131md\u0131r. Lakin sad\u0259c\u0259 neft v\u0259 qaz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u0259ld\u0259 edil\u0259n m\u0259nf\u0259\u0259t 7 milyard AB\u015e dollar\u0131ndan \u00e7oxdur. Dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n, b\u00fct\u00fcn maliyy\u0259 kanallar\u0131 ba\u011flanm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu t\u0259qdird\u0259, m\u00fcxalif\u0259tin \u00e7\u00f6kd\u00fcr\u00fclm\u0259si \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bu kanallardan axan g\u0259lirl\u0259rin istifad\u0259si m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. \u018fhalinin g\u00fcz\u0259ran\u0131na t\u0259sir ed\u0259n \u00f6lk\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131 is\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259tind\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn neftin ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131 d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sind\u0259n maliyy\u0259l\u0259\u015f\u0259n \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259rin g\u00fcz\u0259ran\u0131na sars\u0131d\u0131c\u0131 z\u0259rb\u0259 endirib. Y\u0259ni, \u0259halinin iqtisadi durumunun pisl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si \u018fliyevin g\u0259lirl\u0259rin\u0259 t\u0259sir etmir v\u0259 al\u0131nan xarici borclar da m\u0259hz \u00f6lk\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131na yat\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn istifad\u0259 edilm\u0259si ehtimal edilir.\n<\/p>\n

\n G\u00fcc strukturlar\u0131\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n \u018fliyevin n\u0259zar\u0259tind\u0259 olan g\u00fcc orqanlar\u0131 f\u0259aliyy\u0259tinin \u0259hat\u0259 dair\u0259sin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 qruplara b\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcr:\n<\/p>\n

\n 1. D\u00f6vl\u0259t T\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizliyi Xidm\u0259ti (ke\u00e7mi\u015f MTN). Bu orqan\u0131n f\u0259aliyy\u0259t mexanizmi dig\u0259r g\u00fcc strukturlar\u0131 il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 f\u0259rql\u0259nir. Burada \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259r daha \u00e7ox gizli f\u0259aliyy\u0259t g\u00f6st\u0259rir v\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanda faktiki olaraq h\u0259r bir \u015f\u0259xsi internet \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259n izl\u0259m\u0259 qabiliyy\u0259tin\u0259 malikdir. Bu struktura malik olan texnikalar da \u0259sas\u0259n izl\u0259m\u0259 v\u0259 m\u00fcxalif\u0259t n\u00fcmay\u0259nd\u0259l\u0259rini t\u0259qib etm\u0259 m\u0259qs\u0259din\u0259 xidm\u0259t edir. Bu xidm\u0259td\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u0259m\u0259kda\u015flar\u0131n b\u00f6y\u00fck \u0259ks\u0259riyy\u0259ti haz\u0131rk\u0131 rejim\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 loyald\u0131r. \u018fsas\u0259n gizli f\u0259aliyy\u0259t g\u00f6st\u0259rm\u0259l\u0259ri d\u0259 onlar\u0131 ictimai q\u0131naq obyektin\u0259 \u00e7evrilm\u0259kd\u0259n qoruyur. Bu s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n d\u0259 hal-haz\u0131rda bu t\u0259\u015fkilat\u0131n f\u0259aliyy\u0259ti y\u00fcks\u0259k s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 t\u0259\u015fkil olunub.<\/p>\n

T\u0259\u015fkilat\u0131n z\u0259if yeri: T\u0259\u015fkilat eyni zamanda m\u0259hdud sayda insanlar\u0131 n\u0259zar\u0259td\u0259 saxlaya bilir. \u0130nsanlar\u0131n f\u0259aliyy\u0259ti xaricd\u0259 yerl\u0259\u015f\u0259n bir m\u0259rk\u0259zd\u0259n koordinasiya olunacaqsa, k\u00fctl\u0259vil\u0259\u015f\u0259n f\u0259aliyy\u0259tin n\u0259zar\u0259td\u0259 saxlamaq m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacaqd\u0131r.<\/p>\n

2. Daxili \u0130\u015fl\u0259r Nazirliyi. Beyn\u0259lxalq t\u0259\u015fkilatlar\u0131n t\u0259qdim etdiyi hesabata \u0259saslansaq (r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259rin reall\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0259ks etdirm\u0259y\u0259 bil\u0259r), Az\u0259rbaycanda 45 min polis \u0259m\u0259kda\u015f\u0131 f\u0259aliyy\u0259t g\u00f6st\u0259rir. Lakin h\u0259r hans\u0131 bir t\u0259\u015fkilat\u0131n t\u0259qdim etdiyi m\u0259lumat h\u00f6kum\u0259t t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n t\u0259qdim edil\u0259n r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259r\u0259 s\u00f6yk\u0259nir. Bel\u0259 olan halda, Az\u0259rbaycanda polisl\u0259rin say\u0131n\u0131n daha \u00e7ox oldu\u011funu ehtimal etm\u0259k olar. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, Az\u0259rbaycanda f\u0259rqli m\u0259qs\u0259dl\u0259r \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yarad\u0131lm\u0131\u015f v\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n d\u0259 mitinql\u0259rin yat\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn geni\u015f istifad\u0259 olunan \u018flahidd\u0259 \u00c7evik Polis Alay\u0131, Karantin T\u0259dbirl\u0259rinin T\u0259min Ed\u0259n Polis D\u0259st\u0259si, daxili qo\u015funlar, post patrul xidm\u0259ti \u0259m\u0259kda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n say\u0131n\u0131n birlikd\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alsaq, bu r\u0259q\u0259mi 2 d\u0259f\u0259 art\u0131rmaq olar. Bu orqanlarda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259rin b\u00f6y\u00fck \u0259ks\u0259riyy\u0259ti orta t\u0259hsilli, bilik s\u0259viyy\u0259l\u0259ri is\u0259 orta t\u0259hsil s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bu \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259rin \u0259ks\u0259riyy\u0259ti \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fct\u0259madi olaraq t\u0259liml\u0259r ke\u00e7irilir v\u0259 onlara xarici \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 polisl\u0259 m\u00fclki \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259rin toqqu\u015fmas\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 video t\u0259qdimatlar g\u00f6st\u0259rilir. Mitinqd\u0259 toplanan insanlara qar\u015f\u0131 polisin amans\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da h\u0259qiq\u0259t\u0259n ona deyil\u0259n na\u011f\u0131llara inanmas\u0131 il\u0259 izah oluna bil\u0259r. Polisl\u0259rin b\u00f6y\u00fck \u0259ks\u0259riyy\u0259ti h\u0259qiq\u0259t\u0259n d\u0259 inan\u0131r ki, m\u00fcxalif\u0259t \u00f6lk\u0259ni qar\u0131\u015fd\u0131rmaq ist\u0259yir v\u0259 buna g\u00f6r\u0259 d\u0259 bir \u00e7ox xarici d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259rd\u0259n maliyy\u0259 d\u0259st\u0259yi al\u0131r. Lakin buna baxmayaraq, bu orqanlardan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan insanlar\u0131n loyall\u0131\u011f\u0131 DTX \u0259m\u0259kda\u015flar\u0131 il\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259d\u0259 daha z\u0259ifdir.\n<\/p>\n

\n Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, Daxili \u0130\u015fl\u0259r Nazirliyinin istifad\u0259sind\u0259 olan maddi-texniki t\u0259minat\u0131 da n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259n qa\u00e7\u0131rmaq olmaz. D\u0130N-in r\u0259smi internet s\u0259hif\u0259sin\u0259 istinad ets\u0259k, daxili qo\u015funlar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutulmu\u015f maddi-texniki resurslar\u0131n s\u0131ralar\u0131na zirehli ma\u015f\u0131nlar\u0131n, m\u00fcasir at\u0131c\u0131 silahlar\u0131n \u0259lav\u0259 edildiyini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f olar\u0131q. D\u0130N-in r\u0259smi internet s\u0259hif\u0259sind\u0259 deyilir: \u201c…d\u00f6y\u00fc\u015f t\u0259liminin v\u0259 d\u00f6y\u00fc\u015f haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcks\u0259k s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 saxlan\u0131lmas\u0131, h\u0259rbi qulluq\u00e7ular\u0131n pe\u015f\u0259karl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcasir standartlara uy\u011fun yeni avtomobill\u0259rl\u0259, zirehli texnikalarla, helikopterl\u0259rl\u0259, ki\u00e7ik v\u0259 iri\u00e7apl\u0131 at\u0131c\u0131 silahlarla t\u0259min olunmu\u015fdur. D\u00f6y\u00fc\u015f haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcks\u0259ldilm\u0259si v\u0259 ke\u00e7iril\u0259n t\u0259liml\u0259rin effektivliyinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 m\u0259qs\u0259dil\u0259 t\u0259lim \u015f\u0259h\u0259rcikl\u0259ri tikil\u0259r\u0259k istifad\u0259y\u0259 verilmi\u015fdir\u201d.\n<\/p>\n

\n Bu m\u0259lumat Stokholm Beyn\u0259lxalq S\u00fclh Ara\u015fd\u0131rmalar\u0131 \u0130nstitutunun illik hesabat\u0131nda da \u0259ks olunub. Hesabatda deyilir ki, Az\u0259rbaycan \u0130sraild\u0259n 250 \u0259d\u0259d m\u00fcxt\u0259lif markal\u0131 zirehli ma\u015f\u0131n, 250 \u0259d\u0259d m\u00fcxt\u0259lif \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcd\u0259 iri\u00e7apl\u0131 silahlar, 150 \u0259d\u0259d BTR, 100-d\u0259n \u00e7ox m\u00fcxt\u0259lif t\u0259yinatl\u0131 tank\u0131n al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 qeyd edib.\n<\/p>\n

\n T\u0259\u015fkilat\u0131n z\u0259if yeri: Daim q\u0131naq obyekitin\u0259 \u00e7evrilm\u0259kd\u0259n \u00e7\u0259kinirl\u0259r. Ald\u0131qlar\u0131 \u0259m\u0259k haqq\u0131 getdikc\u0259 d\u0259y\u0259rini itirm\u0259kd\u0259dir. \u018fks\u0259riyy\u0259ti kas\u0131b ail\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n g\u0259ldiyi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn c\u0259miyy\u0259td\u0259ki probleml\u0259rin bir \u00e7oxu il\u0259 rastla\u015f\u0131rlar. M\u00fcxalif\u0259tin s\u0259mimiyy\u0259tin\u0259 v\u0259 etiraz aksiyalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f yolu oldu\u011funa inanmasalar da, \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259ki real v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti DTX \u0259m\u0259kda\u015flar\u0131na nisb\u0259t\u0259n daha \u00e7ox anlay\u0131rlar. \u00d6lk\u0259 \u0259razisind\u0259 eyni vaxta k\u00fctl\u0259vi aksiyalar t\u0259\u015fkil olundu\u011fu halda bu t\u0259\u015fkilat\u0131n hadis\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 t\u0259sir imkanlar\u0131 minimuma enir.\n<\/p>\n

\n 3. M\u00fcdafi\u0259 Nazirliyi: Bu qurum v\u0259ziyy\u0259t tam n\u0259zar\u0259td\u0259n \u00e7\u0131xd\u0131qda hadis\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 m\u00fcdaxil\u0259 ed\u0259 bil\u0259r.\n<\/p>\n

\n T\u0259\u015fkilat\u0131n z\u0259if yeri: Xalq\u0131n i\u00e7ind\u0259n \u00e7\u0131xm\u0131\u015f \u0259sg\u0259rl\u0259r xalqa qar\u015f\u0131 asanl\u0131qla m\u00fcbariz\u0259y\u0259 qalxmaz.
\n
\n 4. F\u00f6vq\u0259lad\u0259 Hallar Nazirliyi: Bu qurumun maddi-texniki t\u0259minat\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 m\u0259lumatlar ictimaiyy\u0259t\u0259 m\u0259lum deyil.
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\n T\u0259\u015fkilat\u0131n z\u0259if yeri: Mitinq yat\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn kifay\u0259t q\u0259d\u0259r resurs v\u0259 t\u0259cr\u00fcb\u0259y\u0259 malik deyill\u0259r.
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\n 5. Prezidentin \u015f\u0259xsi muhafiz\u0259si: Bu qurumda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u0259m\u0259kda\u015flar\u0131n say\u0131 az olsa da, prezident\u0259 loyall\u0131\u011f\u0131 il\u0259 se\u00e7il\u0259n x\u00fcsusi bir orqand\u0131r. Prezidenti qorumaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn b\u00fct\u00fcn vasit\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 \u0259l atma\u011fa haz\u0131rd\u0131rlar.
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\n T\u0259\u015fkilat\u0131n z\u0259if yeri: Saylar\u0131n m\u0259hdud olmalar\u0131.\n<\/p>\n

\n Media\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n \u00d6lk\u0259d\u0259 f\u0259aliyy\u0259t g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259n b\u00fct\u00fcn media qurumlar\u0131 hakimiyy\u0259t t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n n\u0259zar\u0259td\u0259dir v\u0259 hakimiyy\u0259tin \u00f6mr\u00fcn\u00fcn uzad\u0131lmas\u0131na xidm\u0259t edir. Xalq\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn m\u0259n\u0259vi d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259rin\u0131n da\u011f\u0131d\u0131lmas\u0131na xidm\u0259t ed\u0259n media \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 9 milyon \u0259halini birl\u0259\u015fdir\u0259 bil\u0259c\u0259k b\u00fct\u00fcn ba\u011flar\u0131 q\u0131rmaqdad\u0131r. \u00d6lk\u0259d\u0259 k\u00fctl\u0259vi savads\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaraq, \u0259halinin b\u00f6y\u00fck bir hiss\u0259si bu media kanallar\u0131 vasit\u0259sil\u0259 \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcl\u0259n saxta m\u0259lumatlar\u0131n t\u0259siri alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr.\n<\/p>\n

\n Az\u0259rbaycanda f\u0259aliyy\u0259t mexanizmini qoruyub saxlayan bu t\u0259\u015fkilatlar\u0131n \u0259sas m\u0259qs\u0259di \u018fliyev diktaturas\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcdafi\u0259 etm\u0259kdir. Bu t\u0259\u015fkilatlar\u0131n b\u00f6y\u00fck \u0259zml\u0259 qorudu\u011fu bir \u015f\u0259xs\u0259 (prezident\u0259) qar\u015f\u0131 xalq\u0131 birba\u015fa s\u0259f\u0259rb\u0259r etm\u0259k resurslar\u0131n bo\u015f yer\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259nm\u0259sidir.\n<\/p>\n

\n Hakimiyy\u0259tin psixoloji durumu\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n Hakimiyy\u0259ti qeyri-qanuni yolla \u0259l\u0259 ke\u00e7irmi\u015f \u0130lham \u018fliyevin \u0259li bu xalq\u0131n qan\u0131na bat\u0131b. Hakimiyy\u0259td\u0259n getdiyi t\u0259qdird\u0259 \u0259lind\u0259ki g\u00fccd\u0259n \u0259lav\u0259 \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn v\u0259 ail\u0259sinin h\u0259yat\u0131n\u0131 itirm\u0259k ehtimal\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaraq, hakimiyy\u0259ti saxlamaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn b\u00fct\u00fcn vasit\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 \u0259l atacaq. \u018fli qana batm\u0131\u015f bir insan\u0131n dirs\u0259yinin d\u0259 qana batmas\u0131 onun\u00e7\u00fcn bir \u015fey d\u0259yi\u015fmir.
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\n \u00d6lk\u0259d\u0259n qa\u00e7maq hadis\u0259l\u0259rin n\u0259zar\u0259td\u0259n \u00e7\u0131xd\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u0259min olandan sonra m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Yuxar\u0131da qeyd edil\u0259n strukturlar da bu ehtimal\u0131n da\u011f\u0131d\u0131lmas\u0131na v\u0259 gedi\u015fat\u0131 n\u0259zar\u0259td\u0259 saxlan\u0131lmas\u0131na xidm\u0259t edir.\n<\/p>\n

\n Beyn\u0259lxalq m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259r\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n Beyn\u0259lxalq m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259rd\u0259 c\u0259r\u0259yan ed\u0259n haz\u0131rk\u0131 hadis\u0259l\u0259r is\u0259 \u0130lham \u018fliyev \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn b\u00f6y\u00fck umidl\u0259r v\u0259d edir. AB\u015e-da Tramp\u0131n prezident se\u00e7ilm\u0259si, Rusiyada Putinin \u018fliyev\u0259 d\u0259st\u0259yi v\u0259 dosluqdak\u0131 sadiqliyini B\u0259\u015f\u0259r \u018fs\u0259d\u0259 g\u00f6st\u0259rdiyi yard\u0131mla s\u00fcbut etm\u0259si, T\u00fcrkiy\u0259d\u0259 \u018frdo\u011fan\u0131n hakimiyy\u0259td\u0259 olmas\u0131 \u018fliyevin \u00fcmidl\u0259rini art\u0131r\u0131r. Qeyd etm\u0259k laz\u0131md\u0131r ki, Tramp\u0131n siyasi kursu daha \u00e7ox s\u00fcrprizl\u0259rl\u0259 m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 olundu\u011fundan AB\u015e prezidenti il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 konkret m\u00fclahiz\u0259l\u0259r ir\u0259li s\u00fcrm\u0259k \u00e7\u0259tindir. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, Az\u0259rbaycanda f\u0259aliyy\u0259t g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259n y\u00fczl\u0259rl\u0259 xarici \u015firk\u0259tl\u0259r \u018fliyev rejimi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn q\u0259rbd\u0259 aktiv lobbi\u00e7ilik f\u0259aliyy\u0259ti il\u0259 m\u0259\u015fquldurlar.\n<\/p>\n

\n Bel\u0259 olan halda \u0130lham \u018fliyev yaln\u0131z 1 m\u0259kanda t\u0259\u015fkil olunacaq v\u0259 h\u0259tta 100 min insan\u0131n bel\u0259 qat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 etiraz aksiyas\u0131n\u0131 yat\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yuxar\u0131da qeyd edil\u0259n institutlar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcnd\u0259n m\u0259rk\u0259zl\u0259\u015fdirilmi\u015f formada rahatl\u0131qla istifad\u0259 ed\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn bu g\u00fccl\u00fc t\u0259\u015fkilatlar\u0131n fonunda qeyd etm\u0259k laz\u0131md\u0131r ki, xalq h\u00f6kum\u0259t\u0259 nifr\u0259t edir v\u0259 xalq\u0131n birl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si yuxar\u0131da adlar\u0131 qeyd edilmi\u015f t\u0259\u015fkilatlar\u0131n f\u0259aliyy\u0259tini \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tsiz edir.\n<\/p>\n

\n Haz\u0131rk\u0131 u\u011fursuz m\u00fcbariz\u0259 strategiyalar\u0131\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n Haz\u0131rk\u0131 m\u00fcxalif\u0259t c\u0259bh\u0259sini iki qrupa ay\u0131rmaq olar: a) Q\u0259tiyy\u0259ti olan v\u0259 strategiyas\u0131 olmayan, b) strategiyas\u0131 olan, amma q\u0259tiyy\u0259ti olmayan.\n<\/p>\n

\n Haz\u0131rk\u0131 m\u00fcbariz\u0259 metodu is\u0259 b\u0259zi partiyalar t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n m\u00fcdafi\u0259 olunan icaz\u0259li mitinql\u0259rdir. Bel\u0259 bir imkanlar alt\u0131nda mitinq t\u0259\u015fkil etm\u0259k v\u0259 ora minl\u0259rl\u0259 insan\u0131 c\u0259lb etm\u0259yin \u00f6z\u00fc bir q\u0259hr\u0259manl\u0131qd\u0131r. Bunu danmaq olmaz. Lakin xalqa bu c\u00fcr q\u0259hr\u0259manl\u0131qlar laz\u0131m deyil, xalq\u0131 bu b\u00f6hrandan xilas etm\u0259k laz\u0131md\u0131r. H\u00f6kum\u0259t mitinq\u0259 icaz\u0259 ver\u0259rk\u0259n \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn arxaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259ri v\u0259 hadis\u0259l\u0259rin n\u0259zar\u0259td\u0259n \u00e7\u0131xd\u0131\u011f\u0131 anda d\u0259rhal n\u0259zar\u0259t ed\u0259 bilm\u0259 imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131r. Y\u0259ni \u0259g\u0259r h\u00f6kum\u0259t mitinq\u0259 icaz\u0259 verirs\u0259, dem\u0259k ki, he\u00e7 bir \u015feyin ba\u015f verm\u0259y\u0259c\u0259yin\u0259 \u0259mindir. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259 d\u0259 m\u00fcxt\u0259lif vasit\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 mitinq\u0259 qo\u015fulmaq ist\u0259y\u0259n insanlara mane\u0259l\u0259r yaradaraq muxalif\u0259ti x\u0259yal-q\u0131r\u0131ql\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011fratmaq ist\u0259yir. Bunu bacar\u0131r da.\n<\/p>\n

\n Mitinql\u0259rin icaz\u0259li v\u0259 ya icaz\u0259siz olmas\u0131ndan as\u0131l\u0131 olmayaraq, yaln\u0131z Bak\u0131da t\u0259\u015fkil olunacaq mitinql\u0259r h\u0259r zaman h\u00f6kum\u0259t\u0259 xeyir ver\u0259c\u0259k. \u0130caz\u0259siz mitinql\u0259r is\u0259 sad\u0259 v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015flar\u0131n qurban verilm\u0259sin\u0259 raz\u0131l\u0131q dem\u0259kdir. Qurban o d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 olmal\u0131d\u0131r ki, xarici q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259r m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259y\u0259 qar\u0131\u015fs\u0131n v\u0259 bel\u0259 olan halda \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259 Suriya yaranacaq. \u00c7\u00fcnki h\u0259r bir xarici d\u00f6vl\u0259tin \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn maraqlar\u0131 v\u0259 bu maraqlara qar\u015f\u0131 ged\u0259n dig\u0259r xarici d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259r var. Mitinq q\u0259rar\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fczakir\u0259 ed\u0259c\u0259k insanlar\u0131n \u0259ks\u0259riyy\u0259ti h\u0259ddind\u0259n art\u0131q strateji d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnc\u0259y\u0259 malik olan insanlar olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Mitinqin ke\u00e7irilm\u0259si il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 m\u00fct\u0259madi olaraq u\u011fursuz q\u0259rar q\u0259bul ed\u0259nl\u0259r (m\u0259n u\u011furu mitinq\u0259 g\u0259l\u0259n \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259rin say\u0131 il deyil, mitinqin n\u0259tic\u0259si il\u0259 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcr\u0259m), mitinqd\u0259n sonra mitinq\u0259 qo\u015fulan m\u0259hdud sayda insanlar\u0131n g\u00fcnah\u0131n\u0131 diktator rejimind\u0259 axtar\u0131rlar. Bu insanlar\u0131n he\u00e7 bir strateji d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnc\u0259y\u0259 malik olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan x\u0259b\u0259r verir. Prezident olacaqlar\u0131 t\u0259qdird\u0259 xalq\u0131n tale y\u00fckl\u00fc m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 dair q\u0259rarlar verm\u0259yi \u00fcz\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6t\u00fcrm\u0259y\u0259 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bu \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259r adi bir mitinql\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 avtoritar h\u00f6kum\u0259tin ata bil\u0259c\u0259yi add\u0131mlar\u0131 qabaqcadan ehtimal ed\u0259 bilmirl\u0259r (B\u0259lk\u0259 d\u0259 bilirl\u0259r, sad\u0259c\u0259 bundan yay\u0131nma\u011f\u0131n yollar\u0131n\u0131 bilmirl\u0259r).\n<\/p>\n

\n H\u0259r k\u0259s u\u011fursuzlu\u011fun g\u00fcnah\u0131n\u0131 partiya olaraq \u00f6z\u00fcnd\u0259 axtarmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u018fg\u0259r aksiyalara bir \u015f\u0259xs qo\u015fulmursa (buna statistikada – istisna (deviation) deyilir), bunun g\u00fcnah\u0131 h\u0259min o bir \u015f\u0259xsd\u0259dir. \u018fg\u0259r xalq olaraq bu aksiyaya qo\u015fulmursa, onda bunun institutsional s\u0259b\u0259bi var v\u0259 bu s\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259r ara\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu s\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259r ara\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmadan v\u0259 aradan qald\u0131r\u0131lmadan yeni aksiyalar\u0131n t\u0259\u015fkili \u00e7ar\u0259sizliyin v\u0259 s\u0259ri\u015ft\u0259sizliyin etiraf\u0131d\u0131r. Bel\u0259 \u015f\u0259raitd\u0259 t\u0259\u015fkil olunmu\u015f b\u00fct\u00fcn aksiyalar\u0131n bir m\u0259qs\u0259di olur: m\u0259suliyy\u0259td\u0259n yay\u0131nma. Bununla ba\u011fl\u0131 siyasi \u0259d\u0259biyyatda (blame avoidance) x\u00fcsusi bir termin var. Bu yana\u015fmaya g\u00f6r\u0259 insanlar b\u0259z\u0259n ittihamlardan (m\u00fcxalif\u0259t olaraq n\u0259 etmisiz) xilas olmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00f6zl\u0259rinin d\u0259 inanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcbariz\u0259 metoduna \u0259l at\u0131rlar. B\u0259zil\u0259ri h\u0259tta bunu vicdan\u0131 rahatladan vasit\u0259 kimi g\u00f6r\u00fcr. Amma unudurlar ki, bunun \u0259ziyy\u0259tini xalq \u00e7\u0259kir. Xalq\u0131 birl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259dikc\u0259, he\u00e7 bir demokratik proses qalib g\u0259l\u0259 bilm\u0259z.\n<\/p>\n

\n Bunu n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaraq h\u00f6kum\u0259t\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 yaln\u0131z bir m\u0259kanda t\u0259\u015fkil olunmu\u015f haz\u0131rl\u0131qs\u0131z (icaz\u0259li v\u0259 ya icaz\u0259siz) mitinq h\u00f6kum\u0259t\u0259 \u00f6z g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc geni\u015f xalqa g\u00f6st\u0259rm\u0259y\u0259 imkan verir. Bu g\u00fcc\u00fc yaln\u0131z polis zorak\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 il\u0259 g\u00f6st\u0259rm\u0259y\u0259 ehtiyac yoxdur. Qorxudan mitinq\u0259 g\u0259l\u0259n insanlar\u0131n say\u0131n\u0131n m\u0259hdud olmas\u0131 xalq t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n bu g\u00fcc\u00fcn t\u0259sdiqin\u0259 \u0259sas verir. Getm\u0259y\u0259nl\u0259r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr ki, yax\u015f\u0131 ki, getm\u0259mi\u015f\u0259m. Gets\u0259ydim bir \u015fey olmazd\u0131, onsuz da g\u0259l\u0259nl\u0259r \u00e7ox az olub. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 il\u0259 muxalif\u0259tin strateji c\u0259h\u0259td\u0259n \u0259sasland\u0131r\u0131lmayan v\u0259 yaln\u0131z Bak\u0131 \u015f\u0259h\u0259rind\u0259 t\u0259\u015fkil edilmi\u015f mitinqi vasit\u0259sil\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259t insanlar aras\u0131nda qorxunu maksimum \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 yayma\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Bundan \u0259lav\u0259, etiraz aksiyalar\u0131n\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259siz olmas\u0131 insanlarda \u00fcmidsizliyi v\u0259 m\u00fcxalif\u0259t\u0259 olan inams\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha da art\u0131r\u0131r. H\u0259r iki halda h\u00f6kum\u0259t qazan\u0131r, muxalif\u0259t v\u0259 xalq itirir. U\u011fursuzluqla \u00fczl\u0259\u015f\u0259n muxalif\u0259t is\u0259 g\u00fcnah\u0131 \u00f6z\u00fcnd\u0259n ba\u015fqa h\u0259r k\u0259sd\u0259 g\u00f6r\u00fcr.\n<\/p>\n

\n Dig\u0259r u\u011fursuz m\u00fcbariz\u0259 strategiyas\u0131 is\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259ti t\u0259nqid etm\u0259kl\u0259 m\u0259hdudla\u015fmaqd\u0131r. Bir \u00e7ox siyasi t\u0259\u015fkilatlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr ki, h\u00f6kum\u0259ti if\u015fa etm\u0259kl\u0259 xalq\u0131 t\u0259\u015fkilatland\u0131ra bil\u0259r. Bu s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n d\u0259 b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015flar m\u0259hz h\u00f6kum\u0259tin daha a\u011f\u0131ll\u0131 bir formada if\u015fas\u0131na y\u00f6n\u0259lib. O \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259r unudurlar ki, \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259ki problem h\u00f6kum\u0259t\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 olan qorxu v\u0259 m\u00fcxalif\u0259t\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 olan inams\u0131zl\u0131qd\u0131r. Bu iki problem h\u00f6kum\u0259ti if\u015fa etm\u0259kl\u0259 aradan qalxm\u0131r.\n<\/p>\n

\n Q\u0259tiyy\u0259ti olmayanlar is\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259ti t\u0259nqid etm\u0259y\u0259 (m\u0259n t\u0259nqidin \u0259leyhin\u0259 deyil\u0259m. H\u00f6kum\u0259t v\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259n d\u0259 prezident m\u00fctl\u0259q if\u015fa olunmal\u0131d\u0131r) c\u0259sar\u0259t etm\u0259dikd\u0259 m\u00fcbariz\u0259sini m\u00fcxalif\u0259ti t\u0259nqid etm\u0259kl\u0259 davam etdirirl\u0259r. Y\u0259ni biz pisik, amma bunlar bizd\u0259n d\u0259 pisdirl\u0259r. H\u0259r d\u0259f\u0259 daha radikal add\u0131mlar at\u0131b geri \u00e7\u0259kilm\u0259kl\u0259 h\u0259m \u00f6zl\u0259rini v\u0259 h\u0259m d\u0259 c\u0259miyy\u0259ti \u00e7a\u015fd\u0131r\u0131rlar. C\u0259miyy\u0259td\u0259 siyasi m\u00fcbariz\u0259nin u\u011furuna b\u00f6y\u00fck k\u00f6lg\u0259 sal\u0131rlar.\n<\/p>\n

\n Xalq\u0131 nec\u0259 birl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259k olar?\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n Bu suala cavab tapmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ilkin olaraq \u201cxalq niy\u0259 birl\u0259\u015fmir?\u201d sual\u0131na cavab tapmaq laz\u0131md\u0131r. Xalq\u0131 \u015f\u0259rti olaraq (Marksizm yana\u015fmas\u0131na zidd olaraq) iki hiss\u0259y\u0259 ay\u0131rmaq olar:\n<\/p>\n

\n 1. Hadis\u0259l\u0259rin gedi\u015fat\u0131na d\u00fczg\u00fcn qiym\u0259t verm\u0259yi bacaran insanlar (M\u0259n onlara ziyal\u0131lar deyir\u0259m),
\n
\n 2. Yaln\u0131z birinci kateqoriyada olan insanlar\u0131n fikirl\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00fcv\u0259n\u0259r\u0259k q\u0259rar q\u0259bul ed\u0259n insanlar.\n<\/p>\n

\n Y\u0259ni \u015e\u0259mkir rayon sakini Bak\u0131da (Hollandiyada) f\u0259aliyy\u0259t g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259n bir \u015f\u0259xs\u0259 inanmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u00f6z\u00fcn\u0259 yax\u0131n olan v\u0259 d\u00fcnyag\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u0259 etibar ed\u0259n bir \u015f\u0259xsin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259sin\u0259 g\u00fcv\u0259nir. Birinci qrupa aid olan insanlar partiyalara qo\u015fulmadan ikinci qrupa aid olan xalq\u0131 siyasi prosesl\u0259r\u0259 c\u0259lb etm\u0259k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn deyil. Bu prosesi siyasi \u0259d\u0259biyyatda Konstraktivizm (Constructivism) n\u0259z\u0259riyy\u0259sinin k\u00f6m\u0259yi il\u0259 daha m\u00fck\u0259mm\u0259l izah etm\u0259k olur.\n<\/p>\n

\n Birinci qrupa aid olan insanlar\u0131n qo\u015fulmamas\u0131n\u0131n \u0259n \u0259sas s\u0259b\u0259bi QORXU hissidir. Bu hiss iki s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n daha da g\u00fccl\u0259nir:\n<\/p>\n

\n 1. Siyasi t\u0259\u015fkilatlara olan inams\u0131zl\u0131q v\u0259 ya vertikal inams\u0131zl\u0131q. Onu etiraza \u00e7a\u011f\u0131ran siyasi partiya r\u0259hb\u0259rl\u0259rin\u0259 inanm\u0131r. Birinci qrupa aid olan insanlar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc il\u0259 baxsaq, \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259ki m\u00fcxalif\u0259t t\u0259\u015fkilatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u0259ks\u0259riyy\u0259tinin hakimiyy\u0259td\u0259ki siyasi q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n f\u0259rql\u0259nm\u0259diyinin \u015fahidi oluruq (Burada qeyd etdiyim fikirl\u0259r apard\u0131\u011f\u0131m sor\u011funun n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 \u0259saslan\u0131r). B\u0259zi m\u00fcxalif\u0259t partiyalar\u0131nda da hakimiyy\u0259td\u0259 oldu\u011fu kimi \u015f\u0259xsiyy\u0259t\u0259 p\u0259r\u0259sti\u015f ya bil\u0259r\u0259kd\u0259n v\u0259 ya da bilm\u0259y\u0259r\u0259kd\u0259n t\u0259bli\u011f olunur, f\u0259rqli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnc\u0259y\u0259 d\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fczl\u00fck v\u0259 t\u0259nqid ed\u0259nl\u0259ri d\u0259rhal dam\u011falamaq v\u0259 ittiham etm\u0259k, xalq\u0131 bu z\u00fcl\u00fcmd\u0259n xilas ed\u0259 bil\u0259n konkret bir strateji plan\u0131n olmamas\u0131, u\u011fursuzluqlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0259b\u0259bini r\u0259qibin g\u00fccl\u00fc olmas\u0131nda axtarmaq, siyasi m\u00fcbariz\u0259 tarixind\u0259 apard\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcbariz\u0259y\u0259 x\u0259yan\u0259t v\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259tl\u0259 i\u015fbirliyi (h\u00f6kum\u0259tin a\u00e7\u0131q \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 t\u0259rifi), b\u00fct\u00fcn m\u00fcbariz\u0259ni yaln\u0131z h\u00f6kum\u0259tin t\u0259nqidi il\u0259 m\u0259hdudla\u015fd\u0131rmaq, qeyri-pe\u015f\u0259karl\u0131q v\u0259 u\u011fursuz m\u00fcbariz\u0259 modelinin formala\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 v\u0259 s. Siyasi prosesl\u0259r\u0259 k\u0259nardan tama\u015fa ed\u0259n bu \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259r yuxar\u0131da sadalanan hallara g\u00f6r\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259t\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 s\u0259mimi m\u00fcbariz\u0259 aparan \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259rin s\u0259mimiyy\u0259tin\u0259 d\u0259 inanm\u0131rlar. Siyas\u0259t subyektiv yana\u015fmadan (perception) as\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. Bu yana\u015fman\u0131 d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259k is\u0259 \u00e7ox \u00e7\u0259tindir.\n<\/p>\n

\n 2. Qon\u015fusuna olan inams\u0131zl\u0131q v\u0259 ya horizontal inams\u0131zl\u0131q. Samir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr ki, m\u0259n ged\u0259r\u0259m R\u00fcst\u0259m v\u0259 ya Z\u00fcleyxa g\u0259lm\u0259z v\u0259 m\u0259n meydanda t\u0259k qalaram. Bel\u0259 olan halda Samir sa\u011f qalmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcbariz\u0259ni deyil, alternativl\u0259ri axtarmaq m\u0259cburiyy\u0259tind\u0259 qal\u0131r. Alternativl\u0259r t\u00fck\u0259ndiyi zaman, Samir intihara \u0259l at\u0131r. Bu s\u0259b\u0259bd\u0259n intiharlar\u0131n \u00e7oxalmas\u0131n\u0131n \u0259n \u0259sas s\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259rind\u0259n biri m\u00fcxalif\u0259tin u\u011fursuz siyasi m\u00fcbariz\u0259sidir. U\u011fursuz siyasi m\u00fcbariz\u0259 insanlarda d\u0259yi\u015fikliy\u0259 olan inams\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r v\u0259 intihar yegan\u0259 \u00fcsyan vasit\u0259sin\u0259 \u00e7evrilir.\n<\/p>\n

\n Qorxunun h\u0259r iki istiqam\u0259t\u0259 uy\u011fun aradan qald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn vacib olan yegan\u0259 amil inamd\u0131r. H\u0259r k\u0259s bilir ki, eyni vaxtda m\u00fcbariz\u0259y\u0259 qalxsa, diktaturadan xilas olmaq olar. V\u0259 ya konstraktivizm n\u0259z\u0259riyy\u0259sin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259, \u0259g\u0259r s\u0259h\u0259r h\u0259r k\u0259s (polisli v\u0259 m\u0259murlu) oyan\u0131b d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcns\u0259 v\u0259 buna inansa ki, \u018fliyev rejimi art\u0131q yoxdur, \u018fliyev rejimi art\u0131q olmayacaq. M\u0259hz bu inams\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6r\u0259 bu proses ba\u015f vermir. Siyasi t\u0259\u015fkilatlara qar\u015f\u0131 inams\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 aradan qald\u0131rmaq birba\u015fa siyasi partiyadan as\u0131l\u0131 olan bir prosesdir. Bunun \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 add\u0131mlar\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131 vacibdir:\n<\/p>\n

\n 1. Siyasi partiya ilkin olaraq \u00f6z\u00fcnd\u0259 demokratik d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259ri formala\u015fd\u0131rmal\u0131;
\n
\n 2. Xalq\u0131 bu rejimd\u0259n xilas etm\u0259nin real strategiyas\u0131n\u0131 ortaya qoymal\u0131;
\n
\n 3. Partiyadaxili saxtakarl\u0131\u011fa qar\u015f\u0131 k\u0259skin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc g\u00f6t\u00fcrm\u0259li;
\n
\n 4. Partiyan\u0131n proqramlar\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 bu proqramlar\u0131 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irm\u0259 yollar\u0131n\u0131 xalqa \u00e7atd\u0131rmal\u0131;
\n
\n 5. H\u00f6kum\u0259t\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcbariz\u0259d\u0259 q\u0259tiyy\u0259tli v\u0259 ard\u0131c\u0131l olmal\u0131;
\n
\n 6. \u015e\u0259xsiyy\u0259t\u0259 p\u0259r\u0259sti\u015flik v\u0259 liderlik institutunu partiya institutu il\u0259 \u0259v\u0259zl\u0259nm\u0259li. Xalq\u0131n xilas\u0131 bir \u015f\u0259xsd\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 yana\u015fmas\u0131ndan imtina edilm\u0259li v\u0259 komanda i\u015fi t\u0259qdim edilm\u0259lidir. Lider partiyaya xidm\u0259t etm\u0259lidir, partiya v\u0259 onun funksionerl\u0259ri lider\u0259 deyil.
\n
\n 7. Partiya d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259ri daim \u00f6n\u0259 \u00e7\u0259kilm\u0259li v\u0259 liderin davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 da bu d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259r \u0259sas\u0131nda formala\u015fmal\u0131;
\n
\n 8. \u0130nsanlar\u0131n beynind\u0259 xo\u015fb\u0259xt g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259yin virtual formada t\u0259sviri yarad\u0131lmal\u0131;
\n
\n 9. B\u00fct\u00fcn t\u0259nqidi fikirl\u0259r\u0259 a\u00e7\u0131q olmal\u0131;
\n
\n 10. Y\u00fcks\u0259k s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 pe\u015f\u0259karl\u0131q t\u0259siri ba\u011f\u0131\u015flanmal\u0131.\n<\/p>\n

\n Az\u0259rbaycanda b\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131 \u00f6z\u00fcnd\u0259 birl\u0259\u015fdir\u0259 bil\u0259n partiya tam yaranmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan v\u0259 ya yaranma prosesind\u0259 oldu\u011fundan t\u0259\u015fkilatlanma il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 ziyal\u0131 t\u0259b\u0259q\u0259nin 3 se\u00e7imi olur.\n<\/p>\n

\n a) Siyasi prosesl\u0259r\u0259 qo\u015fulmamaq v\u0259 hadis\u0259l\u0259rin gedi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131 izl\u0259m\u0259k;
\n
\n b) \u0130nanmad\u0131qlar\u0131 siyasi t\u0259\u015fkilata qo\u015fulmaq;
\n
\n c) Yenid\u0259n t\u0259\u015fkilat qurmaq.\n<\/p>\n

\n H\u0259r \u015feyi s\u0131f\u0131rdan ba\u015flamaq h\u0259dsiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 \u00e7\u0259tin oldu\u011fundan v\u0259 yaranm\u0131\u015f yeni siyasi q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 b\u0259zi m\u00fcxalif\u0259t t\u0259\u015fkilatlar\u0131n\u0131n q\u0131sqancl\u0131\u011f\u0131 v\u0259 qaralama t\u0259bli\u011fat\u0131n\u0131n apar\u0131lmas\u0131 yaln\u0131z birinci add\u0131m\u0131 lab\u00fcdl\u0259\u015fdirir. Yeni yaranm\u0131\u015f bir t\u0259\u015fkilat kimi OYAN H\u0259r\u0259kat\u0131 da hal-haz\u0131rda bu qaralama prosesi il\u0259 \u00fcz-\u00fcz\u0259dir. Yuxar\u0131dak\u0131 10 \u015f\u0259rt\u0259 \u0259saslanan t\u0259liml\u0259r v\u0259 f\u0259rqli layih\u0259l\u0259r m\u00fct\u0259madi olaraq partiya funksionerl\u0259ri t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n t\u0259\u015fkil olunmal\u0131 v\u0259 bu geni\u015f ictimaiyy\u0259t\u0259 t\u0259qdim olunmal\u0131d\u0131r.\n<\/p>\n

\n Horizontal inams\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 aradan qald\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn insanlar\u0131n bir-birin\u0259 olan g\u00fcv\u0259ni a\u015f\u0131lanmal\u0131d\u0131r. Rayonlarda insanlar\u0131n bir-birin\u0259 olan inam\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 g\u00fcv\u0259nini n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaraq h\u00f6kum\u0259t\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 t\u0259\u015fkilatlanma da m\u0259hz rayonlardan ba\u015flamal\u0131d\u0131r. G\u00fcv\u0259n eyni prosesd\u0259 i\u015ftirak ed\u0259n insanlar aras\u0131nda proses boyu yaranan bir fenomendir. \u015e\u0259mkird\u0259 ya\u015fayan Ayaz \u0259min olmal\u0131d\u0131r ki, m\u0259n etiraza \u00e7\u0131xanda Qubada ya\u015fayan Dilar\u0259 d\u0259 \u00e7\u0131xacaq. Buna \u0259min olmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn Ayaz v\u0259 Dilar\u0259 bir-birl\u0259rini \u015f\u0259rti olaraq bu prosesd\u0259 s\u0131namal\u0131d\u0131rlar. Bunun \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259rin bir-birini tan\u0131mas\u0131 vacib deyil. \u018fg\u0259r Ayaz g\u00f6rs\u0259 ki, m\u0259nim \u015e\u0259mkird\u0259ki f\u0259aliyy\u0259tim\u0259 (M\u0259s: \u015e\u0259mkird\u0259ki H.\u018fliyev b\u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fcn yaz\u0131lmas\u0131) Qubadan kiml\u0259rs\u0259 eyni aksiya il\u0259 d\u0259st\u0259k verir, o v\u0259 onun kimil\u0259r f\u0259aliyy\u0259tind\u0259 daha inaml\u0131 olacaqlar. Onlara d\u0259st\u0259k ver\u0259n \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259rin kimlikl\u0259rini tan\u0131masalar da, b\u00f6y\u00fck bir \u015f\u0259b\u0259k\u0259nin \u00fczv\u00fc olduqlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u0259r\u0259k i\u00e7l\u0259rind\u0259 olan qorxu hissini rahatl\u0131qla bo\u011fa bil\u0259rl\u0259r. Bu hadis\u0259l\u0259r m\u00fct\u0259madi qaydada davam etm\u0259kl\u0259 k\u00fctl\u0259vi v\u0259 \u00fcmumxalq etiraz askiyas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131q prosesi ba\u015flamal\u0131d\u0131r. Qeyd etdiyim kimi, s\u00f6hb\u0259t diktatorluqdan gedir v\u0259 h\u0259r k\u0259sd\u0259 qorxu hissi var. He\u00e7 t\u0259sad\u00fcfi deyildir ki, bahala\u015fmaya qar\u015f\u0131 etiraz aksiyalar\u0131 da m\u0259hz rayonlardan ba\u015flam\u0131\u015fd\u0131r v\u0259 m\u00fcxalif\u0259tin prosesl\u0259r\u0259 m\u00fcdaxil\u0259 ed\u0259 bilm\u0259m\u0259si n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 aksiyalar h\u00f6kum\u0259t t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n yat\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r. Bu aksiyalar \u0259g\u0259r t\u0259\u015fkilat t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irils\u0259ydi, Ming\u0259\u00e7evird\u0259 aksiyaya qalxan insan L\u0259nk\u0259randan ona eyni yolla d\u0259st\u0259k g\u0259ldiyini g\u00f6rs\u0259ydi, he\u00e7 vaxt geri add\u0131m atmayacaqd\u0131.\n<\/p>\n

\n Dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n, m\u00fcbariz\u0259 ki\u00e7ik m\u0259qs\u0259dl\u0259rd\u0259n ba\u015flamal\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130nsanlar ilkin olaraq m\u00fcbariz\u0259nin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u0259 v\u0259 u\u011furuna inanmal\u0131d\u0131rlar. X\u0131rda bir q\u0259l\u0259b\u0259 insanlarda \u00f6z\u00fcn\u0259 inam\u0131 formala\u015fd\u0131racaq v\u0259 onlar\u0131 daha q\u0259tiyy\u0259tli add\u0131mlar atma\u011fa s\u00f6vq ed\u0259c\u0259k. Ki\u00e7ik d\u0259st\u0259 il\u0259 b\u00f6y\u00fck iddialara qalxmaq h\u0259m \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc v\u0259 h\u0259m d\u0259 xalq\u0131 aldatmaq dem\u0259kdir. Bu m\u00fcbariz\u0259 u\u011fursuzlu\u011fun qarant\u0131d\u0131r.\n<\/p>\n

\n Bu prosesin ba\u015f tutmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ilkin m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259d\u0259 proses\u0259 rayon yerl\u0259rind\u0259 ziyal\u0131 insanlar c\u0259lb olunmal\u0131d\u0131r. Ziyal\u0131 insanlar \u0259sas\u0259n ideyaya v\u0259 u\u011furlu siyasi mexanizm\u0259 inan\u0131rlar, \u015f\u0259xsl\u0259r\u0259 v\u0259 liderl\u0259r\u0259 deyil. Yuxar\u0131da qeyd edil\u0259n partiyaya aid 10 x\u00fcsusiyy\u0259tl\u0259r bu insanlar\u0131n diqq\u0259tin\u0259 m\u00fct\u0259madi qaydada \u00e7atd\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130nsanlar da \u015f\u0259xs\u0259 v\u0259 \u015f\u0259xsiyy\u0259t\u0259 deyil, partiyan\u0131n t\u0259qdim etdiyi xilasetm\u0259 mexanizmin\u0259 qo\u015fulma\u011fa d\u0259v\u0259t olunmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130nanan insan m\u00fctl\u0259q qo\u015fulacaq v\u0259 qo\u015fulan insan\u0131n kimliyi d\u0259 m\u00fctl\u0259q gizli saxlan\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu insanlara yeti\u015fm\u0259k haz\u0131rk\u0131 z\u0259man\u0259d\u0259 \u00e7\u0259tin bir proses deyil. Sosial \u015f\u0259b\u0259k\u0259l\u0259rin imkanlar\u0131 m\u0259lumat\u0131 \u00f6t\u00fcrm\u0259k ist\u0259diyin \u015f\u0259xsin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yer, ya\u015f, cins v\u0259 h\u0259tta dil bilgil\u0259rin\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 qruplara ay\u0131ra bilir. Bir daha t\u0259krar edir\u0259m ki, ilkin pill\u0259d\u0259 bu insanlar tam gizli formada t\u0259\u015fkilata \u00fczv olunmal\u0131d\u0131r. Onlar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 dig\u0259r \u00fczvl\u0259r\u0259 m\u00fcxt\u0259lif \u0259m\u0259ll\u0259rl\u0259 (aksiyalarla) \u00e7atd\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Qubada ya\u015fayan Dilar\u0259 g\u00f6rs\u0259 ki, \u015e\u0259mkird\u0259 t\u0259\u015fkilat ad\u0131ndan H.\u018fliyevin b\u00fcst\u00fc yaz\u0131l\u0131b (\u015f\u0259rti olaraq) onun kim t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n yaz\u0131lmas\u0131 onu o q\u0259d\u0259r d\u0259 maraqland\u0131rm\u0131r. Bununla ba\u011fl\u0131 at\u0131lacaq add\u0131mlar\u0131n siyah\u0131s\u0131 bu add\u0131mlar\u0131n da\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 risk\u0259 uy\u011fun olaraq t\u0259r\u0259fimizd\u0259n m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n edilmi\u015fdir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

D\u00fczg\u00fcn strategiyan\u0131n haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u0259n birinci qanunu ondan ibar\u0259tdir ki, biz m\u00fcxalif\u0259t olaraq m\u00fcbariz\u0259 apard\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z iqtidar\u0131 d\u00fczg\u00fcn tan\u0131mal\u0131y\u0131q v\u0259 onun imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczg\u00fcn qiym\u0259tl\u0259ndirm\u0259liyik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":71245,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_sitemap_exclude":false,"_sitemap_priority":"","_sitemap_frequency":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-183644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analitika","infinite-scroll-item","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nH\u00f6kum\u0259t\u0259 qar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcbariz\u0259 strategiyas\u0131 - 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