{"id":181816,"date":"2017-01-12T09:51:11","date_gmt":"2017-01-12T09:51:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/article\/oten-ilin-iqtisadi-menzeresi\/"},"modified":"2017-01-12T09:51:11","modified_gmt":"2017-01-12T09:51:11","slug":"oten-ilin-iqtisadi-menzeresi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/oten-ilin-iqtisadi-menzeresi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00d6t\u0259n ilin iqtisadi m\u0259nz\u0259r\u0259si"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n \"\"
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\n
\n 2014, 2015 v\u0259 2016-c\u0131 ill\u0259r\u0259 aid 11 ayl\u0131q sosial-iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rin m\u00fcqayis\u0259li t\u0259hlili
\n <\/i>\n<\/p>\n

\n Yanvar\u0131n 10-da prezident \u0130lham \u018fliyevin s\u0259drliyi il\u0259 \u0259n\u0259n\u0259vi h\u00f6kum\u0259t m\u00fc\u015favir\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259n biri d\u0259 ke\u00e7irildi.\n<\/p>\n

\n M\u00fc\u015favir\u0259 2016-c\u0131 il\u0259 yekun vururdu. Do\u011frusu, ictimaiyy\u0259tin g\u00f6z\u00fcn\u0259 k\u00fcl \u00fcf\u00fcr\u00fclm\u0259sin\u0259 \u00e7ox t\u0259\u0259ss\u00fcf etdim. Guya \u00f6t\u0259n il b\u00f6hran durdurulub. B\u0259s iqtisadi v\u0259 sosial g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r bu haqda n\u0259 deyir? Ger\u00e7\u0259k v\u0259ziyy\u0259t nec\u0259dir?\n<\/p>\n

\n 2014, 2015 v\u0259 2016-c\u0131 ill\u0259r\u0259 aid 11 ayl\u0131q sosial-iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rin m\u00fcqayis\u0259li t\u0259hlilind\u0259n \u00e7\u0131xan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259riniz\u0259 \u00e7atd\u0131r\u0131ram. Fikrimc\u0259, bu n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259r 2016-c\u0131 ilin ger\u00e7\u0259k m\u0259nz\u0259r\u0259si haqq\u0131nda daha dol\u011fun t\u0259s\u0259vv\u00fcr yaratma\u011fa k\u00f6m\u0259k ed\u0259c\u0259k (illik g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r a\u00e7\u0131qlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259, bu yaz\u0131da 11 ayl\u0131q g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r\u0259 istinad olunub).\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n 1)
\n <\/b>
\n Son 2 ild\u0259 \u00dcDM g\u00f6st\u0259ricisi \u00fczr\u0259 g\u0259lirl\u0259r 34,5 milyard dollar m\u0259bl\u0259\u011find\u0259 azal\u0131b (faktiki bazar qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri il\u0259). \u00dcmumi azalman\u0131n 18,5 milyard dollar\u0131 qeyri-neft sah\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 \u0259m\u0259l\u0259 g\u0259lib. Buradak\u0131 azalman\u0131n \u0259g\u0259r 7 milyard dollar\u0131 2015-ci ilin hesab\u0131nad\u0131rsa, 11,5 milyard dollar\u0131 2016-c\u0131 ilin hesab\u0131nad\u0131r. Y\u0259ni 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 qeyri-neft sektorunda g\u0259lirl\u0259rin azalmas\u0131 1,7 d\u0259f\u0259 s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259nib. Dem\u0259li, bu g\u00f6st\u0259rici \u00fczr\u0259 tendensiya 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 k\u0259skin \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 \u00fcz\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya istiqam\u0259t g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcb.\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n 2)
\n <\/b>
\n \u018fg\u0259r qeyri-neft sektoruna 2014-c\u00fc ild\u0259 12 milyard dollar m\u0259bl\u0259\u011find\u0259 kapital yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irilmi\u015fdirs\u0259, bu g\u00f6st\u0259rici 2015-ci ild\u0259 8 milyard dollara, 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 3 milyard dollara d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015fd\u00fcr. Y\u0259ni bu g\u00f6st\u0259rici \u00fczr\u0259 itki m\u0259bl\u0259\u011fi 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 \u0259lav\u0259 olaraq 1 milyard dollar v\u0259 ya 25% artm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r. Son iki ild\u0259 investisiyalar emal sah\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 80%, qeyri-neft s\u0259nayesind\u0259 69%, k\u0259nd t\u0259s\u0259rr\u00fcfat\u0131nda is\u0259 60% azal\u0131b. Bu sah\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 \u0259m\u0259l\u0259 g\u0259l\u0259n itkil\u0259rin uy\u011fun olaraq 75%-i, 55%-i v\u0259 93%-i 2016-c\u0131 ilin pay\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb. Dem\u0259li, x\u00fcsus\u0259n d\u0259 qeyri-neft sah\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 \u201ckapital qoyulu\u015fu\u201d g\u00f6st\u0259ricisi \u00fczr\u0259 trend 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 \u00fcz\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru k\u0259skin istiqam\u0259t d\u0259yi\u015fib.\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n 3)
\n <\/b>
\n 2014-c\u00fc ild\u0259 24-25 milyard dollarl\u0131q d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259si 2015-ci ild\u0259 17 milyard dollara (fakt), 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 9 milyard dollara (g\u00f6zl\u0259nti) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb. Dem\u0259li, d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259si 2015-ci ild\u0259 7 milyard dollar m\u0259bl\u0259\u011find\u0259 ki\u00e7ilibs\u0259, 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 daha 8 milyard dollar ki\u00e7ilib. Bu q\u0259d\u0259r ki\u00e7ilmi\u015f b\u00fcdc\u0259 il\u0259 ciddi iqtisadi v\u0259 sosial t\u00f6fh\u0259l\u0259r verm\u0259yin m\u00fcmk\u00fcnl\u00fcy\u00fc \u015f\u00fcbh\u0259 do\u011furur.\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n 4)
\n <\/b>
\n \u0130stehlak bazar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u0259ri son iki ild\u0259 12 milyard dollar v\u0259 ya 35% h\u0259cmind\u0259 daral\u0131b. Bu q\u0259d\u0259r daralman\u0131n 4 milyard dollar\u0131 2015-ci ilin pay\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcbs\u0259, 8 milyard dollar\u0131 2016-c\u0131 ilin pay\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb. Y\u0259ni sonuncu ild\u0259 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u0259rin ki\u00e7ilm\u0259si 2 d\u0259f\u0259 s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259nib.\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n 5)
\n <\/b>
\n Son iki ild\u0259 \u0259hali g\u0259lirl\u0259ri 18 milyard dollara yax\u0131n azal\u0131b. \u018fg\u0259r bu azalman\u0131n 7 milyard\u0131 2015-ci ild\u0259 yaran\u0131bsa, 11 milyard\u0131 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 yaran\u0131b. Y\u0259ni iki illik itkil\u0259rin 62 faizi 2016-c\u0131 ilin hesab\u0131nad\u0131r.\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n 6)
\n <\/b>
\n Orta ayl\u0131q \u0259m\u0259k haqq\u0131 2014-c\u00fc ild\u0259 566 dollar, 2015-ci ild\u0259 462 dollar, 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 314 dollar olub. Dem\u0259li, son iki ild\u0259 orta ayl\u0131q \u0259m\u0259k haqq\u0131 252 dollar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb. Azalman\u0131n 104 dollar\u0131 2015-ci ilin pay\u0131nad\u0131rsa, 148 dollar\u0131 2016-c\u0131 ilin pay\u0131nad\u0131r. Dem\u0259li, 59% azalma 2016-c\u0131 ilin hesab\u0131nad\u0131r (Qeyd: M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n bu g\u00fcn\u0259 olan r\u0259smi m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si \u00fczr\u0259 hesablamalar g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, orta ayl\u0131q \u0259m\u0259k haqq\u0131 haz\u0131rda 278 dollara q\u0259d\u0259r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcb). Bu g\u00f6st\u0259rici \u00fczr\u0259 tendensiya bu g\u00fcn d\u0259 pisl\u0259\u015fm\u0259kd\u0259 davam edir.\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n 7)
\n <\/b>
\n Yaln\u0131z 2016-c\u0131 ilin 10 ay\u0131nda 6 milyard manat m\u0259bl\u0259\u011find\u0259 kredit resursu \u00f6lk\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131 t\u0259rk edib. Burada diqq\u0259ti c\u0259lb ed\u0259n t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259li tendensiya ondan ibar\u0259tdir ki, geri \u00e7\u0259kil\u0259n kreditl\u0259r t\u0259krar\u0259n iqtisadiyyata d\u00f6nm\u00fcr. Bel\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259t iqtisadi f\u0259all\u0131\u011f\u0131n k\u0259skin \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 z\u0259ifl\u0259m\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b olmaqla sosial-m\u0259i\u015f\u0259t probleml\u0259rinin miqyas\u0131n\u0131 daha da b\u00f6y\u00fcd\u00fcb. Manat\u0131n ucuzla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259siri il\u0259 d\u00f6vriyy\u0259d\u0259 qalan kredit resurslar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131c\u0131l\u0131q qabiliyy\u0259tini itirm\u0259si daha b\u00f6y\u00fck probleml\u0259r\u0259 yol a\u00e7\u0131r.\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n 8)
\n <\/b>
\n \u018fman\u0259t v\u0259 depozitl\u0259r bu g\u00fcn d\u0259 bank sistemini t\u0259rk etm\u0259kd\u0259dir. Yaln\u0131z \u00f6t\u0259n ilin oktyabr ay\u0131nda \u0259hali xarici valyuta \u015f\u0259klind\u0259 saxlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0259man\u0259tl\u0259rin 268 milyon dollar\u0131n\u0131, manat \u015f\u0259klind\u0259 saxlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0259man\u0259tl\u0259rin is\u0259 28 milyon manat\u0131n\u0131 bank sistemind\u0259n \u00e7\u0131xarmaq m\u0259cburiyy\u0259tind\u0259 qal\u0131b. Bu, bir ayda maliyy\u0259 t\u0259\u015fkilatlar\u0131 xarici valyuta depozitl\u0259rinin 350 milyon dollar\u0131n\u0131, manat depozitl\u0259rinin is\u0259 36 milyon manat\u0131n\u0131 banklardan geri \u00e7\u0259kib. Dem\u0259li, \u00f6t\u0259n il banklara v\u0259 milli valyutaya inam sars\u0131lmaqda davam edib.\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n 9)
\n <\/b>
\n M\u00fc\u015favir\u0259d\u0259 anonsu veril\u0259n m\u0259lumata g\u00f6r\u0259, xarici d\u00f6vl\u0259t borcu 8 milyard dollara q\u0259d\u0259r art\u0131b. Bel\u0259 is\u0259, m\u0259lum olur ki, yaln\u0131z 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 xarici d\u00f6vl\u0259t borcu 1 milyard dollardan \u00e7ox v\u0259 ya 16% art\u0131b. M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n bug\u00fcn\u0259 olan r\u0259smi m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si il\u0259 (1,7742) hesablama aparsaq, xarici d\u00f6vl\u0259t borcunun \u00dcDM-d\u0259 pay\u0131n\u0131n 24%-in \u00fcz\u0259rin\u0259 qalxd\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u0259lum olar. Bu hesabla \u00fcmumi d\u00f6vl\u0259t borcu 40%-\u0259 yax\u0131nla\u015f\u0131r.\n<\/p>\n

\n
\n 10)
\n <\/b>
\n Xarici \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irilmi\u015f \u201cCari \u018fm\u0259liyyatlar\u201d \u00fczr\u0259 \u0259g\u0259r 2015-ci ild\u0259 222 milyon dollar m\u0259bl\u0259\u011find\u0259 k\u0259sir yaranm\u0131\u015fd\u0131rsa, 2016-ci ilin ilk 9 ay\u0131nda k\u0259sir m\u0259bl\u0259\u011fi 1,1 milyard dollar\u0131 \u00fcst\u0259l\u0259mi\u015fdir. Dem\u0259li, bu hesab \u00fczr\u0259 2016-c\u0131 ilin 9 ayl\u0131q valyuta itkil\u0259ri 2015-ci ilin illik g\u00f6st\u0259ricisin\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259n 5 d\u0259f\u0259d\u0259n \u00e7ox art\u0131b. \u00d6t\u0259n ilin 9 ayl\u0131q t\u0259diyy\u0259 balans\u0131ndan ayd\u0131n olur ki, \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259n xaric\u0259 maliyy\u0259-kapital ax\u0131nlar\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259y\u0259 daxil olan maliyy\u0259-kapital ax\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 2 milyard dollara q\u0259d\u0259r \u00fcst\u0259l\u0259yib. Xaric\u0259 kapital ax\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259nm\u0259si \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259ki \u0259lveri\u015fsiz investisiya m\u00fchiti il\u0259 birba\u015fa \u0259laq\u0259dard\u0131r. \u0130xrac mallar\u0131n\u0131n strukturunda neft-qaz mallar\u0131n\u0131n x\u00fcsusi \u00e7\u0259kisi (92%-\u0259 yax\u0131n) h\u0259l\u0259 d\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k olaraq qalmaqdad\u0131r. Qeyri neft-qaz mallar\u0131 il\u0259 xarici ticar\u0259td\u0259 idxal ixrac\u0131 6 d\u0259f\u0259d\u0259n \u00e7ox \u00fcst\u0259l\u0259yir. Bu mallarla 9 ayl\u0131q ticar\u0259td\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259miz 4 milyard dollardan \u00e7ox valyuta itkisi verib.\n<\/p>\n

\n Bel\u0259likl\u0259, t\u0259hlil v\u0259 m\u00fcqayis\u0259l\u0259r g\u00f6st\u0259rir ki, yuxar\u0131da sadalanan makroiqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r \u00fczr\u0259 tendensiyalar 2015-ci il\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259n 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 daha da pisl\u0259\u015fib.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u00d6t\u0259n il korrupsiyan\u0131n, monopoliyan\u0131n, haqs\u0131z r\u0259qab\u0259tin qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131nda ciddi add\u0131mlar\u0131n da \u015fahidi ola bilm\u0259dik. Qanunsuzlu\u011fun, m\u0259mur v\u0259 m\u0259hk\u0259m\u0259 \u00f6zba\u015f\u0131nal\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u0259rh\u0259dl\u0259ri 2016-da daha da b\u00f6y\u00fcd\u00fc. \u0130l \u0259rzind\u0259 minl\u0259rl\u0259 i\u015f yerl\u0259ri ba\u011fland\u0131, \u0259m\u0259k haqlar\u0131 v\u0259 t\u0259qa\u00fcdl\u0259rin verilm\u0259sind\u0259 gecikm\u0259l\u0259r ya\u015fand\u0131. \u018fm\u0259k haqlar\u0131, pensiyalar\u0131n, m\u00fcavin\u0259tl\u0259rin m\u0259bl\u0259\u011find\u0259 g\u00f6z\u0259g\u0259limli art\u0131mlar diqq\u0259t \u00e7\u0259km\u0259s\u0259 d\u0259, bazarlarda ham\u0131n\u0131 h\u0259y\u0259canland\u0131ran bahala\u015fma ayaq a\u00e7d\u0131. H\u00f6kum\u0259t t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n suyun, elektrik enerjisinin, t\u0259bii qaz\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin bahala\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 v\u0259 manat\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sinin ucuzla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 inflyasiya s\u0259viyy\u0259sini daha da y\u00fcks\u0259ltdi. Bel\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259t, \u015f\u00fcbh\u0259siz ki, \u0259halinin h\u0259yat s\u0259viyy\u0259sinin k\u0259skin pisl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si il\u0259 m\u00fc\u015fayi\u0259t olundu.\n<\/p>\n

\n Makroiqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259r bu q\u0259d\u0259r pisl\u0259\u015fmi\u015fk\u0259n v\u0259 ya t\u0259n\u0259zz\u00fcl\u00fcn s\u0259rh\u0259dl\u0259ri daha da b\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fk\u0259n b\u00f6hran\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131 haqq\u0131nda t\u0259s\u0259vv\u00fcr v\u0259 ya fikirl\u0259rin h\u00f6kum\u0259t m\u00fc\u015favir\u0259sin\u0259 ayaq a\u00e7mas\u0131 h\u0259m t\u0259\u0259ss\u00fcf, h\u0259m t\u0259\u0259cc\u00fcb, h\u0259m d\u0259 xeyli maraql\u0131 suallar do\u011furur. H\u0259r bir halda m\u00fc\u015favir\u0259d\u0259 s\u0259sl\u0259n\u0259n fikirl\u0259rin \u0259ksin\u0259 olaraq tam \u0259minlikl\u0259 dem\u0259k m\u00fcm\u00fck\u00fcnd\u00fcr ki, sosial-iqtisadi v\u0259ziyy\u0259t \u00f6t\u0259n il daha da a\u011f\u0131rla\u015f\u0131b.
\n
\n 2017-ci il\u0259 bu q\u0259d\u0259r a\u011f\u0131r \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259r alt\u0131nda daxil olmu\u015fuq. Odur ki, 2017-ci ill\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u0259sl\u0259n\u0259n inki\u015faf na\u011f\u0131llar\u0131na da \u00fcmid b\u0259sl\u0259m\u0259y\u0259 \u0259sas yoxdur.\n<\/p>\n

\n \u018flb\u0259tt\u0259 ki, 2016-c\u0131 ild\u0259 he\u00e7 olmasa, \u0259m\u0259li v\u0259 ciddi islahatlar\u0131n \u0259sas\u0131n\u0131 qoymaq olard\u0131. Ancaq bu, ba\u015f verm\u0259di. Bu bax\u0131mdan \u00f6t\u0259n bir illik zaman iqtisadi v\u0259 sosial sah\u0259l\u0259ri b\u00fcr\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f t\u0259n\u0259zz\u00fcl\u00fcn durdurulmas\u0131 bax\u0131m\u0131ndan itirilmi\u015f vaxt kimi d\u0259y\u0259rl\u0259ndirilm\u0259lidir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2014, 2015 v\u0259 2016-c\u0131 ill\u0259r\u0259 aid 11 ayl\u0131q sosial-iqtisadi g\u00f6st\u0259ricil\u0259rin m\u00fcqayis\u0259li t\u0259hlili<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":72481,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_sitemap_exclude":false,"_sitemap_priority":"","_sitemap_frequency":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-181816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analitika","infinite-scroll-item","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00d6t\u0259n ilin iqtisadi m\u0259nz\u0259r\u0259si - MEYDAN.TV<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/oten-ilin-iqtisadi-menzeresi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"az_AZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00d6t\u0259n ilin iqtisadi m\u0259nz\u0259r\u0259si - 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