{"id":168978,"date":"2015-07-18T16:01:21","date_gmt":"2015-07-18T16:01:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/article\/neft-fondunda-ciddi-itkiler-olacaq\/"},"modified":"2015-07-18T16:01:21","modified_gmt":"2015-07-18T16:01:21","slug":"neft-fondunda-ciddi-itkiler-olacaq","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/neft-fondunda-ciddi-itkiler-olacaq\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Neft Fondunda ciddi itkil\u0259r olacaq&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n  <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/29547\/\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29547\"\/><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n  <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/29547\/\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29547\"\/><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\n  <i><br \/>\n    Natiq C\u0259f\u0259rli: &#8220;Neftin\u00a0qiym\u0259t qalxa bil\u0259r, amma, bu, fundamental s\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259r\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 olmayacaq&#8221;<br \/>\n  <\/i>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n  &#8220;Az\u0259rbaycan Neft Fondu son d\u0259f\u0259 aprel ay\u0131n\u0131n 1-d\u0259 \u00f6z ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259cmini a\u00e7\u0131qlay\u0131b: 34,9 mlrd. dollar. Bu r\u0259q\u0259mi \u0259sas g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u0259r\u0259k b\u0259zi hesablamalar aparmaq olar. Bu il Neft Fondunun \u00fcmumi x\u0259rcl\u0259ri 11,230 mlrd. dollar olacaq. G\u0259lirl\u0259ri is\u0259 planla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 kimi 9,7 mlrd. dollar deyil, \u0259n yax\u015f\u0131 halda 7 mlrd. dollar olacaq. \u00c7\u00fcnki g\u0259lirl\u0259r 90 dollardan hesablanm\u0131\u015fd\u0131, indi is\u0259 ortalama 6 ay\u0131n qiym\u0259ti 57,30 dollar olub. Dem\u0259li, bu ilin sonuna Neft Fondunda, \u0259n yax\u015f\u0131 halda 30-31 mlrd. dollar qalacaq&#8221;.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n  Bu s\u00f6zl\u0259ri iqtisad\u00e7\u0131 Natiq C\u0259f\u0259rli \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn Facebook s\u0259hif\u0259sind\u0259 yaz\u0131b. &#8220;Yax\u0131n iki ilin ssenaril\u0259rin\u0259 baxaq: 2016-2017-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259 optimist ssenari il\u0259 (qiym\u0259t 60-65 dollar aras\u0131 olsa) Neft Fonduna 2 il\u0259 13,5 mlrd dollar, realist ssenari il\u0259 (neft 50-55 dollar aras\u0131 olsa) 11,5 mlrd. dollar, pessimist ssenari il\u0259 is\u0259 (neft 40-45 dollar aras\u0131 olsa) 9,5 mlrd. dollar pul daxil olacaq&#8221;- dey\u0259 iqtisad\u00e7\u0131 qeyd edib.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n  Nat\u0131q C\u0259f\u0259rli Neft Fondunun yax\u0131n 2 ild\u0259ki qa\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz x\u0259rcl\u0259rini sadalay\u0131b: &#8220;1) B\u00fcdc\u0259y\u0259 20 mlrd. dollar, 2) \u00d6hd\u0259likl\u0259r g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fcz iri qaz layih\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 8 mlrd. dollar, 3) B\u00fcdc\u0259d\u0259n k\u0259nar Fondun x\u0259rcl\u0259rin\u0259 2,5 mlrd. dollar. C\u0259mi: 30,5 mlrd. dollar.<br \/>\n  <br \/>\n  Bu g\u00fcn\u0259 olan qal\u0131q v\u0259 real (orta) ssenari il\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259tl\u0259rini g\u00f6t\u00fcrs\u0259k: 31 mlrd (qal\u0131q) + 11,5 mlrd. = 42,5 mlrd. dollar.\n<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n  <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/29553\/\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29553\"\/><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\n  Dem\u0259li, 2017-ci ilin dekabr ay\u0131na Neft Fondunda: 42,5 \u2013 30,5 = 12 mlrd. dollar qalma ehtimal\u0131 var.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n  2018-ci ilin \u00f6hd\u0259likl\u0259ri is\u0259: 1) B\u00fcdc\u0259 &#8211; 11-12 mlrd (se\u00e7ki ilidir), 2) Qaz layih\u0259l\u0259ri -5-6 mlrd (yekunla\u015fma\u011fa gedir), 3) B\u00fcdc\u0259d\u0259n k\u0259nar x\u0259rcl\u0259r \u2013 1,5-2 mlrd. C\u0259mi: 20 mlrd. dollar.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n  2017-ci ilin sonuna qal\u0131q 12 mlrd. + 6 mlrd. (2018-ci ild\u0259 hasilat da ciddi azalacaq, amma t\u0259xmin\u0259n, bu q\u0259d\u0259r v\u0259sait daxil olacaq) = 18 mlrd. dollar.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n  N\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 al\u0131n ki, Neft Fondunda b\u00fct\u00fcn v\u0259saitl\u0259r h\u0259m\u0259n likvidliy\u0259 \u00e7evrilm\u0259li v\u0259saitl\u0259r deyil, q\u0131z\u0131l, da\u015f\u0131nmaz \u0259mlak, qiym\u0259tli ka\u011f\u0131zlar aktivl\u0259rin, az qala 50 faizini t\u0259\u015fkil edir, dem\u0259li, onlar\u0131 n\u0259\u011fdil\u0259\u015fdir\u0259rk\u0259n d\u0259 ciddi itkil\u0259r olacaq: m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, da\u015f\u0131nmaz \u0259mlak\u0131n, q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259ti ciddi enib. Onu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ki, 2018-ci ilin yanvar ay\u0131n\u0131n 1-\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259nin d\u00f6vl\u0259t v\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259t t\u0259minat\u0131 il\u0259 al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f borclar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259cmi 20 mlrd. dollara \u00e7atacaq.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n  Bel\u0259likl\u0259, 2018-ci, prezident se\u00e7kisi ilin\u0259 olan v\u0259ziyy\u0259t bel\u0259 ola bil\u0259r: \u00d6lk\u0259nin h\u0259min ilin yanvar\u0131n 1-\u0259 qalan ehtiyat\u0131 \u2013 12 mlrd. dollar + h\u0259min il g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n g\u0259lir 6 mlrd. dollar = 18 mlrd. dollar. Amma 2018-ci ild\u0259 g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n x\u0259rcl\u0259r \u2013 20 mlrd. dollar, h\u0259min il\u0259 xarici borc \u2013 20 mlrd. dollar = 40 mlrd. dollar&#8221;.\n<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\">\n  <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/29556\/\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29556\"\/><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\n  \u0130qtisad\u015f\u0131 yaranacaq iradlara da cavab verib: &#8220;Bil\u0259r\u0259kd\u0259n M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 hesaba qatmad\u0131m, \u00e7\u00fcnki MB \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn v\u0259 \u00fcmumiyy\u0259tl\u0259, bank sistemin v\u0259ziyy\u0259ti xarabd\u0131r, o v\u0259sait m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259nin saxlan\u0131lmas\u0131na, bank sisteminin ayaqda tutulmas\u0131na x\u0259rcl\u0259nib-bit\u0259c\u0259k. Sual oluna bil\u0259r ki, b\u00fcdc\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259rini azaldacaqlar: a) siyasi sistem k\u0259skin azalmaya getm\u0259z, buna d\u00f6z\u0259 bilm\u0259z, b) k\u0259skin azalma sosial partlay\u0131\u015f dem\u0259k olar, h\u0259m d\u0259 sistemdaxili q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259rin geni\u015f v\u0259 a\u00e7\u0131q m\u00fcharib\u0259si il\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259n\u0259r, Sual olana bil\u0259r ki, neft bird\u0259n qalxd\u0131, 2011-ci ild\u0259, neftin qiym\u0259ti 120 dollar olanda h\u0259r \u00e7\u0131x\u0131\u015f\u0131mda, m\u00fcsahib\u0259l\u0259rimd\u0259 deyirdim ki, neft yax\u0131n g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259kd\u0259 k\u0259skin ucuzla\u015facaq, m\u0259n\u0259, h\u0259tta dostlar\u0131m bel\u0259 d\u0259li kimi bax\u0131rd\u0131lar, m\u0259n falabaxan deyil\u0259m, sad\u0259c\u0259, h\u0259r g\u00fcn 3-4 saat\u0131m\u0131 bu m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 ciddi, elmi ara\u015fd\u0131rmlara s\u0259rf edir\u0259m. B\u0259li, qiym\u0259t qalxa bil\u0259r, amma, bu, fundamental s\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259r\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 olmayacaq, ancaq iri, b\u00f6y\u00fck m\u00fcharib\u0259l\u0259r m\u00fcv\u0259qq\u0259ti olaraq neftin qiym\u0259tini qald\u0131ra bil\u0259r&#8221;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Natiq C\u0259f\u0259rli: &#8220;Neftin qiym\u0259t qalxa bil\u0259r, amma, bu, fundamental s\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259r\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 olmayacaq&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":29547,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_sitemap_exclude":false,"_sitemap_priority":"","_sitemap_frequency":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-168978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-xeberler","infinite-scroll-item","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - 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