{"id":165589,"date":"2014-10-15T19:40:17","date_gmt":"2014-10-15T19:40:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/article\/azerbaycanda-postneft-dovru-2-3-ildir-baslayib\/"},"modified":"2014-10-15T19:40:17","modified_gmt":"2014-10-15T19:40:17","slug":"azerbaycanda-postneft-dovru-2-3-ildir-baslayib","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/azerbaycanda-postneft-dovru-2-3-ildir-baslayib\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cAz\u0259rbaycanda postneft d\u00f6vr\u00fc 2-3 ildir ba\u015flay\u0131b\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n \"\"
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\n
\n \u201cNeft Fondunun b\u00fcdc\u0259sind\u0259 3 milyard manat yar\u0131ma yax\u0131n k\u0259sir g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir\u201d
\n <\/i>\n<\/p>\n

\n H\u00f6kum\u0259t 2015-ci ilin b\u00fcdc\u0259sini Milli M\u0259clis\u0259 t\u0259qdim edib. \u00d6t\u0259n h\u0259ft\u0259 prezident Nazirl\u0259r Kabinetinin m\u00fc\u015favir\u0259si ke\u00e7ir\u0259nd\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259tin\u0259 x\u00fcsusi diqq\u0259t y\u00f6n\u0259ld\u0259nd\u0259, m\u00fczakir\u0259l\u0259rin maraq do\u011furaca\u011f\u0131 sezilirdi. \u018fsas\u0259n d\u0259 bedc\u0259d\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259tinin 90 dollardan g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fclm\u0259si. Amma oktyabr\u0131n 14-n\u0259 olan m\u0259lumata g\u00f6r\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259ti 83 dollar civar\u0131ndad\u0131r. \u0130qtisad\u00e7\u0131 R\u00f6v\u015f\u0259n A\u011fayevl\u0259 s\u00f6hb\u0259timizd\u0259 t\u0259qdim olunan b\u00fcdc\u0259 layih\u0259sinin do\u011furdu\u011fu suallara cavab alma\u011fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015fd\u0131q.\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\n –
\n
\n R\u00f6v\u015f\u0259n b\u0259y, b\u00fcdc\u0259d\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259tinin 90 dollardan g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fclm\u0259sini yanl\u0131\u015f hesab etmisiniz, s\u0259b\u0259b n\u0259d\u0259n ibar\u0259tdir?
\n <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n – \u00a0 \u00c7\u00fcnki neftin g\u00f6st\u0259ril\u0259n qiym\u0259td\u0259n daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u0259c\u0259yi il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 Beyn\u0259lxalq Valyuta Fondu, D\u00fcnya Bank\u0131, Beyn\u0259lxalq Energetika Agentliyi kimi qurumlar a\u00e7\u0131qlama yayaraq neftin t\u0259labat\u0131n\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, x\u00fcsus\u0259n d\u0259 neft iqtisadiyyat\u0131nda t\u0259hlill\u0259r\u0259 \u0259saslanan b\u00f6hran g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259rini ifad\u0259 edibl\u0259r. Ciddi iqtisadi institutlar Avropa iqtisadiyyat\u0131ndak\u0131 meyll\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alaraq neft\u0259 t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n azala bil\u0259c\u0259yini g\u00f6zl\u0259yirl\u0259r. \u0130kinci g\u00f6zl\u0259nti odur ki, AB\u015e \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn enerji m\u00fcst\u0259qilliyini t\u0259min etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn ciddi add\u0131mlar at\u0131r. Faktiki neft v\u0259 qaz\u0131n idxal\u0131n\u0131 tam dayand\u0131r\u0131b, 1971-ci ild\u0259 Amerika \u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k neft hasilat\u0131na nail olmu\u015fdu, bu g\u00fcn h\u0259m ehtiyatlar\u0131 d\u00f6vriyy\u0259y\u0259 burax\u0131r, h\u0259m \u015fist qaz-neftinin son 2 ild\u0259 hasilat\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 v\u0259 maya d\u0259y\u0259rinin d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si bu \u00f6lk\u0259nin d\u00fcnya xammal bazar\u0131na k\u0259skin ekspansiyas\u0131n\u0131 yarad\u0131b. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlarla b\u0259rab\u0259r geopolitik amili d\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alanda dediyim t\u0259sdiql\u0259nir. Amerikan\u0131n Rusiyaya qar\u015f\u0131 neft amilind\u0259n istifad\u0259 etm\u0259yi, \u0259sas\u0259n d\u0259 \u00f6t\u0259n \u0259srin 80-ci ill\u0259rinin ortalar\u0131nda bu add\u0131m\u0131 faktiki atm\u0131\u015fd\u0131. SSR\u0130-nin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u00fcr\u0259tl\u0259nm\u0259sind\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259tinin 80-ci ill\u0259rin ortalar\u0131ndan 90-c\u0131 ill\u0259r\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r k\u0259skin d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si rol oynay\u0131b. B\u00fct\u00fcn bu g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259ri v\u0259 t\u0259hlill\u0259ri n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alanda neftin g\u0259l\u0259n ilki qiym\u0259tinin 80 dollar civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. H\u0259tta OPEK-in \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck neft hasilat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan S\u0259udiyy\u0259 \u018fr\u0259bistan\u0131n\u0131nda da h\u00f6kum\u0259t s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 a\u00e7\u0131qlamalar verirl\u0259r ki, bu \u00f6lk\u0259 80 dollarl\u0131q s\u0259viyy\u0259d\u0259 qiym\u0259t\u0259 haz\u0131rd\u0131r. Bu bax\u0131mdan m\u0259n Az\u0259rbaycan h\u00f6kum\u0259tinin daha konservativ yana\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259yirdim. Bilirsiniz, b\u00fcdc\u0259nin deyil\u0259n \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 qurulmas\u0131 o dem\u0259kdir ki, h\u00f6kum\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259ni icra etm\u0259lidir. Art\u0131q g\u0259l\u0259n il Neft Fondunun b\u00fcdc\u0259sind\u0259 3 milyard manat yar\u0131ma yax\u0131n k\u0259sir g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir.\n<\/p>\n

\n –
\n
\n Niy\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 k\u0259sir yaranmal\u0131d\u0131r?
\n <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n – \u00a0 Neft Fondunun g\u0259l\u0259n il 8-10 milyard dollarl\u0131q g\u0259liri g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir, amma 12,4 milyard s\u0259viyy\u0259sind\u0259 x\u0259rci olacaq. Dem\u0259li 3, 5 milyard manat k\u0259sir ehtimal\u0131 var v\u0259 k\u0259sir b\u00fcdc\u0259 transferl\u0259riyl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Bu il h\u00f6kum\u0259t Neft Fondundan 9,3 milyard manat proqnozla\u015fd\u0131rm\u0131\u015fd\u0131, g\u0259l\u0259n il \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn is\u0259 1 milyard manat art\u0131r\u0131b. H\u0259m d\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n layih\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 Neft Fondunun \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259ri art\u0131r. N\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 biz el\u0259 bir m\u0259nz\u0259r\u0259yl\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015firik ki, d\u00fcnyada neftin qiym\u0259tinin k\u0259skin azalmas\u0131 v\u0259 Az\u0259rbaycanda neft hasilat\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 proqnozlar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu bir zamanda h\u00f6kum\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259y\u0259 daha q\u0259na\u0259tcil yana\u015fmaq \u0259v\u0259zin\u0259 6 faiz\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r art\u0131r\u0131b. Y\u0259ni b\u00fcdc\u0259nin g\u0259lir v\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259rind\u0259 1 milyard manat art\u0131m var, bunun m\u0259nb\u0259yi d\u0259 Neft Fondunun v\u0259saitl\u0259ridir. Bu bax\u0131mdan m\u0259n demi\u015fdim ki, h\u00f6kum\u0259t bir az m\u00fchafiz\u0259kar yana\u015f\u0131b neftin qiym\u0259tini 80 dollardan g\u00f6t\u00fcrs\u0259ydi, b\u00fcdc\u0259nin icras\u0131nda itkil\u0259ri aradan qald\u0131ra bil\u0259rdi.\n<\/p>\n

\n –
\n
\n Neftin qiym\u0259ti b\u00fcdc\u0259d\u0259 90 dollardan g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcls\u0259, hans\u0131 f\u0259sadlar yarana bil\u0259r?
\n <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n – \u00a0 \u018fg\u0259r bel\u0259 olarsa v\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259ti 80 dollara d\u00fc\u015f\u0259c\u0259ks\u0259, biz h\u0259r 10 dollarda indiki hasilat \u00e7\u0259r\u00e7iv\u0259sind\u0259 1,5-1,8 milyard manata q\u0259d\u0259r itki ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131q. Y\u0259ni h\u00f6kum\u0259tin g\u0259lirl\u0259ri azal\u0131r. Bel\u0259 olarsa, biz 1,5 milyard\u0131 hardan \u00e7\u0131xartmal\u0131y\u0131q? Qeyri-neft sektorumuzun vergi potensial\u0131 geni\u015f deyil. Bir \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259ki qeyri-neft s\u0259nayesinin \u00dcDM-da \u00a0pay\u0131 5 faizdirs\u0259, 1,5 milyard manat vergi y\u0131\u011fmaq m\u00fcmk\u00fcn deyil. \u00dcst\u0259g\u0259l xidm\u0259t, ticari, tikinti sektoru daha \u00e7ox d\u00f6vl\u0259t sifari\u015fl\u0259riyl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Sabah b\u00fcdc\u0259d\u0259 problem yarananda, y\u0259ni d\u00f6vl\u0259t sifari\u015fl\u0259rinin \u00a0azalaca\u011f\u0131 riski yarananda bu m\u00fc\u0259ssis\u0259l\u0259rin n\u0259inki vergi potensial\u0131 azalacaq, \u0259ksin\u0259 onlar\u0131n d\u00f6vriliyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u0259c\u0259k. Bunlar ham\u0131s\u0131 neft\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 riskl\u0259rdir. Ona g\u00f6r\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259tinin 90 dollar g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fclm\u0259si riski odur ki, sabah Neft Fondundan 10,3 yox, 10-12 milyard manat ehtiyatlara \u0259l ata bil\u0259rl\u0259r. Hans\u0131 ki, h\u00f6kum\u0259t bunu t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik \u201cyast\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d kimi uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli elan edib, y\u0259ni h\u0259m valyuta m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sinin qorunmas\u0131nda, h\u0259m b\u00fcdc\u0259nin icras\u0131nda probleml\u0259rin yaranaca\u011f\u0131 halda Neft Fondunu bir n\u00f6v s\u0131\u011fortam\u0131z kimi t\u0259qdim edir. \u00a0Bel\u0259 olanda, Neft Fondunun ehtiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u0259ridilm\u0259si riskiyl\u0259 \u00fczl\u0259\u015f\u0259 bil\u0259rik.\n<\/p>\n

\n –
\n
\n \u0130st\u0259r-ist\u0259m\u0259z sual yaran\u0131r, neftin qiym\u0259tini 90 dollardan g\u00f6t\u00fcrm\u0259kl\u0259 icmal v\u0259 d\u00f6vl\u0259t b\u00fcdc\u0259sinin k\u0259sirini \u00f6rtm\u0259k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacaqm\u0131?
\n <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n – \u00a0 Yaln\u0131z Neft Fondunun ehtiyatlar\u0131 hesab\u0131na m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacaq. \u018fg\u0259r 2015-ci ild\u0259 Neft Fondunun g\u0259lirl\u0259ri 8-10, x\u0259rcl\u0259ri 12-14 milyard manat g\u00f6zl\u0259nilirs\u0259, avtomatik 3,5 milyardl\u0131q k\u0259sir yaran\u0131r. Bu k\u0259sir d\u0259 Neft Fondunun ehtiyatlar\u0131 hesab\u0131na \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u0259 bil\u0259r. Bir m\u0259qam\u0131 vur\u011fulamaq ist\u0259rdim, Neft Fondunun g\u0259lirl\u0259ri son 4-5 ild\u0259 yaranmay\u0131b, \u0259ksin\u0259 bu ill\u0259rd\u0259 v\u0259saitl\u0259ri tam x\u0259rcl\u0259nib. Faktiki, 2006-2011-ci ill\u0259r \u0259rzind\u0259 neftin qiym\u0259ti d\u00fcnya bazar\u0131nda qalxanda, h\u00f6kum\u0259t bir q\u0259d\u0259r x\u0259rcl\u0259m\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 haz\u0131r deyildi, ona g\u00f6r\u0259 fonda n\u0259 y\u0131\u011f\u0131l\u0131bsa, o zaman y\u0131\u011f\u0131l\u0131b. H\u00f6kum\u0259t son ill\u0259r h\u0259min y\u0131\u011f\u0131mla \u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fcr v\u0259 ictimaiyy\u0259td\u0259 d\u0259 t\u0259skinlik yarad\u0131blar ki, narahat olmay\u0131n, 50 milyard dollarl\u0131q valyuta ehtiyat\u0131m\u0131z var. Bu v\u0259saitd\u0259n \u00a0h\u0259m b\u00fcdc\u0259nin icras\u0131nda problem olanda istifad\u0259 edirl\u0259r, h\u0259m d\u0259 valyuta q\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 almaqla manat\u0131n t\u0259minat\u0131nda… Amma bu g\u00fcn m\u0259lum oldub ki, proses tez ba\u015flad\u0131. D\u00fczd\u00fcr, Az\u0259rbaycanda postneft d\u00f6vr\u00fc 2-3 ildir ba\u015flay\u0131b, neft hasilat\u0131 azalma\u011fa ba\u015flayanda, qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin k\u0259skin azalmas\u0131 postneft d\u00f6vr\u00fcn\u00fc bir az da q\u0131saltd\u0131. Bel\u0259likl\u0259, biz hasilat\u0131n azalmas\u0131 d\u00f6vr\u00fcyl\u0259 b\u0259rab\u0259r qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin k\u0259skin azalmas\u0131 m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259sin\u0259 daxil oluruq.\n<\/p>\n

\n –
\n
\n G\u0259l\u0259n ilin b\u00fcdc\u0259sind\u0259 h\u00fcquq-m\u00fchafiz\u0259 orqanlar\u0131na, sosial v\u0259 elm sah\u0259sin\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259r azalsa da, investitsiya x\u0259rcl\u0259ri art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131b. Bunu nec\u0259 izah ed\u0259rdiniz?
\n <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n – \u00a0 H\u00fcquq-m\u00fchafiz\u0259 orqanlar\u0131nda azalma \u00e7ox c\u00fczidir v\u0259 m\u0259n bunu he\u00e7 azalma adland\u0131rmazd\u0131m. C\u0259mi 1 faiz, manatla g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fckd\u0259, 13 milyon manatl\u0131q azalma var, bu, ciddi v\u0259 fundamental azalma deyil. Amma raz\u0131yam ki, x\u0259rcl\u0259rin art\u0131m\u0131nda \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck pay tikinti x\u0259rcl\u0259ridir. T\u0259xmin\u0259n 1,1 milyard manat, bunun 670 milyon manat\u0131, 60 faizd\u0259n \u00e7ox edir, tikinti-investisitya x\u0259rcl\u0259rinin pay\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr. \u0130kinci yerd\u0259 m\u00fcdafi\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259ri g\u0259lir, 140 milyon manat art\u0131m proqnozla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc yerd\u0259 s\u0259hiyy\u0259. Bu 3 b\u00f6lm\u0259 \u00fcmumi b\u00fcdc\u0259 x\u0259rcl\u0259ri art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n 90 faizind\u0259n \u00e7oxunu t\u0259min edir. Bu da t\u0259biidir, \u00e7\u00fcnki h\u00f6kum\u0259t \u00fcz\u0259rin\u0259 b\u00f6y\u00fck \u00f6hd\u0259likl\u0259r g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcb. G\u0259l\u0259n il Bak\u0131 Avropa Olimpiya yar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, h\u0259m d\u0259 \u0259vv\u0259lki ill\u0259rd\u0259 ba\u015flanan iri infrastruktur layih\u0259l\u0259ri var. Bel\u0259 v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259tin investisiya x\u0259rcl\u0259rini art\u0131rmas\u0131 qa\u00e7\u0131lmazd\u0131r. T\u0259kc\u0259 Bak\u0131 Avropa Olimpiya yar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na 1,3 milyard manat ayr\u0131l\u0131b. \u018fvv\u0259lki il\u0259rd\u0259 2,2 milyard manat x\u0259rcl\u0259nmi\u015fdi. \u00dcmumiyy\u0259tl\u0259, son ill\u0259r investisiya x\u0259rcl\u0259ri b\u00fcdc\u0259nin \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck x\u0259rc madd\u0259si olub.\n<\/p>\n

\n –
\n
\n B\u00fcdc\u0259yl\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 m\u00fczakir\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 enerji da\u015f\u0131y\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n dekabr, yaxud g\u0259l\u0259n ilin yanvar\u0131nda artaca\u011f\u0131 proqnozu s\u0259sl\u0259ndi. \u0130nan\u0131rd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 hesab edirsinizmi?
\n <\/b>\n<\/p>\n

\n – \u00a0 M\u0259n inanm\u0131ram. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 ondad\u0131r ki, h\u00f6kum\u0259tin t\u0259qdim etdiyi b\u00fcdc\u0259 buna imkan vermir. H\u0259m d\u0259 \u00f6t\u0259n il iqtisadi x\u0259rc madd\u0259l\u0259ri k\u0259skin artm\u0131\u015fd\u0131, bundan \u0259lav\u0259 h\u00f6kum\u0259t g\u0259l\u0259n askiz vergid\u0259n daxilolmalar\u0131 azlatma\u011fa planla\u015fd\u0131r\u0131r. \u0130zah\u0131 da budur ki, aksiz d\u0259r\u0259cl\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259r g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir, t\u0259s\u0259vv\u00fcr edirsiniz, bir c\u00fcml\u0259lik izah. \u018fg\u0259r neftin qiym\u0259ti k\u0259skin \u015f\u0259kild\u0259 d\u00fc\u015f\u0259rs\u0259, h\u00f6kum\u0259tin enerji da\u015f\u0131y\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131nda art\u0131m ed\u0259c\u0259yini g\u00f6zl\u0259mir\u0259m. Birinci s\u0259b\u0259b odur ki, neftin qiym\u0259ti d\u00fc\u015f\u0259nd\u0259 siyasi h\u0259ssasl\u0131q da art\u0131r, x\u00fcsusil\u0259 2015-ci il parlament se\u00e7kil\u0259ri ili v\u0259 Bak\u0131 Olimpiya Oyunlar\u0131 ilidir. Se\u00e7ki olmasayd\u0131, bu bar\u0259d\u0259 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u0259k olard\u0131. \u0130kinci s\u0259b\u0259b, b\u00fcdc\u0259d\u0259n d\u0259 bu ehtimal g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcr. B\u00fct\u00fcn hallarda b\u00fcdc\u0259 paketini tam \u0259ld\u0259 ed\u0259nd\u0259n sonra tam n\u0259s\u0259 dem\u0259k olacaq.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cNeft Fondunun b\u00fcdc\u0259sind\u0259 3 milyard manat yar\u0131ma yax\u0131n k\u0259sir g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":14879,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_sitemap_exclude":false,"_sitemap_priority":"","_sitemap_frequency":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-165589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-xeberler","infinite-scroll-item","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33","no-featured-image-padding"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u201cAz\u0259rbaycanda postneft d\u00f6vr\u00fc 2-3 ildir ba\u015flay\u0131b\u201d - MEYDAN.TV<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.meydan.tv\/az\/article\/azerbaycanda-postneft-dovru-2-3-ildir-baslayib\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"az_AZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u201cAz\u0259rbaycanda postneft d\u00f6vr\u00fc 2-3 ildir ba\u015flay\u0131b\u201d - 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